The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Derek
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« Reply #5275 on: July 11, 2010, 10:22:14 PM »

Rasmussen (July 11)Sad

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 49/50 with Rasmussen?

He's that high almost once a week. He varies between 44 and 47 for the most part in the past 6 months. He's gotten as low as 41% once.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5276 on: July 11, 2010, 10:47:31 PM »

one thing i've learned from watching Rass polls for the last year or so, is that you should always expect generally pretty wide fluctuations in the day-to-day numbers.  If a trend holds for a week or two, then you might be able to consider it to be statistically significant.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5277 on: July 12, 2010, 08:48:09 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.


Either actual movement for Obama, or a bad sample.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5278 on: July 12, 2010, 09:17:02 AM »

Rasmussen: Maryland 57/43
link

SD & WV



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5279 on: July 12, 2010, 12:02:14 PM »

Maryland (Rasmussen)

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

    42% Strongly approve

    15% Somewhat approve

      9% Somewhat disapprove

    34% Strongly disapprove

      0% Not sure

Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 2-3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    20% Strongly approve
    21% Somewhat approve
    13% Somewhat disapprove
    45% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  96
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 66
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......






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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5280 on: July 12, 2010, 12:42:49 PM »

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.

Pay no attention to the map covered in a sharply disapproving mustard yellow. It is merely there to add delicious flavor to Obama's hot dog of a victory romp.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5281 on: July 12, 2010, 12:44:27 PM »

Indiana is 43% Approve, 56% Disapprove.

You posted the June numbers, pbrower ... Wink

(Not that it matters for your map)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5282 on: July 12, 2010, 12:54:33 PM »


(correction noted here:

Indiana is 43% Approve, 56% Disapprove.

You posted the June numbers, pbrower ... Wink

(Not that it matters for your map)

Maryland (Rasmussen)

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

    42% Strongly approve

    15% Somewhat approve

      9% Somewhat disapprove

    34% Strongly disapprove

      0% Not sure

Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 2-3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    20% Strongly approve
    21% Somewhat approve
    13% Somewhat disapprove
    45% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  96
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 66
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......







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Smid
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« Reply #5283 on: July 12, 2010, 09:02:33 PM »

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.

Pay no attention to the map covered in a sharply disapproving mustard yellow. It is merely there to add delicious flavor to Obama's hot dog of a victory romp.

41% Strongly or Somewhat Approve, 45% Strongly Disapprove. At this stage more people are saying "Heck No" than either "Definitely Yes" or "I'll Probably Vote for Him."
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #5284 on: July 12, 2010, 09:13:43 PM »

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.

Pay no attention to the map covered in a sharply disapproving mustard yellow. It is merely there to add delicious flavor to Obama's hot dog of a victory romp.

41% Strongly or Somewhat Approve, 45% Strongly Disapprove. At this stage more people are saying "Heck No" than either "Definitely Yes" or "I'll Probably Vote for Him."

Much will depend on who the Reactionary Party nominates as well as factors such as whether or not the economy has rebounded nicely, there are no unpopular foreign wars or major scandals directly implicating him
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Vepres
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« Reply #5285 on: July 12, 2010, 09:15:30 PM »

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.

Pay no attention to the map covered in a sharply disapproving mustard yellow. It is merely there to add delicious flavor to Obama's hot dog of a victory romp.

41% Strongly or Somewhat Approve, 45% Strongly Disapprove. At this stage more people are saying "Heck No" than either "Definitely Yes" or "I'll Probably Vote for Him."

Much will depend on who the Reactionary Party nominates as well as factors such as whether or not the economy has rebounded nicely, there are no unpopular foreign wars or major scandals directly implicating him

He's basically taken ownership of Afghanistan by surging troops.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #5286 on: July 12, 2010, 09:19:12 PM »

Indiana -- marginally contestable, a bad sign for the GOP.

Pay no attention to the map covered in a sharply disapproving mustard yellow. It is merely there to add delicious flavor to Obama's hot dog of a victory romp.

41% Strongly or Somewhat Approve, 45% Strongly Disapprove. At this stage more people are saying "Heck No" than either "Definitely Yes" or "I'll Probably Vote for Him."

Much will depend on who the Reactionary Party nominates as well as factors such as whether or not the economy has rebounded nicely, there are no unpopular foreign wars or major scandals directly implicating him

He's basically taken ownership of Afghanistan by surging troops.

Yep and he'll own a double-dip recession should it come too
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Derek
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« Reply #5287 on: July 12, 2010, 10:58:40 PM »

Anyone seen recent numbers in MN? I haven't seen that in 2 months. I forget where I saw a poll showing that only 46% of voters approve of him in CA.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5288 on: July 13, 2010, 08:28:22 AM »

CA (Field Poll): 54% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2345.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5289 on: July 13, 2010, 08:31:45 AM »

CO (Rasmussen): 41% Approve, 59% Disapprove

Link
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J. J.
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« Reply #5290 on: July 13, 2010, 09:25:21 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 52% +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.


A good Obama sample dropped off, but there might have been some slight upward movement as well.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5291 on: July 13, 2010, 11:17:40 AM »

NV (Rasmussen): 48% Approve, 52% Disapprove

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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5292 on: July 13, 2010, 11:19:42 AM »

NV, IN, CA, & CO


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5293 on: July 13, 2010, 11:41:35 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2010, 04:39:08 PM by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 8, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    29% Strongly approve

    12% Somewhat approve

      7% Somewhat disapprove

    52% Strongly disapprove

      0% Not sure

Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 7-8, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       20% Strongly approve
       23% Somewhat approve
       11% Somewhat disapprove
       45% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

NV update -- no real change

 CA -- Field Poll, likewise



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  96
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 66
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......






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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5294 on: July 13, 2010, 11:46:21 AM »

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.
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« Reply #5295 on: July 13, 2010, 01:31:26 PM »

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.

Once again... we are TWO YEARS AND 4 MONTHS FROM ELECTION DAY!!!!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5296 on: July 13, 2010, 01:39:10 PM »

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.

Once again... we are TWO YEARS AND 4 MONTHS FROM ELECTION DAY!!!!
Exactly. Which is why it's ridiculous that pbrower is saying that it's "bad for Republicans" than Obama has a 43% approval rating in Indiana, which he thinks will make it competitive.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5297 on: July 13, 2010, 02:30:20 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2010, 05:38:36 PM by pbrower2a »

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.

Once again... we are TWO YEARS AND 4 MONTHS FROM ELECTION DAY!!!!
Exactly. Which is why it's ridiculous that pbrower is saying that it's "bad for Republicans" than Obama has a 43% approval rating in Indiana, which he thinks will make it competitive.

1. The Republicans haven't won when Indiana has been even marginally competitive for Democrats since the nineteenth Century. They cannot win without Indiana, and they can't when Indiana is even close. The last time before 2008 (aside from the 1964 Goldwater disaster) when Indiana was within 5% of going D was 1948. That year, Truman won.

Indiana was one of the worst states for JFK (55-45), who won a close election.  Clinton never came close to winning the state in two decisive wins. Gore lost it 56-41 in the closest Presidential election in American history. Kerry lost it 60-40 in another close election.

If the Democrats get even so close as 46% in Indiana in 2012 on Election Day, then the Democrats hold onto the Presidency. 49%? He likely wins Missouri instead of Indiana -- a wash, and Obama has about 360 electoral votes.

2. It is more than 27 months before Election Day, 2012. When the Obama machine is out of mothballs and the GOP has its candidate well known to the public, then we will see how things go. Obama's campaign machine made few mistakes -- at least those that it couldn't recover from --  either in the primaries or in the general election.  

3. A 43% approval rating for an incumbent is probably not enough to win in a statewide election. 44% is the break-even point. The Presidential election is 50 statewide elections, five Congressional districts, and DC.  My model suggests that if things are as they are with an Obama level of approval of 43%, he will win 49% of the total vote of the two main contenders. That would not be enough to win Indiana... but neighboring Ohio would surely go D if Indiana is close.  The Republicans cannot win without Ohio; the last Democratic nominee to win without Ohio was JFK.

Yes, Ohio is the big prize... the sirloin steak. Indiana is at most the after-dinner drink. The GOP must win Ohio to have a real chance. But Indiana says things about Ohio.  

4. Yes, the Obama win of Indiana in 2008 looks like a fluke. The Obama campaign contested the state in the primary election and found the state unusually easy to campaign in for a Democrat. Unlike Kennedy, Humphrey, Gore, or Kerry he was campaigning from the neighboring state, which means that he didn't have to fly campaign equipment into the state.

At times he seemed to need the state.  It is open to Michigan and Ohio television markets; to reach certain parts of Michigan and Ohio the Obama campaign had to buy advertising time in places like South Bend and Fort Wayne. But that helped him in places like South Bend, Elkhart, Michigan City, Fort Wayne, and Muncie. Ads from places like Dayton and Cincinnati filtered into parts of Indiana, too. Obama sealed the state by advertising in Indianapolis.

That won't be repeated in 2012. He faces no meaningful opposition in the Democratic primaries, so he won't get the early start that he needed to win Indiana. There are bigger and easier prizes under some circumstances if things are going well (Georgia is an Obama win if the military situation in southwest Asia improves) -- not to mention Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. 

5. Indiana may be the last state in the northeastern quadrant of the United States (except West Virginia, which has gone a different direction) to trend Democratic. [Virginia also went for Obama in 2008 for the first time since 1964, but more decisively than Indiana]. The Republican machine has been strong for years, but that may be at an end.

LAST TIME VOTING REPUBLICAN,

States in or partially in the northeastern quadrant of the United States

DC  -- never
MN -- 1972
MA, MN, NY,  RI, , WI -- 1984
CT, DE, IL, ME, MD,  MI, NJ, PA, VT -- 1988
NH -- 2000
IA, IN, OH, NE-02   -- 2004

(Others: KS, MO, NE, ND, SD, WV)

The point: States settled from New England, the Dutch colony of New Netherland, and southeastern Pennsylvania have been trending D even though they used to be firmly R (this also applies to the West Coast).  The cultural patterns that used to cause suburbanites in those states to vote for pro-business liberal Republicans were eroded when the Republican Party went for the traditionalist and often racist voters of the South. Indiana may be less "northern" than any of the other states in the group that went for Obama -- even Virginia -- but it is no longer a state that Republicans can presume is reliably "theirs".

Indiana may be more rural and less cosmopolitan than other states that went for Obama, but it is also more urban and cosmopolitan than most of the South (FL and VA excluded).

I suggest that you examine David Hackett Fisher's Albion's Seed for an explanation of the partisan trends in American politics (he does not mention 2008 unless he has a new edition available).     
 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5298 on: July 14, 2010, 07:12:35 AM »

CA (Rasmussen): 57-42

Link

PA (Quinnipiac): 46-49

Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 42 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012. In fact, 41 percent of voters say they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate in 2012, while 40 percent say they would vote for Obama. Independent voters say they would go for a Republican 37 - 33 percent.

"When a politician's approval rating is down 13 points among independent voters, that is generally a sign of political vulnerability," said Brown. "The 6-point margin held by those who say President Obama doesn't deserve a second term over those who think he does also should make the White House nervous, especially since Pennsylvania has not voted Republican for president since 1988. Here too, his weakness is among independents, who say 51 - 35 percent he does not deserve a second term."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1475
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J. J.
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« Reply #5299 on: July 14, 2010, 10:09:54 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 53% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Still within range.
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