The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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J. J.
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« Reply #5075 on: June 16, 2010, 10:00:06 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -3.

Disapprove 57% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

This substantial drop might be a just a bad sample.  It represent Obama's lowest Approve and highest Disapprove number as well the the greatest negative gap between Approve and Strongly Disapprove.  Both his "Strongly" numbers are maintaining the same range.

If this is a bad sample, we should see it drop out by no later than Saturday.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5076 on: June 16, 2010, 10:00:54 AM »

The President states the obvious, and he is far more credible than BP America.


Wednesday, June 16, 2010
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Comment: The solutions for stopping the gusher are technological. The solutions for preventing the next underwater disaster are morality attached to extant technology.
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« Reply #5077 on: June 16, 2010, 11:38:09 AM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

What poll?  State or national?

National. Lets go with Gallup.

I'd be far more interested in knowing why you think this is going to happen.

Whenever a President gives a national speech his approvals go up, generally its around 5 points. Its a soft bump, but lets wait and see if it happens.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5078 on: June 16, 2010, 12:22:12 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% , -3.

Disapprove 57% , +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Could be a bad sample.
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Derek
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« Reply #5079 on: June 16, 2010, 12:41:33 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -3.

Disapprove 57% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

This substantial drop might be a just a bad sample.  It represent Obama's lowest Approve and highest Disapprove number as well the the greatest negative gap between Approve and Strongly Disapprove.  Both his "Strongly" numbers are maintaining the same range.

If this is a bad sample, we should see it drop out by no later than Saturday.

That speech last night may have been the nail in the coffin. People could see right through him.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5080 on: June 16, 2010, 01:39:14 PM »

I don't know what to make of this poll.  Do Republicans believe that Democrats in Congress  well represent Democratic voters (if not Republican conservatives) and Democrats believe that Republicans in Congress represent  republican voters (if also not Democrats) badly?



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Whatever, Republicans in Congress seem to have more problems with credibility.
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sirnick
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« Reply #5081 on: June 16, 2010, 01:47:09 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

What poll?  State or national?

National. Lets go with Gallup.

I'd be far more interested in knowing why you think this is going to happen.

Whenever a President gives a national speech his approvals go up, generally its around 5 points. Its a soft bump, but lets wait and see if it happens.

Did you watch the speech?  I didn't, but apparently it was poorly received by pretty much everybody.  You don't get a boost in your approval from a speech people didn't like!

I did see it. It was alright. I'll keep my bet there though because the people on the left who felt alienated as of late might come right back home now.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5082 on: June 16, 2010, 02:09:18 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

What poll?  State or national?

National. Lets go with Gallup.

I'd be far more interested in knowing why you think this is going to happen.

Whenever a President gives a national speech his approvals go up, generally its around 5 points. Its a soft bump, but lets wait and see if it happens.

Did you watch the speech?  I didn't, but apparently it was poorly received by pretty much everybody.  You don't get a boost in your approval from a speech people didn't like!

I did see it. It was alright. I'll keep my bet there though because the people on the left who felt alienated as of late might come right back home now.

The Left? No. the Left would like to see some oil company executives dangling before a lynch mob. Such is not the style of President Obama, and it would do more harm than good aside from being unconstitutional. Right now I am more concerned with the welfare of fishermen, shrimpers, and others who have a clear interest in the welfare of the Gulf. If he wins such people back (they seem to have voted heavily for John McCain in 2008, but for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996) he has negated one of his political liabilities.

Not great -- but right. He may have held something back, but to his credit, President Obama did nothing inflammatory even if such would have been immediately to his political advantage. He is no fiery populist and never will be. But he did show empathy with people whom this disaster hurt. He did badly in all Gulf Coast states (except Florida) in winning votes in 2008, and he may have picked up some credibility. 

He made some promises that he can and must keep. He has also stood up to a giant corporation that treated a disaster mostly as a problem of PR instead of the ecological tragedy that it is. 

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J. J.
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« Reply #5083 on: June 16, 2010, 05:14:41 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -3.

Disapprove 57% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

This substantial drop might be a just a bad sample.  It represent Obama's lowest Approve and highest Disapprove number as well the the greatest negative gap between Approve and Strongly Disapprove.  Both his "Strongly" numbers are maintaining the same range.

If this is a bad sample, we should see it drop out by no later than Saturday.

That speech last night may have been the nail in the coffin. People could see right through him.

The speech wouldn't register until tomorrow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5084 on: June 16, 2010, 05:17:23 PM »



I did see it. It was alright. I'll keep my bet there though because the people on the left who felt alienated as of late might come right back home now.

I'd call it disjointed, and I though Mathews was going to hemorrhage.  Fox was nicer.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5085 on: June 17, 2010, 08:20:26 AM »
« Edited: June 17, 2010, 04:02:26 PM by pbrower2a »

Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
14% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
49% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

NJ update





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

42 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  34
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  61
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5086 on: June 17, 2010, 08:40:00 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43% +1.

Disapprove 56% , -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, +2.

It may be a bad sample, but Obama now has a record high "Strongly Disapprove" number.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5087 on: June 17, 2010, 01:08:21 PM »

New Jersey²:

Rasmussen: 51% Approve, 49% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted on June 14, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

Quinnipiac: 50% Approve, 46% Disapprove

From June 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,461 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1465
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5088 on: June 17, 2010, 01:13:10 PM »

SD, AR, & NJ


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5089 on: June 17, 2010, 01:28:04 PM »

SD, AR, & NJ


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Iowa is green => Rasmussen.
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CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5090 on: June 17, 2010, 01:40:02 PM »

Your right, didint see that.
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CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5091 on: June 17, 2010, 01:43:04 PM »

IA, SD, AR, & NJ


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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sirnick
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« Reply #5092 on: June 17, 2010, 04:15:09 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

What poll?  State or national?

National. Lets go with Gallup.

I'd be far more interested in knowing why you think this is going to happen.

Whenever a President gives a national speech his approvals go up, generally its around 5 points. Its a soft bump, but lets wait and see if it happens.

Did you watch the speech?  I didn't, but apparently it was poorly received by pretty much everybody.  You don't get a boost in your approval from a speech people didn't like!

I did see it. It was alright. I'll keep my bet there though because the people on the left who felt alienated as of late might come right back home now.

I loose. It dropped to 46%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5093 on: June 17, 2010, 05:45:38 PM »

Tennessee State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Something of a surprise in Tennessee:

Conducted June 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

25% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
47% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  45
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  61
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5094 on: June 17, 2010, 06:50:36 PM »

Uh...shouldn't Tennessee be orange?  And do you really believe the Republicans will win in by less that 5% based on a poll with -15% approval and almost 50% strongly disapproving?  REALLY?
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fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5095 on: June 17, 2010, 07:28:39 PM »

Uh...shouldn't Tennessee be orange?  And do you really believe the Republicans will win in by less that 5% based on a poll with -15% approval and almost 50% strongly disapproving?  REALLY?
Strong disapproval in itself is no indicator of how the President will perform in a reelection campaign.  The President is not in campaign mode - he is doing as he should and responding to the Gulf crisis.  Once he brings his campaign out of mothballs, he will be nigh-unstoppable.  Should someone like Mitt Romney be the nominee, Tennessee might well be in play.  White voters may opt to vote for the devil that they know - even if he is black - rather than a venture capitalist with religious beliefs that clash with the Southern Baptist thugocracy.

The President has many ways in which to win and few ways to lose.  In 2012, he will either run on his record and lose, or run away from his record and win.

So many ifs, huh?  And what if Huckabee is the nominee, won't Tennessee then be wildly out of play?  The only ifs you take into account are if Obama is at his very peak and if the Republicans nominate the worst candidate for each state.

You were right about one thing, approval ratings have nothing to do with voting.  So stop comparing the two.
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CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5096 on: June 17, 2010, 07:42:02 PM »

TN


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5097 on: June 17, 2010, 08:16:14 PM »

Approval ratings this far out have little bearing on an election that is almost thirty months away.  One of the most consistent findings, however, is that the President tends to outperform his approval ratings, sometimes by as much as ten points - the addition of five is a conservative estimate.  Right now, Rasmussen - a polling firm whose credibility is seriously in question - has the President's approval at 43%.  By adding five, we get a nearly even approval of 49%.  Against a generic Republican candidate, President Obama would face a tough reelection.  But none of his potential opponents are generic.  They are, rather, disciples of the reactionary movement that wants to puts plutocrats and yes, oil tycoons back into power, who will fight tooth and nail against any financial reform.  So long as the specter of George W. Bush haunts the Republican Party, they have no hope of any electoral success for many years - perhaps decades, should demographic trends increasingly favor the Democratic Party and should President Obama produce any legislative success.  So far, I see an above average President with average approval ratings, weighed down by an economy that was crushed under the weight of George W. Bush and his minions.  It will take a long time to get back to where we used to be.  When our economy is on even footing again, President Obama's approval ratings are sure to spike.  When that happens, you can stick a fork in any Republican candidates - generic or no.

Based on what?  The last time Obama ran for reelection?  Bush was at the mid-50s at reelection, he didn't win in the mid-60s.  But you know, Republicans don't see boosts only Democrats do.  Add 5% for Democrats being polled, subtract 5% for Republicans, right?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5098 on: June 17, 2010, 08:31:03 PM »

Approval ratings this far out have little bearing on an election that is almost thirty months away.  One of the most consistent findings, however, is that the President tends to outperform his approval ratings, sometimes by as much as ten points - the addition of five is a conservative estimate.  Right now, Rasmussen - a polling firm whose credibility is seriously in question - has the President's approval at 43%.  By adding five, we get a nearly even approval of 49%.  Against a generic Republican candidate, President Obama would face a tough reelection.  But none of his potential opponents are generic.  They are, rather, disciples of the reactionary movement that wants to puts plutocrats and yes, oil tycoons back into power, who will fight tooth and nail against any financial reform.  So long as the specter of George W. Bush haunts the Republican Party, they have no hope of any electoral success for many years - perhaps decades, should demographic trends increasingly favor the Democratic Party and should President Obama produce any legislative success.  So far, I see an above average President with average approval ratings, weighed down by an economy that was crushed under the weight of George W. Bush and his minions.  It will take a long time to get back to where we used to be.  When our economy is on even footing again, President Obama's approval ratings are sure to spike.  When that happens, you can stick a fork in any Republican candidates - generic or no.

Based on what?  The last time Obama ran for reelection?  Bush was at the mid-50s at reelection, he didn't win in the mid-60s.  But you know, Republicans don't see boosts only Democrats do.  Add 5% for Democrats being polled, subtract 5% for Republicans, right?

Heh, you fell for Van der Blub. Not that his troll views are much different than pbrower's real views...Tongue
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fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5099 on: June 17, 2010, 08:40:16 PM »

Heh, you fell for Van der Blub. Not that his troll views are much different than pbrower's real views...Tongue

LOL I literally had NO idea the entire time.  I should have though, pbrower never actually responds.
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