The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2475 on: September 17, 2009, 03:29:17 PM »

FOX News:

54% Approve
39% Disapprove

Polling was conducted by telephone September 15-16, 2009, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091709_poll.pdf
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2476 on: September 17, 2009, 03:29:51 PM »

Updated with Virginia...



If the election was today, I would predict this as the map...

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change08
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« Reply #2477 on: September 17, 2009, 03:41:36 PM »

FOX News:

54% Approve
39% Disapprove

Polling was conducted by telephone September 15-16, 2009, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091709_poll.pdf

Totally haackery for the Dems!!! It's unbelievable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2478 on: September 17, 2009, 04:18:23 PM »



... I promise: unless Indiana or NE-02 is polled by September 31, it goes "orange". Six months is clearly outdated.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2479 on: September 17, 2009, 04:43:36 PM »

... I promise: unless Indiana or NE-02 is polled by September 31, it goes "orange". Six months is clearly outdated.

I would make the change on Sept. 30th.  Usually, nothing much of anything happens in the world on Sept. 31st.  Tongue
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Vepres
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« Reply #2480 on: September 17, 2009, 05:37:21 PM »

GJ with the maps pbrower!

Remember, higher turnout doesn't necessarily benefit Democrats, but those NJ numbers don't hold much weight.

The mountain west is interesting. Obama was very strong there for a Democrat in November, but they seem to not be happy about the gov't spending. Could we see Bennet and Reid ousted in 2010? That seems like a greater possibility every day.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2481 on: September 17, 2009, 05:52:13 PM »

Harry Reid is in deep political trouble; he is an ideologue in a moderate state. It could simply that he has passed the "sell-by" date.

Of course, he's not in as bad shape as the Republican Senator from Nevada, reasons having nothing to do with ideology.

Strange things can happen.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #2482 on: September 17, 2009, 06:02:50 PM »

Harry Reid is in deep political trouble; he is an ideologue in a moderate state. It could simply that he has passed the "sell-by" date.

Of course, he's not in as bad shape as the Republican Senator from Nevada, reasons having nothing to do with ideology.

Strange things can happen.


Ensign lives in Whorevada the scandal may have made him Safe for all we know.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2483 on: September 18, 2009, 07:15:12 AM »

Maine(KOS)

Favorable 68%
Unfavorable 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376

LOL Kos, he doesn't he try to hide his bias(or just awfulness).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2484 on: September 18, 2009, 08:49:58 AM »

68% allows me to put a beautiful pine-green shade on a pine-rich state (Maine), even if the poll is from the Daily Kos:



... I promise: unless Indiana or NE-02 is polled by September  31 October 1, the relevant bailiwicks go "orange". Six months is clearly outdated.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2485 on: September 18, 2009, 10:26:29 AM »

Nate Silver has an interesting statement on whether 50% approval is the "magic" threshold for winning re-election:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/50-percent-is-not-magic-number.html

FiveThirtyEight.com has a graphics-rich page that I can't quite duplicate, so here is a synopsis:

A President with an approval rating of 44% has roughly a fifty-fifty chance of winning re-election nationwide.  With a 50% approval rating his chance of winning re-election is about 90%. Who runs against the President matters greatly; even with a 60% approval rating in Utah, Obama would lose to Romney, and much the same holds true against Huckabee in Arkansas.

An example: in 2004, George W. Bush's last approval rating according to the Gallup Poll was 48% -- and he won barely. Another: Gerald Ford's last approval rating was 45%, and he lost -- barely.  The elder Bush had a 34% approval rating (even if he was a far better President than his son) and lost badly.  Clinton, Nixon, Reagan, Eisenhower, and Reagan had approval ratings from 54% to 74% -- and won decisively. Truman had an approval rating of 39% -- and still won (although he was on a roller-coaster, so to speak).

......

President Obama of course has the responsibility to keep his approval rating up, and he can do much of it himself. Much of it will come from elsewhere, like whether the economy does reasonably well (there won't be any speculative boom) and whether there will be no foreign-policy disasters (that may be up to Kim Jong-il and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad). To have a chance against a President with a 47% approval rating, the Republicans will have to run someone effective at getting his point across. John Kerry in 2004 demonstrated how a weakened challenger can assure a bare win for an incumbent President with sub-50% support.   
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Vepres
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« Reply #2486 on: September 18, 2009, 10:59:56 AM »

Harry Reid is in deep political trouble; he is an ideologue in a moderate state. It could simply that he has passed the "sell-by" date.

Of course, he's not in as bad shape as the Republican Senator from Nevada, reasons having nothing to do with ideology.

Strange things can happen.


Indeed, though Ensign has the benefit of time.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2487 on: September 18, 2009, 11:41:04 AM »

Maine(KOS)

Favorable 68%
Unfavorable 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376

LOL Kos, he doesn't he try to hide his bias(or just awfulness).
This poll is one that just isn't believable, like the Texas one in March that had Obama at 67% approval. Assuming 100% of Democrats and Independants favored Obama, still, at least 17% of Republicans would have to approve of him too.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2488 on: September 18, 2009, 11:51:45 AM »

Maine(KOS)

Favorable 68%
Unfavorable 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376

LOL Kos, he doesn't he try to hide his bias(or just awfulness).
This poll is one that just isn't believable, like the Texas one in March that had Obama at 67% approval. Assuming 100% of Democrats and Independants favored Obama, still, at least 17% of Republicans would have to approve of him too.

Here's the split:

                           FAV             UNFAV     NO OPINION
ALL                           68              23             9
MEN                           63               29                   8
WOMEN                   73              17                 10
DEMOCRATS           89                5                   6
REPUBLICANS           35              54           11
INDEPENDENTS   74              17                   9
18-29                   72              18                 10
30-44                   71              20                   9
45-59                   65              26                   9
60+                           62              30                   8

Maine is not a normal state; it is one of the most liberal in America, the sort that goes for a Republican nominee for President only  in a 40+ state landslide. 
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2489 on: September 18, 2009, 11:56:29 AM »

I can't believe anyone would try to justify that poll. No way does he have a 68% favorable in Maine unless they just like him personally. 
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2490 on: September 18, 2009, 11:57:04 AM »

Maine(KOS)

Favorable 68%
Unfavorable 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376

LOL Kos, he doesn't he try to hide his bias(or just awfulness).
This poll is one that just isn't believable, like the Texas one in March that had Obama at 67% approval. Assuming 100% of Democrats and Independants favored Obama, still, at least 17% of Republicans would have to approve of him too.

Here's the split:

                           FAV             UNFAV     NO OPINION
ALL                           68              23             9
MEN                           63               29                   8
WOMEN                   73              17                 10
DEMOCRATS           89                5                   6
REPUBLICANS           35              54           11
INDEPENDENTS   74              17                   9
18-29                   72              18                 10
30-44                   71              20                   9
45-59                   65              26                   9
60+                           62              30                   8

Maine is not a normal state; it is one of the most liberal in America, the sort that goes for a Republican nominee for President only  in a 40+ state landslide. 
Early October it appeared to be close. If the election had been the beginning of October, McCain probably would have won a congressional district. It was also close in 2004. One poll actually had Bush ahead
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Rowan
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« Reply #2491 on: September 18, 2009, 12:54:16 PM »

Obama got 58% in ME. It is hardly one of the "most liberal" states in the country(also evidenced by their opposition to same-sex marriage in the same poll). To think he is 10 points above what he got in 08 is just absurd.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2492 on: September 18, 2009, 12:57:59 PM »

Obama got 58% in ME. It is hardly one of the "most liberal" states in the country(also evidenced by their opposition to same-sex marriage in the same poll). To think he is 10 points above what he got in 08 is just absurd.

Now you are mixing up an election with favorables ...

Maybe Mainers just like the person Barack Obama, what they think about his job is a completely different story ...
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #2493 on: September 18, 2009, 01:01:14 PM »

Obama got 58% in ME. It is hardly one of the "most liberal" states in the country(also evidenced by their opposition to same-sex marriage in the same poll). To think he is 10 points above what he got in 08 is just absurd.

Now you are mixing up an election with favorables ...

Maybe Mainers just like the person Barack Obama, what they think about his job is a completely different story ...

Eh. I still doubt 68% of Maineians really like him and only 23% don't like him.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2494 on: September 18, 2009, 01:48:41 PM »

Obama got 58% in ME. It is hardly one of the "most liberal" states in the country(also evidenced by their opposition to same-sex marriage in the same poll). To think he is 10 points above what he got in 08 is just absurd.

Now you are mixing up an election with favorables ...

Maybe Mainers just like the person Barack Obama, what they think about his job is a completely different story ...

My point... This isn't approvals, rather favorability, but it's not a shock that it only took p2bower an hour to bump Maine up to 70% on his map, yet he still refuses to add New Jersey or make NE-02 and the like orange.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #2495 on: September 18, 2009, 03:05:08 PM »

Obama's approval right now is around 50 % !!!!

Oh my start to panic! That's about the approval numbers Reagan, Clinton, and Nixon had in September their first year in office. Clearly Obama doesn't have a shot at being re-elected. Roll Eyes

Oh and asuming he's going to win no matter what is equally stupid. And you can't discredit a poll just cause it doesn't agree with you. If that New Jersey poll had shown big approval for him, I'm sure it would have counted.







 
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Zarn
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« Reply #2496 on: September 18, 2009, 03:11:56 PM »

If you want maps, they you will have to make your own, instead of relying on the unreliable.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2497 on: September 18, 2009, 03:38:00 PM »

I don't agree with prbrowers logic, but instead of getting mad about it, why not just make your own tracking map?

The Maine poll looks like an outlier, and so does the New Jersey one.

If Obama is at 50% nationwide, his approval will be positive in New Jersey. Obama isn't doing well among independents or Republicans, yet his favorables in Maine is 74% among independents and 35% among Republicans. Doesn't make sense.

Just exercise some common sense people, that's all I'm saying.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2498 on: September 18, 2009, 04:24:42 PM »



If the election was today, I would predict this as the map...




.... lol
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2499 on: September 18, 2009, 04:36:56 PM »

Explain. I basically went off polling and 2008 results.
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