The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205306 times)
ScottM
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« Reply #4125 on: March 12, 2010, 10:13:24 AM »

Minnesota (Rasmussen)Sad

49% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_governor_march_10_2010

Them aren't good numbers for Obama at all.

You forget that Obama is at 43% at Rasmussen's national poll. Minnesota having 6% higher approvals than the nation is pretty damn good for Obama at this point. MN was only 1% more DEM than the nation on Election Night 2008.

He may be doing better in MN than the rest of the country, but if he goes into election night 2012 with MN so close, he's in trouble. So, I agree - those numbers aren't good for him.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4126 on: March 12, 2010, 11:32:09 AM »

Colorado (PPP)Sad

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 580 Colorado voters from March 5th to 8th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_312.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4127 on: March 12, 2010, 01:19:05 PM »

Colorado, Louisiana:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.
 

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4128 on: March 12, 2010, 05:17:08 PM »

Minnesota (Rasmussen)Sad

49% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_governor_march_10_2010

Them aren't good numbers for Obama at all.

Those. Those aren't good numbers for Obama at all. Alternatively they. But not them.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4129 on: March 13, 2010, 01:42:12 AM »

Here`s another tie:

Wisconsin (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute)

49% Approve
49% Disapprove

The survey of 600 randomly selected, likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted by phone with live interviewers from March 7-9.  It was directed by Ken Goldstein, a UW-Madison political science professor.

The sample of Wisconsin adults was selected by random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phones; cell-only households were not included.  The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four   percentage points. The margin of error will be higher for sub-group analysis.

WPRI – a nonpartisan, not-for-profit think tank – has been conducting surveys on politics and issues for more than 20 years and is now commissioning Goldstein to independently conduct polls on a periodic basis.

http://www.wpri.org/polls/March2010/March2010Poll.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4130 on: March 13, 2010, 09:21:51 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2010, 10:06:06 AM by pbrower2a »

Another tie, and it is in fact an improvement for the President:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.
 


.....

At this point, one can see how Obama would do  (if nothing changed between now and November 2012 -- a whopper of an assumption). If one assumes that DC,  Maine (including its two Congressional districts and Hawaii go for Obama under any circumstances and  that Mississippi, West Virginia, and Wyoming don't, and that South Carolina's recent 48-40 split goes 48-52, then one can see victory or defeat by color.

Using 2004-2008 electoral vote counts,   then green and white (except South Carolina) give Obama only 248 electoral votes, which is in essence Kerry less NH, and the Republican opponent everything that Dubya ever won.  That's a 291-247 win for the Republican opponent. If any of the states in the Blue Firewall are in doubt, then Obama loses.

Sand? (really South Carolina seems to belong to this category)  That adds everything that Obama won that Dubya won even once in either 2000 or 2004 except Indiana, Nevada, and perhaps NE-02 for which I have no reliable information -- and South Carolina. That is 108 electoral votes, and if Obama got all of those he would  win 352-186.  In fact if he got half the electoral votes from these states he would win 294 electoral votes and win re-election even with re-apportionment (which means Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and at least one of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia). Every one of those states is a legitimate swing state for 2012 in an election in which Obama wins between 48% and 52% of the popular vote. Yes, I know about likely reapportionment, but I try to keep things simple.

What about South Carolina? It may be the only state making an unambiguous drift away from the Right. Its GOP looks increasingly like a Party of Evil Clowns, and such a state party is in trouble. That does not now apply to the GOP in any other state. Nevada? It has been bouncing between sand and beige.   

With the arguable exceptions of Nevada and perhaps (lack of knowledge here) NE-02, nothing in beige gives a legitimate swing vote. Obama actually won Indiana, but he can't win the state without also winning Ohio; he can't win Georgia without also winning North Carolina and Florida; he can't win Arizona without also winning Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. Missouri is about half-Northern and half-Southern, an President Obama wins it only if he has gotten closer in the states that went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but voted strongly against Obama in 2008 (examples: Kentucky or Tennessee).  Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri cannot be considered true swing states because if they are on the margin in 2012, then he has all but won.     
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #4131 on: March 13, 2010, 01:19:41 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.
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change08
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« Reply #4132 on: March 13, 2010, 01:30:13 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.

But every other company is a Liberal hack company, didn't you know?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #4133 on: March 13, 2010, 01:42:54 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.

But every other company is a Liberal hack company, didn't you know?

Including that company called "the voters" that favored the Democrat in 4 of the last 5 elections.
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Zarn
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« Reply #4134 on: March 13, 2010, 02:23:34 PM »

Rasmussen uses a likely voter model, not a terrible one such as adults.

University polls are the worst. Their data is for the most part, useless.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4135 on: March 13, 2010, 04:09:12 PM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 54%

Both numbers are unchanged.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27% +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


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ScottM
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« Reply #4136 on: March 13, 2010, 04:47:41 PM »

Rasmussen uses a likely voter model, not a terrible one such as adults.

University polls are the worst. Their data is for the most part, useless.

Don't forget Daily Kos. Theirs are pretty useless, too.
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Vepres
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« Reply #4137 on: March 13, 2010, 05:18:26 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.

On the other side of the token you have CBS and university polls, so it evens out.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4138 on: March 13, 2010, 06:23:52 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.

Actually Rasmussen's bots were closer than Gallup in the last election.
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memphis
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« Reply #4139 on: March 13, 2010, 06:56:48 PM »

The notion that approval numbers will equal election performance (with the sort of accuracy people around hereproject) is bogus. Obama got 53% of the vote and started off with approval in the high 60s. They are completely different metrics.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4140 on: March 13, 2010, 07:24:20 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.

Actually Rasmussen's bots were closer than Gallup in the last election.

Rasmussen (among others) is measuring something, but I can never be quite sure of what it measures. About all that I can be sure of is that pollsters are fairly good at comparing states to states.
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Umengus
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« Reply #4141 on: March 14, 2010, 05:13:54 AM »

Historic facts (2004 and 2008) prove that Rasmussen is the best (national) pollster. Hence, I trust him more thant others polls. And another very good pollster, SUSA, give the same results than Ras. If you disagree with that, you have a problem with reality (and you are probably liberal...).
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« Reply #4142 on: March 14, 2010, 09:05:46 AM »

Historic facts (2004 and 2008) prove that Rasmussen is the best (national) pollster.

Not so much with the states though. And in November 2008, Rass wasn't as crazily different to the other companies, they are now.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4143 on: March 14, 2010, 02:42:25 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% (+1)

Disapprove 53% (-1)


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

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Zarn
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« Reply #4144 on: March 14, 2010, 06:18:53 PM »

Historic facts (2004 and 2008) prove that Rasmussen is the best (national) pollster.

Not so much with the states though. And in November 2008, Rass wasn't as crazily different to the other companies, they are now.

I remember numerous complaints about Ras in 2008.
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CJK
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« Reply #4145 on: March 15, 2010, 09:34:35 AM »

A bit late but...

Obama Gallup approval in February 2010:

50% Approve

43% Disapprove

Trends for comparsion:

Carter: 49/34 (February 1978)

Reagan: 47/43 (February 1982)

Bush I: 73/16 (February 1990)

Clinton: 53/41 (February 1994)

Bush II: 82/14 (February 2002)
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #4146 on: March 15, 2010, 09:38:30 AM »

A bit late but...

Obama Gallup approval in February 2010:

50% Approve

43% Disapprove

Trends for comparsion:

Carter: 49/34 (February 1978)

Reagan: 47/43 (February 1982)

Bush I: 73/16 (February 1990)

Clinton: 53/41 (February 1994)

Bush II: 82/14 (February 2002)

So he's closest to where Reagan was, huh?  Hmm ... this must mean a 1984-style landslide is on the way.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4147 on: March 15, 2010, 11:26:27 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% (-1)

Disapprove 54% (+1)


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, unchanged.
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4148 on: March 15, 2010, 05:21:12 PM »

Obama approval (gallup)

49-44 approve and disapprove
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4149 on: March 16, 2010, 01:17:36 AM »

Strategic Vision is back !

Georgia:

37% Approve
50% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted March 5-8, 2010 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_031510.htm
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