The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082547 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #3075 on: November 25, 2009, 09:51:08 PM »

LOL. It's kinda funny which polls he questions, and which ones he doesn't. I've never seen someone that can write so much, but ultimately say so little in their posts.

Outliers attract investigation.  If other statewide polls corroborate those, then "S"s will be replaced most likely with "L" this month, "M" in December, or "A" in January. Polls just don't move so wildly without explanation, and polls that suggest the same thing don't exhibit so many anomalies.

Did you even read the crosstabs? I leave them alone when the polls in question seem consistent with others.  Yes, I was looking for cause to discredit them. You are even welcome to claim that the "S" stands not so much for "spurious" as "spite on my part". Some of these look like somebody's wishful thinking more than they look like reasonable assessments of political reality. When crosstabs suggest very different behavior by similar parts of the respective electorates in states that have some similarity, then something is fishy.

Possible? Sure. I haven't changed the coloring on the map that someone showed using rules that I established. I expect some of those states that have strange results to have results more in character with recent behavior.  
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3076 on: November 25, 2009, 09:57:17 PM »

Yet you include (without any similar asterisk on the map) a leaked Democratic internal poll in Indiana, which was a poll of favorability rather than job approval, with the explanation that there aren't many polls of Indiana and "beggars can't be choosers"?
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #3077 on: November 26, 2009, 01:09:51 AM »

I'm sorry but what do those maps with the letters mean?  Never got that.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3078 on: November 26, 2009, 01:16:20 AM »

Yet you include (without any similar asterisk on the map) a leaked Democratic internal poll in Indiana, which was a poll of favorability rather than job approval, with the explanation that there aren't many polls of Indiana and "beggars can't be choosers"?


Not much can be had from one set of data points. The SUSA collections of polls had some whoppers. I might have accepted one or two of them at face value, but when they seem not only to contradict everyone else and have internal inconsistencies...

Please don't criticize my practice of giving an "S" as in "spurious" or "suspicious" for polls in similar states that show vast differences in voting behavior between similar groups of people. The map that someone used to show SUSA statewide polls remains.... but it is ready for change when fresh polls come in. Outliers and polls with suspicious crosstabs should be knocked out at the first opportunity. If someone comes up with a Missouri 46-52 poll it goes there promptly. If someone comes up with a Missouri 26-70 it goes up promptly.

Does anyone believe that Missouri and Virginia would suddenly show disapproval ratings typical for Alabama or Kansas? Does it even make sense?
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Zarn
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« Reply #3079 on: November 26, 2009, 12:05:45 PM »

It does make sense, actually.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3080 on: November 26, 2009, 03:43:50 PM »


No. The states have their own political cultures. Missouri isn't Kansas, and Virginia isn't Alabama. If SUSA had shown Alabama or Alabama something like 28/65 but Missouri 38/60 then the polls for Missouri would have more credibility. 
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Rowan
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« Reply #3081 on: November 26, 2009, 05:20:18 PM »

Alabama has a large black population which artificially inflates Obama's approval.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3082 on: November 26, 2009, 05:23:57 PM »


No. The states have their own political cultures. Missouri isn't Kansas, and Virginia isn't Alabama. If SUSA had shown Alabama or Alabama something like 28/65 but Missouri 38/60 then the polls for Missouri would have more credibility. 

Incorrect. The black population creates a floor for Obama in the state, and his numbers can't go down very far from 2008 levels really. Missouri on the other hand has a lot of potential to go down.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3083 on: November 26, 2009, 06:03:37 PM »

The black population in Alabama is 26.7%.  That is not such a high 'floor'.  Missouri has a population about 12% black; Virginia is about 20% black. That is not the entire explanation. Take a look at the black population of Kansas: it is roughly 6.5%, so if the black populatio nnforms a floor for support in Kansas, the state should register somewhere near 25% approval for Obama if Missouri shows 32% approval.  This comes from the same pollster  and I presume the same methodology.

I say this: I just don't trust the validity of those polls.  They look like outliers inconsistent with 5roughly 50-50 support for Obama nationwide; these are consistent with something more like 43-50 nationwide.

Here's something to consider: it is possible that Obama has a problem very different from a challenge from the Right: a challenge from the Left, among people who think that he is not going far enough and fast enough in changing America. The GOP has no obvious means of exploiting such a trend if such is so.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3084 on: November 26, 2009, 08:58:23 PM »

They don't all have to be black, in order to be a part of the floor.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3085 on: November 26, 2009, 10:02:16 PM »

Just watch carefully for changes that either affirm or refute the SUSA polls. 
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Zarn
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« Reply #3086 on: November 27, 2009, 08:30:44 AM »

I'm not SUSA's biggest fan, either. Then again, you are talking to the guy that is suspicious of Gallup as well.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3087 on: November 29, 2009, 10:59:36 AM »

Interestingly, this thread already has the fourth highest number of posts of all time on Atlas.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=stats

Anyway, carry on....
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3088 on: November 29, 2009, 01:22:58 PM »

Gallup:

Approve - 51%
Disapprove - 41%
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Umengus
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« Reply #3089 on: November 29, 2009, 02:37:56 PM »

daily kos / R 2000

Fav/unfav

53-40
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #3090 on: November 29, 2009, 04:22:33 PM »

Interestingly, this thread already has the fourth highest number of posts of all time on Atlas.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=stats

Anyway, carry on....

I love how BRTD has started TWICE as many topics as the person in second place.
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CJK
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« Reply #3091 on: December 01, 2009, 05:36:05 PM »

Obama's Gallup approval rating average for November:

51% Approve
42% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 56/30 (November 1977)

Reagan: 52/39 (November 1981)

Bush I: 70/17 (November 1989)

Clinton: 49/44 (November 1993)

Bush II: 87/9 (November 2001)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3092 on: December 02, 2009, 01:04:17 AM »

Utah (Dan Jones)Sad

38% Approve
60% Disapprove

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705348448/Most-Utahns-unhappy-with-Obama.html
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change08
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« Reply #3093 on: December 02, 2009, 05:44:16 AM »


Well he can't be doing that bad then, it's better than the '08 results. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3094 on: December 02, 2009, 10:44:25 AM »

Utah checks in with the first December poll. That's what the "L" stands for:

 

The "S" continues to stand for "spurious" or "suspect". The Utah poll suggests that Obama is about where he was on Election Night, 2008... he can't be doing that badly in Missouri, Virginia, or even Kentucky. Kansas or Alabama? Maybe.

If Huckabee isn't running, the only conceivable way in which Obama could win Utah -- that Huckabee makes a big gaff about Mormonism -- is no longer possible.

It's unlikely that many polls were taken last week (Thanksgiving), so it may be a while before those "S" polls vanish. 
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GLPman
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« Reply #3095 on: December 02, 2009, 11:45:36 AM »

Utah checks in with the first December poll. That's what the "L" stands for:

 

The "S" continues to stand for "spurious" or "suspect". The Utah poll suggests that Obama is about where he was on Election Night, 2008... he can't be doing that badly in Missouri, Virginia, or even Kentucky. Kansas or Alabama? Maybe.

If Huckabee isn't running, the only conceivable way in which Obama could win Utah -- that Huckabee makes a big gaff about Mormonism -- is no longer possible.

It's unlikely that many polls were taken last week (Thanksgiving), so it may be a while before those "S" polls vanish. 

If you're going to add "S" to poll results that are suspect, you should probably go ahead and put an S right in the middle of North Carolina.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3096 on: December 03, 2009, 08:08:14 AM »

Arkansas(Rasmussen)

Approve 34%
Disapprove 66%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_2010_arkansas_senate_race_december_1_2009
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3097 on: December 03, 2009, 05:11:21 PM »

Obama at 53-41 in Delaware, per PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_DE_1203.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3098 on: December 03, 2009, 06:19:22 PM »

Arkansas and Delaware check in with polls that I don't think spurious. Here's a new one for Obama-bashers: the 66% disapproval for Obama rounds up to "70" according to my rules:

 

The "S" continues to stand for "spurious" or "suspect". The Utah poll suggests that Obama is about where he was on Election Night, 2008... he can't be doing that badly in Missouri, Virginia, or even Kentucky. Kansas or Alabama? Maybe.

"L" stands for the 12th month of the year as well as the 12th letter of the alphabet. January 2009 will be "A".


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MagneticFree
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« Reply #3099 on: December 04, 2009, 01:46:28 AM »

When are we getting polls for WY, ND, SD, MS and SC?
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