The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2875 on: October 26, 2009, 07:49:55 PM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden

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Swing Voter
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« Reply #2876 on: October 26, 2009, 07:54:56 PM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2877 on: October 26, 2009, 08:14:15 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2009, 08:50:44 PM by Senator Tmthforu94 »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?
Approval ratings. Colorado is a more libertarian state, so probably isn't a big fan of Obama's policies. Many though are still giving Obama a chance there, since they voted for him heavily in 2008. Even in a lean Obama election, I think Colorado could go Republican.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2878 on: October 26, 2009, 08:31:50 PM »

Ohio is a libertarian state now? Christ almighty.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2879 on: October 26, 2009, 08:46:31 PM »

I don't pretend to be without bias. All that I can hope for is to be consistent, rational, relevant, and timely. My commentary should be obvious as such.

54% approval in Massachusetts when Obama is above 50% in Ohio? Not likely. Now if states politically similar to Massachusetts show similar results, then there could be a trend -- as I have suggested in response to recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee that look nearly even in approval and disapproval.   
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2880 on: October 26, 2009, 08:50:30 PM »

Ohio is a libertarian state now? Christ almighty.
Sorry, I meant Colorado.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2881 on: October 26, 2009, 08:56:40 PM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



I don't know whether you refer to a percentage or a margin, so a legend would be welcome.
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« Reply #2882 on: October 26, 2009, 08:57:22 PM »


That looks about right to me, except perhaps Florida.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2883 on: October 26, 2009, 08:57:24 PM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



I don't know whether you refer to a percentage or a margin, so a legend would be welcome.
The darker the color, the more confident I am with that prediction. 60% is the max.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2884 on: October 26, 2009, 09:54:24 PM »

My tentative prediction for 2012:



Huckabee win 10% or more
Huckabee win 5% - 9.9%
Huckabee win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more

Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%


I am not a robot. Maybe a robot would be easier to deal with than I.   I am looking at a combination of things:

1. the 2008 results

2. that the liberal tendency of young voters is likely to continue in 2012 with a tendency of new young voters to supplant statistically older, more conservative voters tending to drop out of the voting due to death and senescence -- an age effect.

So far that age effect would push "only" Missouri and Montana to Obama in 2012 while he keeps everything that he won in 2008 -- including his bare wins in Indiana, North Carolina, and NE-02. The Age Wave would not push Georgia or either of the Dakotas to Obama because the youth are split nearly 50-50 in states that Obama lost.

3. The appearance or disappearance of a Favorite Son effect  where it is most likely to have or have had an effect (obviously Arizona).

4. Ethnic shifts -- most notably the rapid increase of Hispanic voters in 2012 in the southwestern US.

#3 and #4 would be enough to flip Arizona -- but not Texas, which will be significantly closer. Such is the long-term trend relevant to 2012.

I ignore national tracking polls except as indicators of nationwide trends likely to appear in statewide polls.

Beyond that, I look at state polls... and I see recent trends for Obama in three states in which Obama did very badly in 2008. Those states in which Clinton could win but Obama didn't

I admit that for now Missouri is touchy... and I have no recent poll for Indiana. So?

Now what can't I predict with this model?

1. How effective or ineffective Obama will be as President.  That can absolutely throw every assumption that I have here, one way or the other.

2. How Obama will do against anyone other than Huckabee.

I have only hunches about Mitt Romney  (less polarization at the cost of Obama picking up a few states), Tim Pawlenty (we know little), and Sarah Palin (unqualified disaster).

Huckabee is easier to figure out against Obama because he is more likely to maintain the polarization of the American electorate as it was in 2008.


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Badger
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« Reply #2885 on: October 27, 2009, 07:36:00 AM »

Get used to it. Sometimes I think he is a robot, created by the DNC, to try and get people to think Obama is unbeatable in 2012, in the hopes that many Republicans won't even vote.

I don't understand why he is the one running this thread. I see a clear bias and he uses favorability instead of approval, I've noticed! Can't we find someone else to make the fancy little map?

Anyone can make the maps, no one else besides PBrower chooses to, though.

(To everyone): Then for the love of God quit bitching about his maps and make your own!
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Badger
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« Reply #2886 on: October 27, 2009, 07:52:49 AM »



The Massachusetts poll looks a bit fishy, but a poll is a poll unless the organization is suspect. Michigan? Not so strange.

He includes a pro-Obama outlier poll. The chorus swells: "Pbrower's an Obamabot hack" etc. etc.

He includes an anti-Obama outlier poll from Massachusetts here: Two pages follow of: "Pbrower's an Obamabot hack" etc. etc. etc. etc.

I'm not saying Pbrower's every decision on mapping has been correct, nor that people shouldn't call him on it if he does it again, but the constant chorus of hackery disconnected from what he's actually doing is getting downright annoying. (Or maybe it's still early for me and I'm just grumpy) ):-(

Regardless, he's the only one consistently updating an electoral map for this thread. If his methodology is so bad, someone else step up and persistently maintain your own map on the thread.

OK, rant off.
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change08
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« Reply #2887 on: October 27, 2009, 08:02:40 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.
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Vepres
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« Reply #2888 on: October 27, 2009, 09:59:45 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).
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Swing Voter
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« Reply #2889 on: October 27, 2009, 10:14:05 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).

Do you disagree that Ohio has a natural Republican lean?
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Vepres
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« Reply #2890 on: October 27, 2009, 10:26:39 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).

Do you disagree that Ohio has a natural Republican lean?

I think it has a 1%-2% Republican lean, but that is hardly significant statistically.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2891 on: October 27, 2009, 10:27:11 AM »

Ohio was more Republican than the national average in 2008, so it may be safe to say that it leans more culturally towards the Republican Party today than it does the Democratic Party.
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Vepres
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« Reply #2892 on: October 27, 2009, 10:29:59 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).

Do you disagree that Ohio has a natural Republican lean?

I think it has a 1%-2% Republican lean, but that is hardly significant statistically.

But to answer your point, it is definitely more republican culturally than Colorado, which tends to have a more libertarian state GOP.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2893 on: October 27, 2009, 11:14:30 AM »

If I have a suspect poll, then tell me. I don't want a poll from a special interest, a push poll, or one from a suspect organization (some entity that makes up its own polls).  So you tell me when I include a poll from a labor union or a "gun-rights" group.

There will be suspect results -- outliers like the 54% approval in Massachusetts (We all know what Massachusetts is like; if it doesn't go for the Democratic nominee by a wide margin, then the Democratic nominee will lose) or a fishy one of 60% in Texas a few months ago (if the Democratic nominee is even within 10% in Texas these days, then the Republican nominee is in deep trouble).

Outliers tend to disappear -- or else show trends. The mid-month poll that showed Obama close in Tennessee looked like an outlier until I saw polls similar in range in Kentucky and Louisiana, states that generally move with Tennessee. Obama was absolutely clobbered in those states in 2008 even though Clinton won both states in 1992 and 1996. But what happens if he convinces people in those states that he is not the scary figure that they thought he was? Landslide 2012 as Obama wins states that unselectively vote for Democratic nominees or do so most of the time, the usual and reasonable swing states, and the Clinton-but-not-Obama states of 2008. Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia comprise 34 electoral votes, which is about like winning Texas.

Now what of the other side? Suppose that  Rasmussen comes out with a poll that reads like this:


Approvals, Barack Obama:

California  47% approve, 51% disapprove

(note that this is a fictional poll)

It could be an outlier. But if you see others like this in California, and other unflattering polls in unexpected places, then  Obama's popularity may be fading in a place that he has usually taken for granted because of its demographics and political culture.  (California's economy is in very poor condition). Maybe there are solutions "out there" that right-leaning politicians have yet to find, and should they find them those right-wing politicians might win in 2012.

 

 





 
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2894 on: October 27, 2009, 03:15:32 PM »

Ohio was more Republican than the national average in 2008, so it may be safe to say that it leans more culturally towards the Republican Party today than it does the Democratic Party.

Right, but in 2004, the state was on par with the election results from the nation. In fact, it might have been SLIGHTLY more Democratic IIRC.

It really depends on the candidate. If a Clinton type Democrat is running, it will probably lean Democrat by 1-2%. If there's a stong Republican running, then it will lean slightly Republican.
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Badger
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« Reply #2895 on: October 27, 2009, 04:08:36 PM »

Ohio was more Republican than the national average in 2008, so it may be safe to say that it leans more culturally towards the Republican Party today than it does the Democratic Party.

Right, but in 2004, the state was on par with the election results from the nation. In fact, it might have been SLIGHTLY more Democratic IIRC.

It really depends on the candidate. If a Clinton type Democrat is running, it will probably lean Democrat by 1-2%. If there's a stong Republican running, then it will lean slightly Republican.

Ohio was, in fact, slightly more Democratic voting than the country---by less than 0.4%. Other than LBJ's 64 landslide it was the only time this century Ohio leaned further from the GOP than the national vote (including both of Clinton's wins). The 2004 aberration isn't surprising considering Ohio was at the time dead last in job creation and a host of other economic indicators.

Ohio's GOP lean has generally run about 1-4 points. Obama's Ohio margin of victory running approx 2.7% behind his national margin was fairly average in this respect.
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« Reply #2896 on: October 28, 2009, 10:55:00 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2009, 10:58:08 AM by MagneticFree »

If I have a suspect poll, then tell me. I don't want a poll from a special interest, a push poll, or one from a suspect organization (some entity that makes up its own polls).  So you tell me when I include a poll from a labor union or a "gun-rights" group.

There will be suspect results -- outliers like the 54% approval in Massachusetts (We all know what Massachusetts is like; if it doesn't go for the Democratic nominee by a wide margin, then the Democratic nominee will lose) or a fishy one of 60% in Texas a few months ago (if the Democratic nominee is even within 10% in Texas these days, then the Republican nominee is in deep trouble).

Outliers tend to disappear -- or else show trends. The mid-month poll that showed Obama close in Tennessee looked like an outlier until I saw polls similar in range in Kentucky and Louisiana, states that generally move with Tennessee. Obama was absolutely clobbered in those states in 2008 even though Clinton won both states in 1992 and 1996. But what happens if he convinces people in those states that he is not the scary figure that they thought he was? Landslide 2012 as Obama wins states that unselectively vote for Democratic nominees or do so most of the time, the usual and reasonable swing states, and the Clinton-but-not-Obama states of 2008. Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia comprise 34 electoral votes, which is about like winning Texas.

Now what of the other side? Suppose that  Rasmussen comes out with a poll that reads like this:


Approvals, Barack Obama:

California  47% approve, 51% disapprove

(note that this is a fictional poll)

It could be an outlier. But if you see others like this in California, and other unflattering polls in unexpected places, then  Obama's popularity may be fading in a place that he has usually taken for granted because of its demographics and political culture.  (California's economy is in very poor condition). Maybe there are solutions "out there" that right-leaning politicians have yet to find, and should they find them those right-wing politicians might win in 2012.


  
If that was the case, then CA would be tossup and the rest is what I came up with.
DEM: 210
REP: 273
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Rowan
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« Reply #2897 on: October 31, 2009, 09:14:53 AM »

SurveyUSA has some of their monthly tracking numbers out:

Alabama: 39/58
California: 61/35
Iowa: 46/48
Kansas: 41/56
Kentucky: 46/51
Missouri: 48/47
New York: 61/36
Oregon: 50/45
Virginia: 48/49
Washington: 55/39
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2898 on: October 31, 2009, 11:32:35 AM »

SurveyUSA has some of their monthly tracking numbers out:

Alabama: 39/58
California: 61/35
Iowa: 46/48
Kansas: 41/56
Kentucky: 46/51
Missouri: 48/47
New York: 61/36
Oregon: 50/45
Virginia: 48/49
Washington: 55/39




Approval higher in Missouri than in Iowa in one poll? That's strange.  The second near-even poll in Kentucky this month, along with similar polls in Louisiana and Tennessee and a positive poll in Missouri suggest that President Obama is doing better in the "Clinton-but-not-Obama, Obama-losing-big"   states of 2008. Because of the similarity of political culture between those states and Arkansas, Huckabee would win them (this does not include Missouri) in 2012, but I now have severe questions of whether Romney or Pawlenty could win them.
   
Iowa and Virginia show averages with polls from earlier in this month.  One day later with the poll and both states would appear canary-yellow. 

The poll for Oklahoma is getting old, but I'm not going to drop it in November; no way is Obama close there.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2899 on: October 31, 2009, 01:03:55 PM »

Those are not the real SurveyUSA numbers, pbrower. I posted them.

Nope, Rowan's right. You posted the September numbers ...
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