The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205976 times)
ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3175 on: December 14, 2009, 06:17:09 PM »

Posted on Pollster.com, Obama Approval in Wisconsin 60/37 (done by UW)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wi_obama_doyle_uwisc_10291120.php
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3176 on: December 14, 2009, 06:22:58 PM »


I find that hard to believe.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3177 on: December 14, 2009, 06:25:36 PM »

As do I...just figured I'd post as I saw it.  Not sure if its worth updating the map with a clearly sketchy poll
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3178 on: December 14, 2009, 06:26:52 PM »

As do I...just figured I'd post as I saw it.  Not sure if its worth updating the map with a clearly sketchy poll

pbrower will update it, since Obama has a 60% approval in it.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #3179 on: December 14, 2009, 07:30:06 PM »

Rasmussen has obama at his lowest to date 44%.

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BannedAndBitten
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« Reply #3180 on: December 14, 2009, 07:57:58 PM »

The first and last black president (ha).
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #3181 on: December 14, 2009, 09:24:03 PM »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3182 on: December 14, 2009, 10:08:34 PM »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

And look at the dates 10/29-11/20. A month long poll is garbage.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3183 on: December 14, 2009, 10:41:30 PM »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 5050.

The poll is old, but it is clearly above 50%, even with "likely voters". That marginally breaks a tie. College-based polling takes time because it isn't professional. I'll go with "likely voters".





Because it is clearly not a December poll, it has the letter "K" for November. It must average with November polls.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3184 on: December 14, 2009, 10:46:53 PM »

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3185 on: December 14, 2009, 11:26:20 PM »

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...

The first state to be polled after one of those SUSA polls (Virginia) absolutely smashed the credibility of the SUSA poll. I have changed none of them before a new poll for the state was released.

The Wisconsin poll is already obsolete, and all in all it shows an average. . 
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3186 on: December 14, 2009, 11:32:12 PM »

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...

The first state to be polled after one of those SUSA polls (Virginia) absolutely smashed the credibility of the SUSA poll. I have changed none of them before a new poll for the state was released.

The Wisconsin poll is already obsolete, and all in all it shows an average. . 

All, I hear is.. blah blah blah, I'm a hack, I'm a hack, I worship you Obama, blah, blah..

Say whatever you want, but we all know what you are..
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3187 on: December 15, 2009, 12:01:55 AM »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

The poll is old, but it is clearly above 50%, even with "likely voters". That marginally breaks a tie. College-based polling takes time because it isn't professional. I'll go with "likely voters".

So now a poll of likely voters for the 2010 midterms is OK?  About 50 pages back in this thread, you were rejecting polls of "likely voters" because "likely voters" in an off-year election aren't the same as likely voters in a presidential year.

Of course, half the polls on your map are probably of likely voters for 2009 or 2010, but you rarely ever pay attention to such things.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3188 on: December 15, 2009, 01:20:50 AM »


According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

The poll is old, but it is clearly above 50%, even with "likely voters". That marginally breaks a tie. College-based polling takes time because it isn't professional. I'll go with "likely voters".

So now a poll of likely voters for the 2010 midterms is OK?  About 50 pages back in this thread, you were rejecting polls of "likely voters" because "likely voters" in an off-year election aren't the same as likely voters in a presidential year.

Of course, half the polls on your map are probably of likely voters for 2009 or 2010, but you rarely ever pay attention to such things.


"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

The only state whose polls should remain affected by "likely voters, off year elections" is New Jersey. The other state, Virginia, has a December poll. 

For the aging Wisconsin poll, both the 60% and 54% polls of approval would have had the same effect because the Wisconsin poll is an average that goes between 50% and 55%. The exact tie was at something under 50%.

My method doesn't always create the highest possible value for Obama. Look at it this way: add 4% to approval and you get an estimate of the likely vote. 60% approval for Obama in Wisconsin? Does anyone reasonably expect Obama to win 60% or more of the vote for President in Wisconsin in 2012? Not I.  58%? That implies about a 16% spread, not far from the 2008 results.   
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3189 on: December 15, 2009, 08:22:06 AM »

Please go away.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3190 on: December 15, 2009, 12:50:18 PM »

South Dakota(PPP)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SD_1215.pdf
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Alcon
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« Reply #3191 on: December 15, 2009, 01:03:26 PM »

"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

Uh, not really.  Turnout in midterm years is closer to off-years, in both percent turnout and composition of the electorate.  What makes you think otherwise?
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BannedAndBitten
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« Reply #3192 on: December 15, 2009, 02:17:31 PM »

I disapprove immensely.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3193 on: December 15, 2009, 03:17:52 PM »

NY State (Quinnipiac)Sad

59% Approve
36% Disapprove

From December 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,692 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 719 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1404
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segwaystyle2012
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« Reply #3194 on: December 15, 2009, 03:22:27 PM »

"Likely voters" in a midterm election are far closer to those of a Presidential election than are those in an odd-year election. For now, midterm elections matter far more than does the 2012 election.

Uh, not really.  Turnout in midterm years is closer to off-years, in both percent turnout and composition of the electorate.  What makes you think otherwise?

He lacks the ability to serve as an objective commentator/is a troll.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3195 on: December 15, 2009, 03:41:51 PM »

Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.

Nevermind the fact that favorables and approval aren't the same thing. But apparently hacks don't care about things like that.

Civitas looks far more reliable than does SurveyUSA.


lol



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3196 on: December 15, 2009, 04:14:28 PM »


Surprisingly good for Obama, considering that South Dakota is close to being majority-Republican:

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................  35%
Republican......................................................   48%
Independent/Other..........................................  18%

and skewed "elderly" in population:

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 15%
30 to 45........................................................... 21%
46 to 65........................................................... 44%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

That Obama was able to get within 10% in South Dakota in 2008 looks all the more remarkable now.

NY State (Quinnipiac)Sad

59% Approve
36% Disapprove

From December 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,692 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 719 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1404

Another SUSA poll from November 2009 crashes and burns. Is that luck or does my intuition about that batch of polls not apply west of the Appalachians yet?


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segwaystyle2012
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« Reply #3197 on: December 15, 2009, 05:19:45 PM »

Go away pbrower
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3198 on: December 15, 2009, 06:48:26 PM »


Criticize my analysis and expose my bias if you wish; I'm not leaving.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3199 on: December 15, 2009, 06:48:59 PM »

I criticized your analysis and you just ignored me Sad
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