The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5250 on: July 07, 2010, 06:23:59 PM »

You need to add 10% because it is Republican HACK Rasmussen.

What I say with my model is that if the approval rating for President Obama is 41% in the spring of 2012, he would most likely end up with about a 47-53 loss in the state in November.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5251 on: July 07, 2010, 06:39:00 PM »

You need to add 10% because it is Republican HACK Rasmussen.

What I say with my model is that if the approval rating for President Obama is 41% in the spring of 2012, he would most likely end up with about a 47-53 loss in the state in November.

Nobody but you takes your 'model' seriously, however.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5252 on: July 08, 2010, 07:56:57 AM »

Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted July 6, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s

been doing?

           

29% Strongly approve

            14% Somewhat approve

            12% Somewhat disapprove

            45% Strongly disapprove

              0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

46 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  99
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 64
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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J. J.
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« Reply #5253 on: July 08, 2010, 08:55:19 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

(Wow, that was easy to type.)



[/quote]
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5254 on: July 08, 2010, 12:57:30 PM »

IL (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

WV (Rasmussen)Sad

33% Approve
65% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in West Virginia was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted byPulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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« Reply #5255 on: July 08, 2010, 01:07:57 PM »

IL (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Don't worry, Obama.  You'll always have Hawai'i.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5256 on: July 08, 2010, 02:47:26 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2010, 04:38:38 PM by pbrower2a »

IL (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

WV (Rasmussen)Sad

33% Approve
65% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in West Virginia was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted byPulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

Wow! West Virginia used to be one of the most reliable Democratic states. As late as 1988 it was one of the few states to vote for Mike Dukakis ,



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  99
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 69
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




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Yelnoc
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« Reply #5257 on: July 08, 2010, 04:15:40 PM »

Am I correct to believe that all of the "white" states are "swing" states?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5258 on: July 08, 2010, 05:15:38 PM »

Am I correct to believe that all of the "white" states are "swing" states?

Pink, white, and light blue suggest swing states. Because polls bounce around, we have already seen states change categories.

The model (and in this I owe Nate Silver at 538) suggests that an incumbent who has an early approval rating of 44% in a statewide race  has roughly a 50% chance of winning the election. 
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Dgov
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« Reply #5259 on: July 08, 2010, 06:02:46 PM »


Wow! West Virginia used to be one of the most reliable Democratic states. As late as 1988 it was one of the few states to vote for Mike Dukakis

It's basically following the general trend of the states over the last 20 years to fall into more ideological baskets.  It's like how New Jersey used to be a relatively strong moderate Republican state--the strength of the state party to deliver in presidential elections has been eroded over the last few years
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5260 on: July 08, 2010, 11:25:55 PM »

FL, IL, WV, NC


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Derek
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« Reply #5261 on: July 09, 2010, 12:41:21 AM »

Am I correct to believe that all of the "white" states are "swing" states?

Pink, white, and light blue suggest swing states. Because polls bounce around, we have already seen states change categories.

The model (and in this I owe Nate Silver at 538) suggests that an incumbent who has an early approval rating of 44% in a statewide race  has roughly a 50% chance of winning the election. 


Name one candidate who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5262 on: July 09, 2010, 08:20:00 AM »

The model (and in this I owe Nate Silver at 538) suggests that an incumbent who has an early approval rating of 44% in a statewide race  has roughly a 50% chance of winning the election.

I hate having to correct him every time he says this (it's tedious), but Nate Silver says nothing of the sort.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5263 on: July 09, 2010, 08:38:27 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 53% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5264 on: July 09, 2010, 12:57:14 PM »

WV (Rasmussen)Sad

35% Approve
64% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in West Virginia was conducted on July 8, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

SD (Rasmussen)Sad

40% Approve
59% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on July 6, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5265 on: July 09, 2010, 08:18:49 PM »

SD update -- marginal change:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  96
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 66
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......





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J. J.
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« Reply #5266 on: July 10, 2010, 12:23:32 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


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« Reply #5267 on: July 10, 2010, 12:39:49 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.




Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?
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« Reply #5268 on: July 10, 2010, 11:16:56 PM »

Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?

Far too small a move, and far too soon to say.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5269 on: July 10, 2010, 11:45:46 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.




Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?

I'm not sure that there was much of a trend.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5270 on: July 11, 2010, 09:02:18 AM »

Rasmussen (July 11)Sad

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)
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« Reply #5271 on: July 11, 2010, 09:07:05 AM »

Rasmussen (July 11)Sad

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 49/50 with Rasmussen?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5272 on: July 11, 2010, 09:13:50 AM »

Rasmussen (July 11)Sad

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 49/50 with Rasmussen?

About a week ago. Letīs first watch if Gallup also goes up today, if not, Rasmussenīs probably dropping to 45% again tomorrow - as usual.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5273 on: July 11, 2010, 01:12:04 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.




Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?

Really, we've only seen movement yesterday and today, after a week of huge stability.  If there is actual movement, as opposed to a good sample moving through the system, we should wait for Tuesday.  Friday's "Strongly" numbers showed no movement.

If Tuesday's Approve numbers are 45-46, there is no movement, and its just a good sample that moved through the system.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5274 on: July 11, 2010, 03:26:27 PM »

Rasmussen (July 11)Sad

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 49/50 with Rasmussen?

About a week ago. Letīs first watch if Gallup also goes up today, if not, Rasmussenīs probably dropping to 45% again tomorrow - as usual.

If it sticks it could be a real rebound which would appear in statewide approval ratings. If it is transitory... almost everything in politics is transitory. So if you see an Obama approval rating going from 40% to 45% and another going from 47% to 52% -- and perhaps another going from 33% to 37%, draw your own conclusion.
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