The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5150 on: June 23, 2010, 08:42:33 AM »

MA (Rasmussen)Sad

56% Approve
43% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on June 21, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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J. J.
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« Reply #5151 on: June 23, 2010, 08:50:09 AM »

Rasmussen (June 23)Sad

48% Approve (+2)
51% Disapprove (-2)

28% Strongly Approve (-1)
41% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Three of the numbers are still within the MOE range from last week.  No great collapse, but longer term possibly a slight decline.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5152 on: June 23, 2010, 11:24:11 AM »


Even if it is an internal poll (thus the letter S) it seems about right in view of other states. This is the first Virginia poll in a long time and I will accept it provisionally due to the absence of alternatives. It seems reasonable.


Massachusetts update, too:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 163
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5153 on: June 23, 2010, 11:30:13 AM »

Rasmussen (June 23)Sad

48% Approve (+2)
51% Disapprove (-2)

28% Strongly Approve (-1)
41% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Three of the numbers are still within the MOE range from last week.  No great collapse, but longer term possibly a slight decline.

Only a fool predicts the polls for the next week. More significantly, this poll suggests that if things were as they are now when President Obama starts campaigning in earnest, then he wins about as he did in 2008 -- barring some catastrophic failure that no poll can predict.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5154 on: June 23, 2010, 05:21:33 PM »

Vermont at last!

(I would rather have seen Montana or West Virginia)

Vermont Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 17, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

    40% Strongly approve

    22% Somewhat approve

    11% Somewhat disapprove

    26% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  172
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 163
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......








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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5155 on: June 23, 2010, 07:34:15 PM »

OR, ND, NY, PA, MA, VA, VT, & WI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #5156 on: June 24, 2010, 08:40:57 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u.

Disapprove 51% , u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

No great uptick.  No great slump. 

Arguably, there has been erosion for Obama from April/May, but not huge.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5157 on: June 24, 2010, 01:08:49 PM »

North Carolina (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
57% Disapprove

This state survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on June 23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

Nevada (Rasmussen)Sad

48% Approve
52% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on June 22, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5158 on: June 24, 2010, 01:14:44 PM »

New Mexico (Magellan Strategies)Sad

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 542N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of New Mexico. The interviews were conducted June 21st, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 4.21% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 election cycles.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Magellan-New-Mexico-Governor-Survey-Release-062310.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5159 on: June 24, 2010, 01:32:23 PM »

NC, NM, & NV


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5160 on: June 24, 2010, 01:38:49 PM »

Even though Magellan is a Republican pollster, they are really good.

They predicted both CA GOP primaries almost entirely correctly as well as the KY Primary.
 
But we have to see if they are also that good when it comes to General Elections.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5161 on: June 25, 2010, 08:44:24 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% -3.

Disapprove 53% , +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

No great uptick.  No great slump.  Arguable a modest decline from April/May.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5162 on: June 25, 2010, 10:38:47 AM »

Washington State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       29% Strongly approve
       22% Somewhat approve
         9% Somewhat disapprove
       39% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 148
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  54
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

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Derek
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« Reply #5163 on: June 25, 2010, 10:41:36 AM »

Those democrats are doing so badly. Obama is down to 45% nationally and even as low as 51% in Washington. Patty Murray is in trouble and now tied with Dino Rossi at 47%. Haven't those 2 run against each other before?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5164 on: June 25, 2010, 12:43:35 PM »

Texas (PPP)Sad

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters from June 19th- 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Releaae_TX_625.pdf

Utah (Rasmussen)Sad

33% Approve
63% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Utah was conducted on June 23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5165 on: June 25, 2010, 02:04:35 PM »

WA, UT, & TX


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5166 on: June 25, 2010, 02:21:27 PM »


Washington State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       29% Strongly approve
       22% Somewhat approve
         9% Somewhat disapprove
       39% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

Utah update, Texas no meaningful change:




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 148
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  54
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


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J. J.
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« Reply #5167 on: June 26, 2010, 10:03:50 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 54% , +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5168 on: June 26, 2010, 05:44:22 PM »

Wyoming:
1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve
11% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
57% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/wyoming/election_2010_wyoming_governor
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5169 on: June 26, 2010, 06:02:24 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2010, 09:04:45 AM by pbrower2a »

Least-likely votes for Obama in 2012:

NE-03
WY
UT
ID

70% disapproval in Wyoming.  Such invites its own category.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 148
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  54
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5170 on: June 27, 2010, 03:10:05 AM »

SUSA sez Obama`s under water evrywhere, even in fkin California !. Takea look:

California: 46-49
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 34-61
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 42-53
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washinbgton: 45-53
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd
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Sbane
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« Reply #5171 on: June 27, 2010, 03:26:18 AM »

Wow. Things aren't looking good for Obama.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5172 on: June 27, 2010, 03:39:52 AM »


These numbers cant possibly be right.  No way Obama is as popular as he is nationwide in California.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5173 on: June 27, 2010, 03:46:32 AM »


SUSA didn't do a national poll AFAIK. Perhaps according to them Obama is the upper 30's nationwide.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5174 on: June 27, 2010, 07:51:27 AM »


SUSA didn't do a national poll AFAIK. Perhaps according to them Obama is the upper 30's nationwide.

Oh wow, I don't think them numbers are right.
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