The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #3600 on: January 19, 2010, 09:37:39 PM »


Those numbers are heartening.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #3601 on: January 20, 2010, 12:35:42 AM »

Not bad Obama numbers in Texas.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3602 on: January 20, 2010, 01:23:04 AM »


Really good -- enough to make President Obama seem "competitive" in the Lone Star State. Of course, if I am Obama I don't want to depend upon Texas; I'd want Michigan to be a sure thing. If Obama is even "competitive" in Texas in 2012, then the GOP nominee is cooked. There will be an open Senate seat in Texas in 2012.

In any event, Pollster.com has an interesting poll on President Obama's approval ratings:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_national_survey_cbs_11417.php

US: National Survey (CBS 1/14-17)
Emily Swanson | January 19, 2010

CBS News
1/14-17/10; 1,090 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: Palin story, results; Obama story, results; Haiti story, results; Bank Bonuses story, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
50% Approve, 40% Disapprove (chart)
Reps: 25 / 65 (chart)
Dems: 81 / 13 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 47 (chart)
Foreign policy: 49 / 38 (chart)
Economy: 46 / 48 (chart)
Health Care: 40 / 54 (chart)
Haiti: 80 / 8

State of the Country
36% Right Direction, 55% Wrong Track (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
23% Approve, 63% disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dems in Congress: 44 / 48
Reps in Congress: 34 / 56
Sarah Palin: 26 / 41 (chart)
Tea Party movement: 18 / 12

Would you like to see Sarah Palin run for president of the United States in 2012, or not?
21% Would, 71% Would not


Party ID
36% Democrat, 28% Republican, 33% independent (chart)

Comments:

1. Health care reform remains a political millstone.

2. The economy is best described as a "maybe".

3. Foreign policy is reasonably strong.

4. The President's response to Haiti looks almost as good as did Dubya's response to 9/11. It is his first challenge as an administrator.

5. Any "bump" in the approval for the President is probably linked to his response to the earthquake in Haiti.

6. Congress isn't looked upon well, but Republicans in Congress are doing very badly. 

7. As it is, Sarah Palin  looks as if she would go down to a defeat so severe that she could be spoken of in the same sentence as Landon, Goldwater, McGovern, and Mondale if she got the Republican nomination. When 71% of the public doesn't want her to run, then she isn't popular enough among Republicans to stand a chance.   

8. The Tea Party "movement" has drawn little attention. 
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Zarn
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« Reply #3603 on: January 20, 2010, 07:09:01 AM »

Obama has wasted too much capital on healthcare ( wayy too much if it fails anyway).
This administration should be setting the agenda not allowing debate within the country to take control of it.  Say what you want to about the evil bush adminstation, you can't deny they knew how to get the message across and stir the country in their direction.  They'd been better off attacking the jobs/unemployment issue.




That is one of the aspects of the Bush Administration that I despise.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3604 on: January 20, 2010, 08:51:14 AM »

Louisiana updated.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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GLPman
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« Reply #3605 on: January 20, 2010, 10:17:38 AM »

Louisiana updated.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Wow. I'd say Obama is definitely in trouble.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3606 on: January 20, 2010, 10:51:43 AM »

Obama has wasted too much capital on healthcare ( wayy too much if it fails anyway).
This administration should be setting the agenda not allowing debate within the country to take control of it.  Say what you want to about the evil bush adminstation, you can't deny they knew how to get the message across and stir the country in their direction.  They'd been better off attacking the jobs/unemployment issue.

To the contrary: the Bush administration proved adept at gaming language so that it sounded like something far different from what it was. The first indication that I got of this was his "Healthy Forests Initiative", a promotion of the quick-buck practice of loggers known as "clear-cutting". Loggers remove every tree for its lumber, and all that is left is a bare slope easily eroded. But profits come swiftly, and erosion leaves huge costs and may make a denuded moonscape  with little capacity to ever grow trees again. "Healthy forest"? No forest is left, but there certainly are no unhealthy trees allowed to remain. Such was in 2001 soon after the Bush inauguration.

That was only the first. "No Child Left Behind" sounds like an effort to ensure that no child, whatever economic and cultural reality he grows up in, would avoid a rigorous and effective education and would thus get a chance in life. Much of NCLB relied upon standardized testing that would test academic results, and schools would be penalized for substandard performance. In theory that is wonderful as a means of forcing incompetent teachers into different lines of work and require those remaining to improve their methods... but as it turns out, individual upbringing and  fiscal realities of underfunded schools in impoverished areas would ensure that the usual knowledge that underprivileged kids would get shoved even further into failure as resources for their schools would be gutted while the kids with more advantages would get more resources directed toward them.

I can only think of the lyrics of a 19th-century folksong, The Dodger, and it has nothing to do with a baseball team formerly in Brooklyn:

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Rowan
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« Reply #3607 on: January 20, 2010, 02:03:48 PM »

Maryland(Gonzales Research)

Approve 56%
Disapprove 30%

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/Surveys/Maryland_Media_Poll_January_2010.htm



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3608 on: January 20, 2010, 02:07:13 PM »

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)Sad

55% Approve
40% Disapprove

From January 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,175 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1414
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Rowan
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« Reply #3609 on: January 20, 2010, 02:10:56 PM »

New Jersey.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3610 on: January 20, 2010, 02:59:50 PM »

California (Field)Sad

56% Approve
34% Disapprove

These are the findings from the latest Field Poll completed January 5-17 among a representative
sample of 1,232 registered voters in California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2321.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3611 on: January 20, 2010, 03:03:51 PM »

AP-GfK:

56% Approve
42% Disapprove

Interview dates: January 12 – 17, 2010
Interviews: 1,008 adults
Margin of error: +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_Jan_2010_Final_Topline.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #3612 on: January 20, 2010, 03:04:18 PM »

AP-GfK:

56% Approve
42% Disapprove

Interview dates: January 12 – 17, 2010
Interviews: 1,008 adults
Margin of error: +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_Jan_2010_Final_Topline.pdf

LOL
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3613 on: January 20, 2010, 03:28:32 PM »

Update for Maryland; California and New Jersey show no change:





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Maryland and Montana (November 2009), which rarely get polled.




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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3614 on: January 20, 2010, 03:30:14 PM »

Indiana (Public Opinion Strategies - R)Sad

44% Approve
53% Disapprove

(Gov. Daniels)

65% Approve
29% Disapprove

The poll was taken by Public Opinion Strategies of 600 likely voters on January 5-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0%.

http://www.indianabarrister.com/archives/2010/01/poll_watching-3.html

http://www.thelakecountygop.com/news/183-governor-daniels
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MK
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« Reply #3615 on: January 20, 2010, 03:31:49 PM »

Obama has wasted too much capital on healthcare ( wayy too much if it fails anyway).
This administration should be setting the agenda not allowing debate within the country to take control of it.  Say what you want to about the evil bush adminstation, you can't deny they knew how to get the message across and stir the country in their direction.  They'd been better off attacking the jobs/unemployment issue.

To the contrary: the Bush administration proved adept at gaming language so that it sounded like something far different from what it was. The first indication that I got of this was his "Healthy Forests Initiative", a promotion of the quick-buck practice of loggers known as "clear-cutting". Loggers remove every tree for its lumber, and all that is left is a bare slope easily eroded. But profits come swiftly, and erosion leaves huge costs and may make a denuded moonscape  with little capacity to ever grow trees again. "Healthy forest"? No forest is left, but there certainly are no unhealthy trees allowed to remain. Such was in 2001 soon after the Bush inauguration.

That was only the first. "No Child Left Behind" sounds like an effort to ensure that no child, whatever economic and cultural reality he grows up in, would avoid a rigorous and effective education and would thus get a chance in life. Much of NCLB relied upon standardized testing that would test academic results, and schools would be penalized for substandard performance. In theory that is wonderful as a means of forcing incompetent teachers into different lines of work and require those remaining to improve their methods... but as it turns out, individual upbringing and  fiscal realities of underfunded schools in impoverished areas would ensure that the usual knowledge that underprivileged kids would get shoved even further into failure as resources for their schools would be gutted while the kids with more advantages would get more resources directed toward them.

I can only think of the lyrics of a 19th-century folksong, The Dodger, and it has nothing to do with a baseball team formerly in Brooklyn:

Quote
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No, im referring to  after 9/11.        The Bush administration  was able to get people behind them for a war that had nothing to do with 9/11. But because they were so good at setting the agenda they made it happen.  Of course once people found out it was all over for them, but hey  it worked.

Obamas  administration don't know how to do this.    

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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3616 on: January 20, 2010, 03:33:12 PM »

Indiana (Public Opinion Strategies - R)Sad

44% Approve
53% Disapprove



Better than I expected in Indiana to be honest.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3617 on: January 20, 2010, 04:10:20 PM »

Indiana (Public Opinion Strategies - R)Sad

44% Approve
53% Disapprove

(Gov. Daniels)

65% Approve
29% Disapprove

The poll was taken by Public Opinion Strategies of 600 likely voters on January 5-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0%.

http://www.indianabarrister.com/archives/2010/01/poll_watching-3.html

http://www.thelakecountygop.com/news/183-governor-daniels
Finally! Smiley
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Rowan
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« Reply #3618 on: January 20, 2010, 04:31:32 PM »

Indiana added. The CA Field Poll was in the field starting on January 5. The Rasmussen CA poll was in the field on January 13 and will be used for my map.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Zarn
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« Reply #3619 on: January 20, 2010, 05:03:30 PM »

No dark greens?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3620 on: January 20, 2010, 05:52:41 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2010, 11:26:36 PM by pbrower2a »

Indiana doesn't get polled often. Even with the caveat that the poll is published by the Republican Party of Lake County, Indiana, it is reasonable enough that I accept it. No letter "S" appears here. Beggars can't be choosers for a poll of Indiana, as I said of a Democratic poll a few months ago with a poll that the Democrats leaked. It's not that far from the Democratic poll of a few months ago.

President Obama would of course lose the state to Governor Mitch Daniels, whose approval rating is in the mid-60s with an approval rating of 44% for the President, by a huge margin, but against anyone else the state would be competitive for Obama. The GOP can't afford to have Indiana  "competitive", as a large number of states that Republicans absolutely must win go Democratic (Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina), before Indiana.  Democratic nominees with the initials JFK were clobbered in Indiana (Kerry in 2004, Kennedy in 1960); Clinton was never close. Truman did get close in 1948... and contrary to myth, Dewey didn't have a chance.

It's hard to believe that such states as Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, Texas, and Virginia are in the same category... but they are now.  






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.
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change08
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« Reply #3621 on: January 20, 2010, 06:10:20 PM »

He's back over 50% nationally at Pollster and Rasmussen has given him the best he's had in a while today.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3622 on: January 20, 2010, 06:37:31 PM »


Nope. Under 60% everywhere(maybe not Vermont, but we have no poll).
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3623 on: January 20, 2010, 06:41:33 PM »

New York(Rasmussen)

Approve 56%
Disapprove 43%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/election_2010_new_york_senate

Arkansas(TBQ)

Approve 37%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ar_ratings_tbq_11315.php



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3624 on: January 20, 2010, 11:38:29 PM »

Polls I'd like to see:

Michigan, Virginia -- December polls could already be obsolete. How can Michigan have a sub-50 approval when Obama's approval rating is above 50%? How can Obama be seen more sympathetically in North Carolina than in Virginia?

Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, Tennessee, Wisconsin: It's been awhile. They would be interesting.

Delaware, Hawaii, Maine: likely strong Democratic states that haven't appeared for a long time.

Florida: I don't like ties -- do you?

South Carolina... is that for real?

NE-01, NE-02... Obama probably has a 70% disapproval rating in NE-03, one of the most conservative districts in America and the last electoral vote that Obama could ever get under any circumstances, but NE-01 votes like Texas and NE-02 votes like Indiana. 
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