The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:12:28 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 197 198 199 200 201 [202] 203 204 205 206 207 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1207620 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5025 on: June 09, 2010, 04:00:32 PM »


 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.



Like Obama?

It applies to incumbents running for statewide offices or statewide races (a Presidential election is effectively fifty statewide races, one district-wide race (DC), and five Congressional races (ME-01, ME-02, NE-01, NE-02, and NE-03).

If President Obama should become a failure (still possible), then the usual 6% edge for an incumbent just won't be enough for him to overcome. Think of Jimmy Carter.   
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5026 on: June 09, 2010, 04:15:54 PM »

FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5027 on: June 09, 2010, 06:01:09 PM »


Only because Obama's numbers have dropped, right?
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5028 on: June 10, 2010, 08:47:18 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2010, 04:10:50 PM by pbrower2a »

California State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 9, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       43% Strongly approve
       16% Somewhat approve
         6% Somewhat disapprove
       33% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

Florida now shows a Q-R average

Nevada General Election

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

June 9, 2010

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
  8% Somewhat disapprove
43% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

Maryland Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 8, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

 

   39% Strongly approve

   17% Somewhat approve

     8% Somewhat disapprove

   35% Strongly disapprove

     1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 147
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  55
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.

Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5029 on: June 10, 2010, 09:54:24 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


Logged
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5030 on: June 10, 2010, 11:23:10 AM »

When was the last time North Carolina was polled?
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5031 on: June 10, 2010, 12:39:02 PM »

When was the last time North Carolina was polled?
within the last week I think, on the maps the numbers (on mine) and the letters (on pbrower2a's) represent the month the last poll was in.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5032 on: June 10, 2010, 01:11:12 PM »

CT (Quinnipiac)Sad

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

From June 2 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,350 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 500 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points and 343 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1463
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5033 on: June 10, 2010, 01:49:29 PM »

Gallup: 44% Approve, 48% Disapprove (-3, +3)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Fox News: 46% Approve, 45% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/061010_OilSpill.pdf

PPP: 48% Approve, 47% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_609.pdf

ABC News/Washington Post: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

http://abcnews.go.com/images/GMA/Frustration_2010-style.pdf
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5034 on: June 10, 2010, 02:43:06 PM »

CA, & CT


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Donald Trump’s Toupée
GOP_Represent
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,536


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5035 on: June 11, 2010, 12:57:27 AM »
« Edited: June 11, 2010, 01:05:42 AM by GOP_Represent »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +3

Disapprove 50% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


A good Obama sample, but that Strongly Approve number is still showing a drop.

49% approval for an incumbent before the electoral campaign begins in earnest almost always implies a victory. There will be those who won't be happy with either the incumbent or the challenger, and will hibernate in the election. George W. Bush had lower approvals throughout most of 2004 and still won despite having a high rate of "strong disapproval".

That of course is also before the campaign apparatus comes out of mothballs, and we all know how good the Obama campaign was in 2008. That is before we know who the GOP nominee is and what weaknesses he has ... and how the Obama campaign will be able to exploit them.

John McCain looked strong going into the Republican convention even with the economy on the brink of a meltdown. His war record was unassailable. He couldn't be tied to the blatant corruption and incompetence of an unpopular administration.    

 

I hate people when they don't check their facts. Bush was as high as 60% in early 2004. He dipped to a low of ~47%. But also was able to get to 53% before the election. This is all according to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx    ). Not once was he below 44%, which is where Obama is today.

Check your facts, or you'll lose credibility just as fast as the current POTUS.

You also don't understand politics. Campaigns don't really matter (unless it's close ie Gore vs. Bush, or if one candidates campaigns and the other one doesn't) Presidential elections are judged on two things:

1. Economy (Which was tanking)
2. Incumbent's popularity (Bush's approval rating was so low)

I don't care who was running in 2008, no Republican would have won. It's that simple.

Bush won the election for Obama, just as Nixon won it for Carter. 2008 wasn't a realigning election just as 1976 wasn't. It was a vote against the Republican party. 2012 will show that.
Logged
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5036 on: June 11, 2010, 08:08:32 AM »

When was the last time North Carolina was polled?
within the last week I think, on the maps the numbers (on mine) and the letters (on pbrower2a's) represent the month the last poll was in.
Oh, thanks.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5037 on: June 11, 2010, 09:09:09 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 54% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5038 on: June 11, 2010, 02:10:29 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2010, 08:16:31 PM by pbrower2a »

Maine, finally:

Maine State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       28% Strongly approve

       20% Somewhat approve

       13% Somewhat disapprove

       38% Strongly disapprove

         0% Not sure

Maine is not distinguished in approval between Congressional districts, but the state is fairly homogeneous in its voting (much unlike Nebraska) between districts. Closer than I would have expected, though.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

42 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 151
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  55
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.


Logged
Derek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5039 on: June 11, 2010, 04:28:24 PM »

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.
Logged
Citizen (The) Doctor
ArchangelZero
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,391
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5040 on: June 11, 2010, 05:02:23 PM »

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

/facepalm
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5041 on: June 11, 2010, 05:23:01 PM »

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

/facepalm

... why doesn't Derek ascribe the low approval to a bad economy, to not actively campaigning, or even  to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico?

Of course one can criticize President Obama, but one needs to "get" him for something true.  I don't hear any "street" talk.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5042 on: June 11, 2010, 05:25:17 PM »

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

/facepalm

... why doesn't Derek ascribe the low approval to a bad economy, to not actively campaigning, or even  to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico?

Of course one can criticize President Obama, but one needs to "get" him for something true.  I don't hear any "street" talk.
None of the Republicans are "actively campaign" either. Obama's at more of an advantage than any Republican because he is in the power to make chances that the country might like.
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5043 on: June 11, 2010, 06:48:28 PM »

Maine!


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5044 on: June 11, 2010, 08:30:45 PM »

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

/facepalm

... why doesn't Derek ascribe the low approval to a bad economy, to not actively campaigning, or even  to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico?

Of course one can criticize President Obama, but one needs to "get" him for something true.  I don't hear any "street" talk.
None of the Republicans are "actively campaign" either. Obama's at more of an advantage than any Republican because he is in the power to make chances that the country might like.

True. Active campaigning by a challenger at this stage would be crass and risky. It offers more downside than upside potential. One can carp about the President all that one wants, but if things turn out all right, the carping is easy to turn against the would-be challenger. Campaigning or not, Sarah Palin has made that mistake, and because of that she will never be President. In the meantime the President gets to establish a record of successes or failures, and even gets to show whether he can recover from errors and transitory unpopularity.  (Of course if the unpopularity sticks it is by definition not transitory and a likely sign of Presidential failure).

In 2012 the President might not be running his campaign apparatus, and he will have to let it complement his successes (almost certainly successful!) or divert attention (at which it wouldn't likely be so successful) from his failures.   
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5045 on: June 11, 2010, 09:05:45 PM »

Maine!


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Great, now, if only NJ, WA, OR, NM, and MN would follow suit.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5046 on: June 11, 2010, 10:29:23 PM »

NC (PPP)Sad

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 603 North Carolinian voters from June 4th- 7th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_610.pdf
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5047 on: June 12, 2010, 11:51:10 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 54% , u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5048 on: June 12, 2010, 01:59:44 PM »

"The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify."

lol
Logged
Derek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5049 on: June 12, 2010, 08:42:27 PM »

Did you guys see him at 48% in Maine?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 197 198 199 200 201 [202] 203 204 205 206 207 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.155 seconds with 10 queries.