The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5050 on: June 13, 2010, 08:35:25 AM »

NC (PPP)Sad

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 603 North Carolinian voters from June 4th- 7th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_610.pdf

Not bad.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5051 on: June 13, 2010, 12:28:11 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% +1

Disapprove 52% , -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


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J. J.
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« Reply #5052 on: June 14, 2010, 09:08:19 AM »
« Edited: June 14, 2010, 04:17:50 PM by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% -2

Disapprove 55% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.



While it looks like a big drop, all movement is within the MOE.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5053 on: June 14, 2010, 11:00:49 AM »

NC

MI Rasmussen
approve - 49 / disapprove 51
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Derek
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« Reply #5054 on: June 14, 2010, 11:11:03 AM »

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?
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Umengus
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« Reply #5055 on: June 14, 2010, 12:56:54 PM »

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?

the economy of the state is also of the responsability of the governor. And her popularity is low. Obama is not responsable for the specific problem of Michigan.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5056 on: June 14, 2010, 01:04:40 PM »

SD (Rasmussen)Sad

40% Approve
59% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on June 10, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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sentinel
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« Reply #5057 on: June 14, 2010, 01:38:23 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5058 on: June 14, 2010, 01:48:42 PM »

NC & SD

MI Rasmussen
approve - 49 / disapprove 51
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5059 on: June 14, 2010, 02:08:05 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2010, 07:19:38 AM by pbrower2a »

Update on South Dakota:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

42 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 151
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  72
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.



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Zarn
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« Reply #5060 on: June 14, 2010, 02:45:55 PM »

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?

They really, really, really like their unions. It makes no sense, since unions are hurting jobs across the country right now. Right here in NJ, they are costing teachers a lot of jobs.
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Edu
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« Reply #5061 on: June 14, 2010, 03:27:26 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -2

Disapprove 55% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.



While it looks like a big drop, all movement is within the MOE.

It's 45-55, not 42-55
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J. J.
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« Reply #5062 on: June 14, 2010, 04:17:22 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

What poll?  State or national?
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J. J.
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« Reply #5063 on: June 14, 2010, 04:18:32 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -2

Disapprove 55% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.



While it looks like a big drop, all movement is within the MOE.

It's 45-55, not 42-55

Thanks.  I fixed it.
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Derek
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« Reply #5064 on: June 14, 2010, 05:24:57 PM »

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?

the economy of the state is also of the responsability of the governor. And her popularity is low. Obama is not responsable for the specific problem of Michigan.

Yes I know but if the people weren't smart enough to not blame Bush for it then why are they smart enough not to blame Obama for it?
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5065 on: June 14, 2010, 07:16:33 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

He's gonna have to pull something big out of his ass to get 8 points by the end of the week.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5066 on: June 15, 2010, 07:25:14 AM »
« Edited: June 15, 2010, 11:45:04 AM by pbrower2a »

South Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    31% Strongly approve

    15% Somewhat approve

      9% Somewhat disapprove

    44% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure

South Carolina again  looks like the most likely swing state toward Obama in 2012.  The state is uniquely a political snake pit.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

42 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 160
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  43
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  72
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.




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J. J.
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« Reply #5067 on: June 15, 2010, 08:49:48 AM »
« Edited: June 15, 2010, 03:33:24 PM by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 54% , -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.
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Edu
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« Reply #5068 on: June 15, 2010, 09:33:13 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 55% , -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

It's 45-54. And it says that 41 strongly dissaprove, not 42.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5069 on: June 15, 2010, 01:26:00 PM »

IL (PPP)Sad

53% Approve
41% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 552 Illinois voters from June 12th- 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Illinois_615.pdf

LA (PPP)Sad

37% Approve
57% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 492 Louisiana voters from June 12th- 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_LA_615.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5070 on: June 15, 2010, 02:10:53 PM »

South Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

22% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
46% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

... IL, LA  updates, too:





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

42 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 160
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  43
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  61
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.





[/quote]
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5071 on: June 15, 2010, 02:24:41 PM »

IL, LA, SC, & SD


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #5072 on: June 15, 2010, 03:34:12 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 55% , -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

Fixed it again.

It's 45-54. And it says that 41 strongly dissaprove, not 42.
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sentinel
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« Reply #5073 on: June 15, 2010, 04:33:44 PM »

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

What poll?  State or national?

National. Lets go with Gallup.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5074 on: June 15, 2010, 05:45:13 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2010, 09:53:09 AM by pbrower2a »


South Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

22% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
46% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Colorado Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 14, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    32% Strongly approve
    16% Somewhat approve
     11% Somewhat disapprove
    42% Strongly disapprove
       0% Not sure

Iowa Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 14, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       28% Strongly approve

       22% Somewhat approve

       12% Somewhat disapprove

       36% Strongly disapprove

         1% Not sure

... IL, LA  updates, too:





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

42 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  34
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  61
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.





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