The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Eraserhead]

I can't wait until 2012 when that damn Socialist gets voted out of office. His approvals will be 20% on election day. Starting on Jan 20, 2013, Ron Paul will bring Capitalism back to America.

oh hellz yeah!

[Sam Spade]

Obama's approval seems to stay stable at his Election Day levels (53%). During the town hall meetings and all the outrage over healthcare, his approval dropped to 50%, but he quickly rebounded.

A bounce at 50% after going through the 53% level is not terribly surprising.  In fact, I quite expected it (references past posts).

Numbers-wise, this bounce should extend into the mid-50s or so, maybe upper 50s over the next few months, before turning down again.

If the bounce to 53% is all there is, then the odds go up quite exponentially that his approvals will be above disapprovals by 2010 elections (excluding major outside unexpected events, of course).

[zclark1994]

I can't wait until 2012 when that damn Socialist gets voted out of office. His approvals will be 20% on election day. Starting on Jan 20, 2013, Ron Paul will bring Capitalism back to America.

Haha, lol, Ron paul won't ever win.  He won't get on the Republican ticket or the democrat ticket.

[pbrower2a]

I can't wait until 2012 when that damn Socialist gets voted out of office. His approvals will be 20% on election day. Starting on Jan 20, 2013, Ron Paul will bring Capitalism back to America.

The bad socialism began when George W. Bush was President -- when his cronies in Big Business got to him and told him that if the economy didn't recover, he might be in almost as deep trouble as they in the event of a socialist revolution as they would be.

I estimate that we were five years away from a Red Revolution in the autumn of 2008 -- and the "republic" might have a hammer-and-sickle emblem attached to it as well as a proclivity to put tycoons, executives, and their political enablers between a firing squad and a wall. "Red" would mean Bolshevik and bloody -- and not the GOP. We may have gone from five years away from such a revolution to ten years away -- significant progress, of course.

The ideal will be that the bailed-out entities succeed and can give back the bailout funds to an Administration that uses them to pay down the national debt. Such would be a conservative dream -- and a means of ensuring a 40-state landslide for the President of the time. We now have no viable alternative; we must wait for the results. 

The solution for our economic mess is of course more capitalism -- not less. That means small businesses that can't buy access to lobbyists, can't buy off politicians, and can't influence the political process.  Such capitalism appears when the freefall is over. Bloated enterprises staffed with cruel executives and political operatives capable of convincing right-wing politicians that the key to economic growth is letting those companies corner markets and treat people badly are bad capitalism. We are better off with competing businesses; banking worked better when it was a veritable cottage industry. 

[Vepres]

One has to wonder if Obama's approvals wouldn't be lower if the "frontrunners" for 2012 weren't so atrocious.

[pbrower2a]

One has to wonder if Obama's approvals wouldn't be lower if the "frontrunners" for 2012 weren't so atrocious.

A possible explanation.

Is the talent in the GOP that weak?

Unless Obama fails catastrophically as President (a legislative failure on health care reform is not such a failure), he is unlikely to be defeated in 2012.

It's going to take a new Ronald Reagan -- some charismatic candidate who can not only exude confidence, state his case clearly, make a "conservative" agenda seem moderate, and cut into Democratic support in the so-called Blue Firewall.

That will be tough. The political polarization in 2008 will not vanish of its own accord.

[Mr.Phips]

I actually think it would be better for Democrats to just let Obama lose in 2012. 

[5280]

I actually think it would be better for Democrats to just let Obama lose in 2012. 

Why do you say that? Democrats want him to win obviously.  They worship the guy like he's god or something.

[5280]

One has to wonder if Obama's approvals wouldn't be lower if the "frontrunners" for 2012 weren't so atrocious.

A possible explanation.

Is the talent in the GOP that weak?

Unless Obama fails catastrophically as President (a legislative failure on health care reform is not such a failure), he is unlikely to be defeated in 2012.

It's going to take a new Ronald Reagan -- some charismatic candidate who can not only exude confidence, state his case clearly, make a "conservative" agenda seem moderate, and cut into Democratic support in the so-called Blue Firewall.

That will be tough. The political polarization in 2008 will not vanish of its own accord.

You sir are an Obama leech.

[Rowan]

Arizona(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 56%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_governor_race_september_27_2009

[Alcon]

Arizona(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 56%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_governor_race_september_27_2009

Likely 2010 voters wtf?

[Mechaman]

I actually think it would be better for Democrats to just let Obama lose in 2012. 

Why do you say that? Democrats want him to win obviously.  They worship the guy like he's god or something.

[pbrower2a]

Averaging Arizona:



I still think that as Arizonans recognize that John McCain won't be the GOP nominee for President  they won't be so supportive of "Generic Republican".

[Tender Branson]

Arizona (Rocky Mountain Poll/Behavior Research Center)

47% Excellent/Good
53% Fair/Poor

The poll was conducted among 800 Arizonans (629 were registered voters) from Sept. 9-18. The results were released Sept. 28. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

http://azcapitoltimes.com/azpolicywonk/2009/09/28/poll-mccain-obama-kyl-have-similar-approval-ratings-in-az/

[pbrower2a]

http://azcapitoltimes.com/azpolicywonk/2009/09/28/poll-mccain-obama-kyl-have-similar-approval-ratings-in-az/

For calibration of Arizona, a contrast between President Barack Obama and the two US Senators from Arizona:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The two GOP Senators seem no different in public assessment of their effectiveness and popularity than President Obama. This may indicate that the mudflinging efforts of the Right, which have effectively cut at the assessment of Barack Obama have done little to shore up the assessment of Republican politicians. Those efforts have not succeeded in building support for Republican politicians. Political change to the benefit of Republicans will absolutely depend upon the creation of a positive image of Republican politicians.

I consider Senator Jon Kyl a plausible nominee for Vice-President of the United States in 2012.  He would probably enough to keep Arizona from swinging D in 2012.

[Zarn]

Given:

1. McCain is not popular in Arizona (and he isn't)
2. McCain can win Arizona over Obama (and he did)

Conclusion: A "generic," well-liked enough Republican can win Arizona without much hassle.

[Rowan]

Given:

1. McCain is not popular in Arizona (and he isn't)
2. McCain can win Arizona over Obama (and he did)

Conclusion: A "generic," well-liked enough Republican can win Arizona without much hassle.

Well, Rasmussen's poll today has McCain at a 56-43 approval rating...

[pbrower2a]

Given:

1. McCain is not popular in Arizona (and he isn't)
2. McCain can win Arizona over Obama (and he did)

Conclusion: A "generic," well-liked enough Republican can win Arizona without much hassle.

Given:

1. Senator Jon Kyl (R, AZ)is less well-regarded in Arizona than is Barack Obama
2. Senator Jon Kyl is a fair approximation of "Generic Republican"
3. The Favorite Son effect is real and good for about 10% for the Presidency and 5% for the Vice-Presidency

Conclusion:

Jon Kyl would probably keep Arizona from voting for Obama in 2012 as a GOP nominee for either President or Vice-President.

Other Republicans would have trouble in Arizona.

The GOP will be in deep trouble in America on the whole if it barely wins a Republican-leaning state. let alone loses it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I consider Senator Jon Kyl a plausible nominee for Vice-President of the United States in 2012.  He would probably enough to keep Arizona from swinging D in 2012.

LOL, you're ridiculous.

In any case, if you're playing the pick-a-vice-president-to-win-a-state game, Arizona is not the sorrt of state you should be going after.  Try a genuine toss up or slight-D state like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, or New Hampshire instead.

Kyl is a nobody garbage pick that would be laughed at for its incomprehensibility.

If Republicans can't win Arizona, they've already lost the election, so all else is academic.  McCain could have firewalled North Carolina or Indiana in 2008, but what difference would it have made?  Making the defeat look less brutal?

[Tender Branson]

New Rasmussen Arkansas numbers to be released later today at 5pm.

[Eraserhead]

New Rasmussen Arkansas numbers to be released later today at 5pm.

I'm sure Obama is kicking ass and taking names over there! Woot!

[Zarn]

Given:

1. McCain is not popular in Arizona (and he isn't)
2. McCain can win Arizona over Obama (and he did)

Conclusion: A "generic," well-liked enough Republican can win Arizona without much hassle.

Given:

1. Senator Jon Kyl (R, AZ)is less well-regarded in Arizona than is Barack Obama
2. Senator Jon Kyl is a fair approximation of "Generic Republican"
3. The Favorite Son effect is real and good for about 10% for the Presidency and 5% for the Vice-Presidency

Conclusion:

Jon Kyl would probably keep Arizona from voting for Obama in 2012 as a GOP nominee for either President or Vice-President.

Other Republicans would have trouble in Arizona.

The GOP will be in deep trouble in America on the whole if it barely wins a Republican-leaning state. let alone loses it.

"Favored Son" doesn't help when the guy is not that popular, overall. It doesn't help much at all with the VP slot.

Legit pollsters are giving Obama negative approvals in AZ.

[Democratic Hawk]

I actually think it would be better for Democrats to just let Obama lose in 2012. 

Obama isn't the problem - it's congressional Democrats. He has allowed them to propose too much of his agenda and many feel that has caused his approvals to slip among Independents

The problem with the likes of Pelosi, Waxman, Frank and Rangel is they think they can draft legislation as if the United States were as blue as their districts

Obama, and congressional Democrats, should be building on the ideological coalition that elected him and them - and yes that includes conservatives. The base (52.78%) that elected Obama was liberal 19.58%; moderate 26.40% and conservative 6.80%. And it was enough support from conservatives that made all the difference between Obama winning, and losing, states like North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Indiana (9 electoral votes), Florida (27 electoral votes) and Ohio (20 electoral votes)

Democrats need to be rational and pragmatic moving forward

[pbrower2a]

I consider Senator Jon Kyl a plausible nominee for Vice-President of the United States in 2012.  He would probably enough to keep Arizona from swinging D in 2012.

LOL, you're ridiculous.

In any case, if you're playing the pick-a-vice-president-to-win-a-state game, Arizona is not the sorrt of state you should be going after.  Try a genuine toss up or slight-D state like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, or New Hampshire instead.

Kyl is a nobody garbage pick that would be laughed at for its incomprehensibility.

If Republicans can't win Arizona, they've already lost the election, so all else is academic.  McCain could have firewalled North Carolina or Indiana in 2008, but what difference would it have made?  Making the defeat look less brutal?

GOP talent in 2012 is thin. I just wanted someone to discuss Jon Kyl. Could he be chosen for ideological coherence with one of the major figures?

Genuine tossups in a 50-50 election are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  Pennsylvania is the sort of State that the GOP wins to get 320 EV, and Michigan is about as far from being a tossup in a 50-50 election as is Texas in a 50-50 election.

A Southern right-winger has no chance of cutting into the Blue Firewall.

[CJK]

Arkansas:

Approve: 37%

Disapprove: 62%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_2010_arkansas_senate_race_september_28_2009