The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1104490 times)
RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #2425 on: September 16, 2009, 12:40:50 PM »

I wonder if pbrower2a will color New Hampshire green or yellow.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #2426 on: September 16, 2009, 12:41:37 PM »

Is that just likely voters in this falls election? it would seem very odd to me if obama had a lower approval rating in NJ than CO.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2427 on: September 16, 2009, 12:53:22 PM »

Is that just likely voters in this falls election? it would seem very odd to me if obama had a lower approval rating in NJ than CO.

2009 Likely Voters. PPP said that the 2008 electorate would extrapolate to a 51/43 approval.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2428 on: September 16, 2009, 12:53:48 PM »

Make NJ yellow.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2429 on: September 16, 2009, 12:59:33 PM »


Why would you use 2009 LV's instead of 2008 electorate?  I can see an argument for 2008 electorate measure not being included on the map, but why use the number from an election that's obviously going to be less reflective of any Presidential electorate?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2430 on: September 16, 2009, 01:02:01 PM »

Ohio (Quinnipiac University)Sad

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

From September 10 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,074 Ohio registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 375 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points and 421 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1372
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Rowan
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« Reply #2431 on: September 16, 2009, 01:04:42 PM »


Why would you use 2009 LV's instead of 2008 electorate?  I can see an argument for 2008 electorate measure not being included on the map, but why use the number from an election that's obviously going to be less reflective of any Presidential electorate?

Because you can't cherry pick the numbers. NH and CO are both 2010 likely voters, should those not be included either?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2432 on: September 16, 2009, 01:20:02 PM »

I wonder if pbrower2a will color New Hampshire green or yellow.

It will remain green. He still refuses to acknowledge that NE-02 is probably an outdated poll, believing that a district that was 49-49 on election day 2008 would still give Obama over 50% approvals.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2433 on: September 16, 2009, 01:46:42 PM »

New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal / Research & Polling Inc.)Sad

53% Approve
37% Disapprove

Sept. 8-10, 402 registered voters, 5% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nm_approval_ratings_albuquerqu.php

Interesting. In November New Mexico was advantage Democrat, now it seems to be at about the national level.

NM polling = crapshoot

I just want to make a logical point here that people seem to be missing with regards to state polls:

Excluding turnout issues and what not - once Obama's approval got/gets under his 2008 number of 53% (and probably even before that), we should probably expect the greatest reversals in the states where he most strongly outperformed Kerry.  That 5% or so of voters are almost undoubtedly his weakest supporters and would probably be the quickest to jump off the approval bandwagon within his coalition.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2434 on: September 16, 2009, 02:43:36 PM »

CO, NH, NM, OH, VA updates




The New Jersey poll relates to a gubernatorial race in 2010.  NH is a 50-50 tie; a lesser tie (let us say 49-49) would be white.

The positive ratings in Ohio and Virginia suggest that Obama would win. The GOP absolutely can't afford to lose either state again in the 2012 election.

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Devilman88
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« Reply #2435 on: September 16, 2009, 02:57:44 PM »

NJ should be yellow!!
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Rowan
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« Reply #2436 on: September 16, 2009, 02:59:54 PM »

You're an idiot. The CO, NH, and VA numbers were all included in election polls too. Be honest, you are not including NJ because you don't like what it shows.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2437 on: September 16, 2009, 03:08:51 PM »

You're an idiot. The CO, NH, and VA numbers were all included in election polls too. Be honest, you are not including NJ because you don't like what it shows.

I don't cover gubernatorial or senatorial races in this thread. "Corzine is behind" is not my concern here.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2438 on: September 16, 2009, 03:12:29 PM »

You're an idiot. The CO, NH, and VA numbers were all included in election polls too. Be honest, you are not including NJ because you don't like what it shows.

I don't cover gubernatorial or senatorial races in this thread. "Corzine is behind" is not my concern here.

What are you even talking about? I am talking about OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING. It's like talking to a freaking wall. How can you possibly justify putting the recent CO, NH, and VA polls on the map but not the NJ one?
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #2439 on: September 16, 2009, 03:46:25 PM »

Ohio (Quinnipiac University)Sad

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

Very surprising, but good.  New Jersey is also incredibly odd; any explanations?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2440 on: September 16, 2009, 03:52:45 PM »

*Sigh*
Do you even read what it says, pbrower???

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_916.pdf


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CJK
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« Reply #2441 on: September 16, 2009, 05:24:43 PM »

Ohio (Quinnipiac University)Sad

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

Very surprising, but good.  New Jersey is also incredibly odd; any explanations?

Ohio: measuring the temporary health care speech bounce.

New Jersey: Likely voters 2009 are 48-46 Obama over McCain when it was 57-41 in November.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2442 on: September 16, 2009, 06:07:22 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2009, 07:23:31 PM by pbrower2a »

Quote:

Barack Obamaís approval rating among likely voters for this fallís
Gubernatorial election
has dropped to just 45%, with 48% disapproving of him.
Those numbers are down a good bit from PPPís last survey of the state in July, which
found his approval at 53/39. While Obama is steady with Democrats he has dropped a
good deal with both Republicans and independents. Among GOP voters his approval has
dropped from 20% to 12%. With unaffiliated ones itís an even steeper decline from 48%
to 36%.


Note the correction:

"Likely voters in a midterm election (2010) an odd-year election" means something very different from likely voters in a Presidential contest. That is why I cannot accept this polling result.

Because I had a bug in Adobe Reader I was unable to read the PDF until a few minutes ago.

MidtermOdd-year elections are very different from Presidential and even midterm elections; they have far lesser participation, and such elections tend to be more Republican than those in Presidential years.

No question: Corzine is in big trouble politically.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2443 on: September 16, 2009, 06:16:10 PM »

Then all of your polls are worthless. Almost EVERY SINGLE poll of Obama's approval, accompanies either a gubernatorial or senatorial poll.

So I ask you again, for the fourth freaking time, what is the difference between the OH, CO, and VA poll's and the NJ poll?

It's like talking to a freaking braindead person.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2444 on: September 16, 2009, 06:17:48 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2009, 06:44:38 PM by Mr. Morden »

"Likely voters in a midterm election (2010)" means something very different from likely voters in a Presidential contest. That is why I cannot accept this polling result.

You mean 2009.  The NJ gov race is this year.

You include other polls of likely voters for 2010 midterms.  These polls are headlined "Colorado Senate" and "New Hampshire Senate":

link

link

so they're for the 2010 midterms, and they poll "likely voters".  They are polling likely voters for next year's midterms, so should you exclude them as well?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2445 on: September 16, 2009, 06:40:22 PM »

I would just give up on the whole map thing. It's fairly pointless at this point anyway.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2446 on: September 16, 2009, 06:49:09 PM »

Quote:

Barack Obamaís approval rating among likely voters for this fallís
Gubernatorial election
has dropped to just 45%, with 48% disapproving of him.
Those numbers are down a good bit from PPPís last survey of the state in July, which
found his approval at 53/39. While Obama is steady with Democrats he has dropped a
good deal with both Republicans and independents. Among GOP voters his approval has
dropped from 20% to 12%. With unaffiliated ones itís an even steeper decline from 48%
to 36%.


"Likely voters in a midterm election (2010)" means something very different from likely voters in a Presidential contest. That is why I cannot accept this polling result.

Because I had a bug in Adobe Reader I was unable to read the PDF until a few minutes ago.

Midterm elections are very different from Presidential elections; they have far lesser participation, and such elections tend to be more Republican than those in Presidential years.
wtf? Polls include Senate races all the time, and you have no problem including them. Your problem with this poll is it will turn New Jersey yellow. You would have accepted this poll if Obama was doing good in NJ.
Please quit making maps, and let someone else do it who isn't a hack for either side.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2447 on: September 16, 2009, 07:03:08 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2009, 07:26:28 PM by Senator Tmthforu94 »

I don't know whats with all the letters, so I'm changing it back to numbers.
I will not be picking and choosing which polls to put on.

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Smid
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« Reply #2448 on: September 16, 2009, 07:17:46 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2009, 07:20:27 PM by Smid »

I don't know whats with all the letters, so I'm changing it back to numbers.
I will not be picking and choosing which polls to put on.



When making the map, tick off the box that shows Congressional Districts - since most of the polls for either Nebraska or Maine are going to be state-wide anyway... And if we're having Green >30% for >50% ties, we should have Yellow >30% for <50% ties.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2449 on: September 16, 2009, 07:27:08 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2009, 07:29:00 PM by Senator Tmthforu94 »

When making the map, tick off the box that shows Congressional Districts - since most of the polls for either Nebraska or Maine are going to be state-wide anyway... And if we're having Green >30% for >50% ties, we should have Yellow >30% for <50% ties.
There. I tried accommodating all of your suggestion. A tie is now tan.
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