The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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The Trump Virus
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« Reply #4225 on: March 22, 2010, 09:43:04 AM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.
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Iosif
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« Reply #4226 on: March 22, 2010, 09:49:54 AM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

Why bother with congress at all then? You might as well disband it and replace it with national referendums every time an issue needs addressing.

America is not governed based on what the polls are saying at any one time. You send a person to congress to represent you and if you don't like how he's representing you you vote them out 2 years later.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4227 on: March 22, 2010, 09:56:27 AM »

People claiming that President Obama is seeing or going to see a boost in his approval rating due to the passage of health care reform are misguided.  If anything he's going to see a drop.  I would say he'll hover around the mid to low 40s (about where he is right now) for the rest of the next month or two after which he'll see a slow decline.  He'll be in the 30s by the end of the year when Republicans will sweep by houses of Congress, again because of health care.

Sure, people like a winner, and like to support the winner.  But it depends heavily on what said winner has won, and what the President and his Congress have just won is something that the American people overwhelmingly object to, as evidenced in every single poll taken on this topic.  *Note that I said "his" Congress.  The Congress no longer represents its people; if they did, this bill never would've gotten as far as it did and the entire issue would've been dead months ago.

It is too early to tell whether, let alone what sort of bump President Obama will find in daily tracking polls. I could make the case that we would be wise to start over a bit before April 1.

I believe that the toxic environment is no more. The health care industry is not going to fund more Orwellian scare ads; the debate is over.  People know that if their Congressional Representative is a Republican, he voted against the bill and that may be all that they need to know in November. Democrats will use that to hit any incumbent Republican.

I know enough to hedge my statements. Watch the daily tracking polls for the next few days to see how the President is doing. This was the most difficult legislation for him to get passed. It looked like a quixotic effort, but it has succeeded. If you see daily nationwide tracking polls move upward for President Obama, then you will see statewide polls follow.

Look also at whom the health care reform is most likely to help. Health insurance has become a huge economic burden on the working poor, people who usually voted for Democrats until about 2000 when the GOP was able to split them by pandering to the culture of white poor people. That may be over.    
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4228 on: March 22, 2010, 12:08:37 PM »

I believe that the toxic environment is no more. The health care industry is not going to fund more Orwellian scare ads; the debate is over.  People know that if their Congressional Representative is a Republican, he voted against the bill and that may be all that they need to know in November. Democrats will use that to hit any incumbent Republican.


I believe that the toxic environment is no more. The industry is not going to fund more Orwellian scare ads; the debate is over.  People know that if their Congressional Representative is a Republican, he voted against the Clinton budget and that may be all that they need to know in November. Democrats will use that to hit any incumbent Republican.

I love playing around with the "date=" number.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4229 on: March 22, 2010, 01:12:19 PM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

So elected officials should make all of their decisions based on what the polls say? Ridiculous, especially when you get completely different levels of support for this bill and so many other things based on how the questions are worded. Somehow I doubt you would have felt this way even if Clinton was trying to ram through a bill that did a lot more than this one does.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4230 on: March 22, 2010, 01:52:39 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% +2

Disapprove 53% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

Over the last two days, Obama's "Strongly Approve" numbers jumped up six point.  The rest has moved slightly, but generally within 3 points.



It`s actually 47-53 (+2, -1) for today (better said for the last 3 evenings).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4231 on: March 22, 2010, 02:17:54 PM »

Iowa (Rasmussen)Sad

50% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_election_iowa_senate_march_17_2010

Vermont (Rasmussen)Sad

60% Approve
39% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Vermont was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/vermont/toplines/toplines_2010_vermont_senate_march_18_2010
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4232 on: March 22, 2010, 03:20:27 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2010, 07:16:06 PM by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Vermont. Any jump in Iowa is statistical noise.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

.... all preceding the vote on health-care reform.

I plan to add an asterisk to the "C"  for polls that end between March 22, 2010 and March 31, 2010 to reflect a changed political climate. There will be no averaging between polls ending before and after March 22, 2010.  





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CatoMinor
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« Reply #4233 on: March 22, 2010, 05:52:09 PM »

I can understand the Midwest flipping back and forth as it is, but what is up with the Pacific North West having lower approval ratings than Iowa?
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J. J.
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« Reply #4234 on: March 22, 2010, 07:00:21 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% +2

Disapprove 53% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

Over the last two days, Obama's "Strongly Approve" numbers jumped up six point.  The rest has moved slightly, but generally within 3 points.



It`s actually 47-53 (+2, -1) for today (better said for the last 3 evenings).

You are right; I corrected it.  The real movement was in "strongly approve."
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4235 on: March 22, 2010, 07:14:11 PM »

I can understand the Midwest flipping back and forth as it is, but what is up with the Pacific North West having lower approval ratings than Iowa?

Survey USA tends to give lower approval ratings than does Rasmussen, the source of most polls on this map.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4236 on: March 23, 2010, 01:39:47 AM »

SurveyUSA:

Los Angeles Area: 50% Approve, 44% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6084861c-2d3f-4ba2-bed7-a94b55dc0e31

San Diego Area: 49% Approve, 49% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=18988d6a-5237-477f-ba69-cb52397fc216

Seattle-Tacoma Area: 49% Approve, 45% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5bcf67ec-36a6-43a0-b38b-182454597194

Fresno-Visalia Area: 36% Approve, 54% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7fa13c0d-3940-48f1-a174-860f1c800b1e

Tampa-Saint Petersburg Area: 40% Approve, 55% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=50cf343d-1a54-43a9-8900-277b38c4208d
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4237 on: March 23, 2010, 01:56:22 AM »

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Exopolitician
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« Reply #4238 on: March 23, 2010, 02:00:03 AM »


These numbers prove Obama will lose California in 2012 hands down.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4239 on: March 23, 2010, 02:00:49 AM »


SUSA's definition of LA is LA County, Orange County, Santa Barbara County and Ventura County.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4240 on: March 23, 2010, 06:26:59 AM »

Not doing well in the Fresno area?

The San Joaquin Valley is California's political equivalent of the Texas Panhandle.
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Badger
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« Reply #4241 on: March 23, 2010, 08:00:33 AM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

There's always the tension in democracy of the balance leaders must strike between following the dictates of their constituency vs. striving to lead towards immediately unpopular but necessary reforms.

From what I've seen generally polls that ask Americans if they support (insert generic description of current HCR plan) the majority clearly (albeit not overwhelmingly) support it, especially if it includes language describing a public option. If polls ask whether Americans support "the Obama/ Congress's/ Democratic/currently proposed" plan they tend to split or lean opposed. That indicates when the smoke and heat from the immediate debate subsides this is a plan most Americans will support over the status quo, thus justifying Obama's firm efforts to push this through.

Put another way, half-baked accusations of death panels and the like finding some fertile ground among the gullible and temporarily reducing poll support for HCR is no reason to abandon it.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #4242 on: March 23, 2010, 08:03:23 AM »

Not doing well in the Fresno area?

The San Joaquin Valley is California's political equivalent of the Texas Panhandle.

No, it's not.  Obama won the San Joaquin Valley by 4.5% and lost the Texas Panhandle by (ballparking it) 60%.  The similarities don't start anywhere.
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Vepres
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« Reply #4243 on: March 23, 2010, 08:31:37 AM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

There's always the tension in democracy of the balance leaders must strike between following the dictates of their constituency vs. striving to lead towards immediately unpopular but necessary reforms.

From what I've seen generally polls that ask Americans if they support (insert generic description of current HCR plan) the majority clearly (albeit not overwhelmingly) support it, especially if it includes language describing a public option. If polls ask whether Americans support "the Obama/ Congress's/ Democratic/currently proposed" plan they tend to split or lean opposed. That indicates when the smoke and heat from the immediate debate subsides this is a plan most Americans will support over the status quo, thus justifying Obama's firm efforts to push this through.

Put another way, half-baked accusations of death panels and the like finding some fertile ground among the gullible and temporarily reducing poll support for HCR is no reason to abandon it.

New taxes without immediate benefits won't go over well, though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4244 on: March 23, 2010, 08:56:09 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +1

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, unchanged.

Strongly Approved is where there has been real movement, +8 points.  Obamacare is probably shored up Obama's base.  In theory, it could be a bad sample.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4245 on: March 23, 2010, 09:22:01 AM »
« Edited: March 26, 2010, 09:14:34 AM by Dave Leip »

Just ignore Vanderblub, here`s a real poll:

Indiana (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
60% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 17-18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4246 on: March 23, 2010, 09:47:17 AM »

Lowest point for Obama in Indiana yet, and probably the lowest point for a long time. This one is still from before the HCR passage, as was the one for Iowa.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

.... all preceding the vote on health-care reform.

I plan to add an asterisk to the "C"  for polls that end between March 22, 2010 and March 31, 2010 to reflect a changed political climate. There will be no averaging between polls ending before and after March 22, 2010.  






[/quote]
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4247 on: March 23, 2010, 10:38:59 AM »

Wisconsin (PPP)Sad

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 700 Wisconsin voters on March 20th and 21st. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_323.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4248 on: March 23, 2010, 11:08:16 AM »
« Edited: March 26, 2010, 09:14:56 AM by Dave Leip »

Arizona (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
56% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on March 16, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

link
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4249 on: March 23, 2010, 11:22:20 AM »

Just ignore Vanderblub, here`s a real poll:

Indiana (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
60% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 17-18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/toplines/toplines_2010_indiana_senate_march_17_18_2010

John Kerry numbers!
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