The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1116143 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #5175 on: June 27, 2010, 08:52:23 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 54% , u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

All numbers are within the new normal.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5176 on: June 27, 2010, 09:10:24 AM »


Someone else  (typically Rasmussen)  usually refutes SUSA polls quickly except in Kansas.  SUSA polls the same few states.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5177 on: June 27, 2010, 01:12:18 PM »

WY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I'm nt gonna use the SUSA numbers becuase they seem odd for the west coast, but here is what the map would look like with them

CA, OR, WA, KS


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #5178 on: June 27, 2010, 02:59:43 PM »

Landslide!  (even though those polls are probably wrong)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5179 on: June 28, 2010, 08:19:12 AM »

These numbers cant possibly be right.  No way Obama is as popular as he is nationwide in California.

SUSA didn't do a national poll AFAIK. Perhaps according to them Obama is the upper 30's nationwide.

SurveyUSA shows lower approval numbers in general, and not just for the President. Recall SUSA's poll of Chris Christie that showed him with gravely poor approvals just weeks before -- and after -- other pollsters showed him net positive.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5180 on: June 28, 2010, 08:53:20 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2010, 07:59:12 AM by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +4.

Disapprove 50% , -4.


"Strongly Approve" is at 2%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -3.

Either a huge movement, or a bad sample.



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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5181 on: June 28, 2010, 10:33:51 AM »

Rasmussen: SC
42/57




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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5182 on: June 28, 2010, 10:35:05 AM »

SC


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5183 on: June 28, 2010, 10:35:38 AM »


That's actually good for him there, all things considered.
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Vepres
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« Reply #5184 on: June 28, 2010, 10:40:09 AM »


But it's Rasmussen so obviously he's really +5 there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5185 on: June 28, 2010, 10:41:30 AM »

SC update




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 139
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  63
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5186 on: June 28, 2010, 11:21:22 AM »


But it's Rasmussen so obviously he's really +5 there.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Wow, that was funny.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5187 on: June 28, 2010, 12:49:55 PM »

MA (University of NH)Sad

Likely Voters: 51-47
Adults: 53-45

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/bg_2010-june27.pdf
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5188 on: June 28, 2010, 01:11:17 PM »


lolwut
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Sbane
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« Reply #5189 on: June 28, 2010, 03:05:09 PM »


But it's Rasmussen so obviously he's really +5 there.

Rasmussen's approval numbers are useful, disapproval not so much.
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xavier110
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« Reply #5190 on: June 28, 2010, 04:35:18 PM »

Nationally:

Gallup - 46/46
Rasmussen - 49/50 (SA 28 / SD 37)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5191 on: June 29, 2010, 07:22:45 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2010, 05:45:18 PM by pbrower2a »

Louisiana State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       29% Strongly approve
       11% Somewhat approve
         8% Somewhat disapprove
       50% Strongly disapprove
         2% Not sure

New York State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     34% Strongly approve
     27% Somewhat approve
     10% Somewhat disapprove
     29% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure

Hawaii Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       52% Strongly approve
       20% Somewhat approve
         4% Somewhat disapprove
       22% Strongly disapprove
         2% Not sure


Spurious poll in Massachusetts recognized as such.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 139
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  63
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  106
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 57
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5192 on: June 29, 2010, 07:44:09 AM »

Spurious poll in Massachusetts recognized as such.

Someone got a word-a-day calendar for Christmas!
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J. J.
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« Reply #5193 on: June 29, 2010, 08:43:01 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% -1.

Disapprove 51% , +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +3.


It looks like a bad pro-Obama sample is moving through the system.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5194 on: June 29, 2010, 09:02:42 AM »

Spurious poll in Massachusetts recognized as such.

Someone got a word-a-day calendar for Christmas!

Sorry, but I need no such gimmick.
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xavier110
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« Reply #5195 on: June 29, 2010, 06:38:53 PM »

Rasmussen: Hawaii
72/26
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5196 on: June 30, 2010, 12:07:51 AM »

Wisconsin (PPP)Sad

45% Approve
50% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 638 Wisconsin voters from June 26-27. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduceadditional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_629.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5197 on: June 30, 2010, 12:15:22 AM »

MA, NY, HI, WI, & LA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5198 on: June 30, 2010, 08:23:26 AM »

OH (Quinnipiac)Sad

45% Approve
49% Disapprove

From June 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,107 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1471

MO (Rasmussen)Sad

47% Approve
53% Disapprove

This survey of 500 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted on June 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5199 on: June 30, 2010, 08:39:16 AM »


It seems that his numbers there will be outrageously high, no matter what.
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