The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206559 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #3000 on: November 19, 2009, 10:04:36 PM »

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But the decisions that have been made about the trial have been unpopular.
You can spout all that crap you want, but most people don't know that, or don't care. This is an approval ratings thread, and it has obviously sunken Obama's approval ratings.

There will be good news, and there will be bad news for the President. What should a criminal trial of an alleged  terrorist in no way connected to any interest group in the United States have to do with the performance of the President? This is one of those things that happens. It's over an event, horrible as it was, that ended eight years ago. KSM is not going to be held in indefinite detention in Guantanamo.

The trial will not drag on indefinitely. If you know me from other Forums I never predict the result of any criminal trial in the United States before a verdict is reached.  At least not any more. I thought that OJ Simpson would be convicted for the murder of his ex-wife and that Scott Peterson would walk. The legal process works much the same irrespective of who is President.

I can predict this: KSM will fail badly at any attempt to use his trial as a forum for pushing his ideology of murderous Jihad. In view of what he is charged with he will need an acquittal lest he be buried alive in the federal criminal system, most likely a Supermax facility, until he dies in prison, lethal injection or otherwise. He has that to concern himself with above all else.

Terrorists of various kinds have been convicted in the federal courts, and their prospects upon conviction have been unpleasant. Need I mention the WTC bombers, Aryan Nations figures, Nichols and McVeigh, and the Unabomber? People involved in the embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es-Salaam? Did any of those cases have any influence upon subsequent elections?

Heck, state prosecutions have dealt effectively with terrorists. Do you remember the case of Mir Aimal Kasi, who positioned himself to mow down people leaving CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia? He was eventually arrested by federal authorities and turned over to the legal system of the State of Virginia.  Hew has since been executed for murder -- a State violation, and not a federal one.

Much possible evidence and testimony will need to be stricken from the case... but if the federal prosecutors are effective, and they seem ready for the case... I need say no more.   

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3001 on: November 19, 2009, 10:11:41 PM »

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But the decisions that have been made about the trial have been unpopular.
You can spout all that crap you want, but most people don't know that, or don't care. This is an approval ratings thread, and it has obviously sunken Obama's approval ratings.

It's also transitory. It's not on the same level as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; it doesn't involve the economy. It doesn't even entail a trial of persons from the prior administration -- which could make the President look vindictive.

Whether the House and Senate pass health care reform will matter far more greatly to voters in 2012. So will whether we have some resolution of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.   
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3002 on: November 20, 2009, 02:32:30 PM »

Gallup:

Approve - 49%
Disapprove - 44%
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3003 on: November 20, 2009, 02:36:34 PM »

Not good for Obama...
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Zarn
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« Reply #3004 on: November 20, 2009, 02:39:40 PM »

Rasmussen (LV)
Approve: 47% (+1)
Disapprove: 52%

Gallup (A)
Approve: 49% (-1)
Disapprove: 44%

The approvals are similar averaging to 48%. The Disapprovals aren't, but they average to 48%, also. I know the two use different voter types, but the average of them makes Obama as well liked as he is disliked. I saw the other post for Gallup, but I just wanted to give a quick analysis of the two.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3005 on: November 20, 2009, 02:54:00 PM »


The answer to Rush Limbaugh...
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #3006 on: November 20, 2009, 06:24:31 PM »

He's dropping fast!

But I thought he was going to unite the country?

If this keeps up, he may well prove himself to be a bigger divider than George W. Bush ever was.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3007 on: November 20, 2009, 07:09:47 PM »

I wouldn't call that fast at all.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #3008 on: November 20, 2009, 07:11:56 PM »

You guys are dumb. Guess whose approval ratings dropped faster than Obama's?


Ronald Reagan, he of the 49-state re-election victory.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3009 on: November 20, 2009, 08:29:28 PM »

You guys are dumb. Guess whose approval ratings dropped faster than Obama's?


Ronald Reagan, he of the 49-state re-election victory.

Considering that Barack Obama's political talents are similar to those of Ronald Reagan, I'm not unduly concerned. There have been and will be ups and downs. I think that President Obama made a gaffe in prejudging the KSM trial (he should have kept his mouth shut on that one because he has no personal involvement in the case and really can't), he's going to get as much heat as Richard Nixon got in prejudging the Tate-LaBianca murders. 
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Zarn
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« Reply #3010 on: November 20, 2009, 08:40:40 PM »

You guys are dumb. Guess whose approval ratings dropped faster than Obama's?


Ronald Reagan, he of the 49-state re-election victory.

So Obama is going to lose Minnesota? Cheesy
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3011 on: November 20, 2009, 08:54:33 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2009, 10:40:07 PM by pbrower2a »

This may be more relevant:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1120.pdf

(Basically, how would you vote, given the choices?)  :

Obama 49
Huckabee 44

Obama 51
Palin 43

Obama 46
Paul 38

Obama 48
Romney 43

Significantly the sample showed that there was only a 2% difference in the number of voters found who had voted for Obama and for McCain in 2008, indicating that this sample is likely more R-leaning than the average. The potential Republican candidate was shown first in the PDF.

All four potential opponents seem to do less well against Obama than did McCain. I could play little games by trying to adjust the mutual ratings by arbitrary factors, including the practice of splitting the difference... but such would be imprecise. Huckabee and Romney both have serious weaknesses of regional support, and both Palin and Paul have such serious nationwide weaknesses that either would be crushed in LBJ-style landslides.  
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change08
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« Reply #3012 on: November 20, 2009, 08:57:11 PM »

This may be more relevant:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1120.pdf

(Basically, how would you vote, given the choices?)  :

Obama 49
Huckabee 44

Obama 51
Palin 43

Obama 46
Paul 38

Obama 48
Romney 43

Significantly the sample showed that there was only a 2% difference in the number of voters found who had voted for Obama and for McCain in 2008, indicating that this sample is likely more R-leaning than the average. The potential Republican candidate was shown first in the PDF.

All four potential opponents seem to do less well against Obama than did McCain. I could play little games by trying to adjust the mutual ratings by arbitrary factors... but such would be imprecise. Huckabee and Romney both have serious weaknesses of regional support, and both Palin and Paul have such serious nationwide weaknesses that either would be crushed in LBJ-style landslides.  

Paul would get crushed, but even though I dispise the Gov. I gotta say, I think she'd atleast hit 150-175 electoral votes.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #3013 on: November 20, 2009, 09:00:44 PM »

As I've said elsewhere, while I personally will never support Obama and while my heart flutters a little bit when I see his popularity declining, I don't see any way at all that the Republicans can take back the White House in 2012.  The next presidential election Republicans have a chance at winning is 2016.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3014 on: November 20, 2009, 11:07:51 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2009, 11:33:43 PM by pbrower2a »

This may be more relevant:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1120.pdf

(Basically, how would you vote, given the choices?)  :

Obama 49
Huckabee 44

Obama 51
Palin 43

Obama 46
Paul 38

Obama 48
Romney 43

Significantly the sample showed that there was only a 2% difference in the number of voters found who had voted for Obama and for McCain in 2008, indicating that this sample is likely more R-leaning than the average. The potential Republican candidate was shown first in the PDF.

All four potential opponents seem to do less well against Obama than did McCain. I could play little games by trying to adjust the mutual ratings by arbitrary factors... but such would be imprecise. Huckabee and Romney both have serious weaknesses of regional support, and both Palin and Paul have such serious nationwide weaknesses that either would be crushed in LBJ-style landslides.  

Paul would get crushed, but even though I dispise the Gov. I gotta say, I think she'd atleast hit 150-175 electoral votes.

Were I to simply split the undecided vote 50-50, which I figure is the most charitable thing to do, I would expect a 54-46 split of the vote. Obama would win everything that he won in 2008, pick up Missouri (which would take very little change in the national percentage of votes to win), Montana (more "iffy"), and Arizona (no Favorite Son Republican candidate) while making the Dakotas and Georgia really close. If the undecided largely stayed home, one would simply divide both 51% and 43% by 0.94 (division by a number less than one gives a large number, so don't be shocked), and we'd see about the same thing (54.2% versus 45.8%), which wouldn't result in many more electoral votes on the net going to Obama in 2012 than in 2008.

Basically you are right and I am wring; Obama would end up with about  380 to 400 electoral votes, leaving Sarah Palin with 140 to 160 electoral votes (Obama would have to pick up either Arizona or Missouri simply to offset the number of electoral votes that he loses from re-apportionment of Congressional seats in those states that he won in 2008; almost all will have lost seats), and Sarah Palin will have come out with the third-highest electoral vote total ever for someone not a white male.

Either way, you are right.  No electoral blowout happens unless the polarization of the American electorate doesn't abate.

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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #3015 on: November 20, 2009, 11:14:45 PM »

This may be more relevant:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1120.pdf

(Basically, how would you vote, given the choices?)  :

Obama 49
Huckabee 44

Obama 51
Palin 43

Obama 46
Paul 38

Obama 48
Romney 43

Significantly the sample showed that there was only a 2% difference in the number of voters found who had voted for Obama and for McCain in 2008, indicating that this sample is likely more R-leaning than the average. The potential Republican candidate was shown first in the PDF.

All four potential opponents seem to do less well against Obama than did McCain. I could play little games by trying to adjust the mutual ratings by arbitrary factors... but such would be imprecise. Huckabee and Romney both have serious weaknesses of regional support, and both Palin and Paul have such serious nationwide weaknesses that either would be crushed in LBJ-style landslides.  

Paul would get crushed, but even though I dispise the Gov. I gotta say, I think she'd atleast hit 150-175 electoral votes.
Nothing more than baseless conjecture. Paul does not currently have an iota of profile that Palin does. People know Palin, and dislike Palin. They don't know Paul.
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War on Want
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« Reply #3016 on: November 20, 2009, 11:31:46 PM »

He's dropping fast!

But I thought he was going to unite the country?

If this keeps up, he may well prove himself to be a bigger divider than George W. Bush ever was.
You know that's kind of different when there was a propaganda machine(the Democrats have one too so don't throw the OMG BIASED LIBERAL CARD at me) geared up against him from the beginning and he didn't have the right kind of angry, populist rhetoric during a terrible recession. Obama would be a great uniter during peacetime but during a long recession, where there is much anger against the "elite" and the establishment he is definitely polarizing.
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Vepres
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« Reply #3017 on: November 20, 2009, 11:48:21 PM »

As I've said elsewhere, while I personally will never support Obama and while my heart flutters a little bit when I see his popularity declining, I don't see any way at all that the Republicans can take back the White House in 2012.  The next presidential election Republicans have a chance at winning is 2016.

People predicted in 2005 that if the GOP nominated McCain he would coast to Clinton '96 style landslide.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3018 on: November 20, 2009, 11:52:26 PM »

He's dropping fast!

But I thought he was going to unite the country?

If this keeps up, he may well prove himself to be a bigger divider than George W. Bush ever was.
You know that's kind of different when there was a propaganda machine(the Democrats have one too so don't throw the OMG BIASED LIBERAL CARD at me) geared up against him from the beginning and he didn't have the right kind of angry, populist rhetoric during a terrible recession. Obama would be a great uniter during peacetime but during a long recession, where there is much anger against the "elite" and the establishment he is definitely polarizing.

To be effective at undoing the recession the President will have to keep his wits. Anger will solve nothing. Sure, he can turn the full force of the legal system at corrupt figures who made the recession possible, but any recovery that we have will not depend upon demagogic attacks on finance.

Investment bankers and subprime lenders may not be our favored people, but if the cost of getting out of a recession and preventing a recession is to enrich investment bankers and subprime lenders, then guess what we must do. Sometimes the most tempting course of political action is the wrong one. Sometimes one must wait for the opportune moment.

... I am convinced that we Americans voted for Obama because he was more rational than the alternative. Just imagine how bad things could have gotten if we had elected the neurotic combination of McCain/Palin (McCain is not neurotic, so far as I can figure, and Palin may not be as crazy as we liberals are prone to think that she is, but she is enough of a loose cannon to muck things up badly; the neurotic situation would come from the technocratic President and a right-wing demagogue as VP).

Obama has gone after financial scammers and tax cheats -- but scammers and tax cheats have brought harm instead of prosperity to America. Dubya looked the other way, which is not so much conservatism as it is inattention. Whatever political risks there may be in the reform of health care have the potential offset of allowing America to become more competitive in the worldwide economy. One cost will be the need for a full-employment economy...  but health-care reform might end up creating more jobs and more opportunities for business.
      
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #3019 on: November 21, 2009, 01:40:56 AM »

The idea that Obama was going to end partisanship seems ridiculous in itself. I'm fairly confident that as of now, Obama will win re-election. It seems inevitable that whatever he does will attract hatred, even if the economy is able to recover. The Right has sprung into action, and Obama is beginning to have a fierce hatred that will come close to the feelings that the Doves felt back in 2003 & 2004. I think that this decade will be the paramount of polarization.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #3020 on: November 21, 2009, 12:55:54 PM »

He's dropping fast!

But I thought he was going to unite the country?

If this keeps up, he may well prove himself to be a bigger divider than George W. Bush ever was.

Perhaps, the cerebral pragmatist, who stands somewhere between modern liberalism and the "cult of neoliberalism" is proving too much for 'conservatives'
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3021 on: November 22, 2009, 02:41:23 AM »

Iowa: The Des Moines Register/Selzer Poll

Adults: 49% Approve, 44% Disapprove

Likely Voters: 46% Approve, 49% Disapprove

The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected telephone numbers. Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Responses were weighted by age to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on a subsample of 539 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20091121/NEWS/91121005/1001/Register-exclusive-Iowa-Poll-shows-Obama-approval-rating-below-50-percent

What will pbrower2a now do with IA ? Grin
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Alcon
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« Reply #3022 on: November 22, 2009, 02:45:12 AM »

Responses were weighted by age to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on a subsample of 539 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

what does that mean?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3023 on: November 22, 2009, 02:51:56 AM »

"A poll leaked by Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker to various news outlets shows that 63 percent of Hoosiers approve of the way Bayh is doing his job, while 31 percent disapprove.

This is based on polling in 20 competitive state legislative districts by Hamilton Campaigns. The poll was conducted between Oct. 29 and Nov. 2 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. The poll talked to 800 registered and considered likely voters in the competitive districts.

The poll also showed that 56 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of independents viewed Bayh favorably.

President Barack Obama, who carried Indiana last year, did not do as well in the poll. The president was viewed favorably by 48 percent of those asked, while 51 percent viewed him unfavorably."

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20091121/COLUMNISTS20/911220315/Notes+From+Washington

Considering that it is an internal poll and the fact that Indiana has about 100 House districts and about 50 Senate districts, we shouldn't include this poll into the map (only 20 districts polled).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3024 on: November 22, 2009, 03:26:48 AM »

Considering that it is an internal poll and the fact that Indiana has about 100 House districts and about 50 Senate districts, we shouldn't include this poll into the map (only 20 districts polled).

Plus it's favorability rather than job approval.  Though pbrower seems to be oblivious to that distinction....
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