The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Rowan
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« Reply #2350 on: September 10, 2009, 04:36:25 PM »

Colorado(Rasmussen)

Approve 51%
Disapprove 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/toplines/toplines_2010_colorado_senate_september_9_2009
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Nhoj
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« Reply #2351 on: September 10, 2009, 04:52:32 PM »

Thats better than ppp's last poll isnt it? Though, ppp i think had higher undecideds so they might actually be about the same.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2352 on: September 10, 2009, 06:04:29 PM »

Colorado speaks!



Translated into a likely electoral result:

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5280
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« Reply #2353 on: September 10, 2009, 08:39:51 PM »

Colorado speaks!



Translated into a likely electoral result:


Modified CO to tossup. You can't predit anything yet, 3 years to go.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2354 on: September 11, 2009, 12:16:57 AM »

California (PPIC)Sad

Adults

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

Registered Voters

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Likely Voters

58% Approve
38% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, September 2009. Includes 2,006 adults, 1,689 registered voters, and 1,291 likely voters. Interviews took place August 26–September 2, 2009. Margin of error ±2%.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0909.pdf
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change08
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« Reply #2355 on: September 11, 2009, 10:29:55 AM »

Kos/R2K Weekly poll

Name            Favourable    Unfavourable   Net Gain
PRESIDENT OBAMA   56 (52)   39 (43)   +8
         
PELOSI:   33 (32)   59 (59)   +1
REID:   30 (31)   59 (58)   -2
McCONNELL:   18 (19)   64 (63)   -2
BOEHNER:   14 (15)   62 (63)   0
         
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:   38 (39)   57 (56)   -2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:   17 (18)   70 (69)   -2
         
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:   40 (39)   51 (52)   +2
REPUBLICAN PARTY:   22 (23)   68 (69)   0
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2356 on: September 11, 2009, 11:25:59 AM »

Kos/R2K Weekly poll

Name            Favourable    Unfavourable   Net Gain
PRESIDENT OBAMA   56 (52)   39 (43)   +8
         
PELOSI:   33 (32)   59 (59)   +1
REID:   30 (31)   59 (58)   -2
McCONNELL:   18 (19)   64 (63)   -2
BOEHNER:   14 (15)   62 (63)   0
         
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:   38 (39)   57 (56)   -2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:   17 (18)   70 (69)   -2
         
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:   40 (39)   51 (52)   +2
REPUBLICAN PARTY:   22 (23)   68 (69)   0

What does 57-39 look like?  It depends, surprisingly, on how the undistributed 4% go. Should that undecided vote split about 3-1 Republican, it's something like this:



An Eisenhower '56 victory for Obama should Texas flip.

With a southern racist of the Strom Thurmond/George Wallace heritage splitting the conservative vote, it looks something like this:



LBJ '64 again.

I do not claim that either will happen.


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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2357 on: September 11, 2009, 11:30:13 AM »

It was nice to see your 2001 prediction of 2004, pbrower.  It was a fantastic reminder of how bad of an idea it is to predict elections so far in advance.  Why did you delete it?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2358 on: September 11, 2009, 11:48:19 AM »

Why anyone would take a KOS poll seriously is beyond me.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2359 on: September 11, 2009, 11:49:12 AM »

Kos/R2K Weekly poll

Name            Favourable    Unfavourable   Net Gain
PRESIDENT OBAMA   56 (52)   39 (43)   +8
         
PELOSI:   33 (32)   59 (59)   +1
REID:   30 (31)   59 (58)   -2
McCONNELL:   18 (19)   64 (63)   -2
BOEHNER:   14 (15)   62 (63)   0
         
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:   38 (39)   57 (56)   -2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:   17 (18)   70 (69)   -2
         
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:   40 (39)   51 (52)   +2
REPUBLICAN PARTY:   22 (23)   68 (69)   0

What does 57-39 look like?  It depends, surprisingly, on how the undistributed 4% go. Should that undecided vote split about 3-1 Republican, it's something like this:



An Eisenhower '56 victory for Obama should Texas flip.

With a southern racist of the Strom Thurmond/George Wallace heritage splitting the conservative vote, it looks something like this:



LBJ '64 again.

I do not claim that either will happen.





Oh my God.
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Edu
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« Reply #2360 on: September 11, 2009, 11:58:19 AM »

Why are people always pissing on Pbrower2a? As i understand it, he's not claiming that Obama will win this type of electoral victory in 2012, he just makes maps that take into account the polling data of today and then makes a projection of how it can be in 2012 if everything stays like it is today.
Things will stay like today? not likely. Is this unnecessary? You could say so. A bit dense? definitely. But apart from that i don't see anything wrong with what he's doing with the maps.

Even in his last post he said "I do not claim that either will happen"

Of course i could be mistaken Tongue but I've seen no indication that this guy thinks that the data for today will be exactly what will happen in 2012
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Badger
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« Reply #2361 on: September 11, 2009, 11:59:15 AM »

Colorado speaks!



Translated into a likely electoral result:


Modified CO to tossup. You can't predit anything yet, 3 years to go.
Really, people. Do we need to remind ourselves in every 5th post for this thread that 2012 is a long way off, etc. etc.? (This is by no means just aimed at you Magnetic Free--there are MANY here who persist in this habit). Like I've said before let us political junkies just enjoy PB's maps as a snapshot of what an election against a generic Republican would look like if held today and please limit reiterating the obvious and redundant point about how much could change in the next 3 years (or even till November next year).
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2362 on: September 11, 2009, 11:59:58 AM »

Why are people always pissing on Pbrower2a? As i understand it, he's not claiming that Obama will win this type of electoral victory in 2012, he just makes maps that take into account the polling data of today and then makes a projection of how it can be in 2012 if everything stays like it is today.
Things will stay like today? not likely. Is this unnecessary? You could say so. A bit dense? definitely. But apart from that i don't see anything wrong with what he's doing with the maps.

Even in his last post he said "I do not claim that either will happen"

Of course i could be mistaken Tongue but I've seen no indication that this guy thinks that the data for today will be exactly what will happen in 2012
Because he is a Democratic hack, and always rambles on about how the "Age Wave" will cause Obama to easily win re-election, even though little polling has been done on these new voters. It's an assumption that the youth will like our black president.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #2363 on: September 11, 2009, 12:03:21 PM »

Why are people always pissing on Pbrower2a? As i understand it, he's not claiming that Obama will win this type of electoral victory in 2012, he just makes maps that take into account the polling data of today and then makes a projection of how it can be in 2012 if everything stays like it is today.
Things will stay like today? not likely. Is this unnecessary? You could say so. A bit dense? definitely. But apart from that i don't see anything wrong with what he's doing with the maps.

Even in his last post he said "I do not claim that either will happen"

Of course i could be mistaken Tongue but I've seen no indication that this guy thinks that the data for today will be exactly what will happen in 2012
Because he is a Democratic hack, and always rambles on about how the "Age Wave" will cause Obama to easily win re-election, even though little polling has been done on these new voters. It's an assumption that the youth will like our black president.

Well, they certainly did a year ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/exit.polls/
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2364 on: September 11, 2009, 12:28:28 PM »

Why anyone would take a KOS poll seriously is beyond me.

Because they were accurate last year?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2365 on: September 11, 2009, 12:32:22 PM »

Why anyone would take a KOS poll seriously is beyond me.

Because they were accurate last year?

They had Obama up double-digits practically the whole time, and then made it close at the end to save face. If you looked at their poll you would think that McCain had a great final two weeks the way the gap shrunk.

But anyway, look at their sample, it's terrible. 17% "Non-Voters"? What the hell is that? Almost more of these "Non-voters" than Republicans.
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #2366 on: September 11, 2009, 01:13:33 PM »

pbrower2 is not taken seriously.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2367 on: September 11, 2009, 01:48:02 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2009, 05:42:08 PM by pbrower2a »

It was nice to see your 2001 prediction of 2004, pbrower.  It was a fantastic reminder of how bad of an idea it is to predict elections so far in advance.  Why did you delete it?

Accident. I had repeated a post and deleted the wrong one.

Here it is again, hopefully improved, based upon reasonable assumptions a few days after 9/11 of the Presidential election of 2004:



Dubya (R) 488 EV
Levin   (D)   50 EV



Dubya wins 85% of the vote in Oklahoma and 92% in NE-02!  People are already asking whether Rick Santorum or George Allen will win in a landslide in the 2008 Presidential election, and whether the Democratic Party has any long-term viability. One would have to make an allowance that the Democratic candidate of 2004, probably someone with long and respected service to his country (let's say Senator Carl Levin, D-MI) might get the nomination and flip a state or two -- in his case Michigan and perhaps New York and/or New Jersey, but don't count on it).

It would look really bad had the Democratic nominee not been from so large a state in electoral votes.

Oh -- Carl Levin loses his Senate seat in 2006 as "Michigan's McGovern" in the second-to-last last wave of conservative sweeps of liberals from office in 2006.
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #2368 on: September 11, 2009, 01:51:22 PM »

It was nice to see your 2001 prediction of 2004, pbrower.  It was a fantastic reminder of how bad of an idea it is to predict elections so far in advance.  Why did you delete it?

Accident. I had repeated a post and deleted the wrong one.

Here it is again, hopefully improved, based upon reasonable assumptions a few days after 9/11 of the Presidential election of 2004:



Dubya (R) 488 EV
Levin   (D)   50 EV



Dubya wins 85% of the vote in Oklahoma and 92% in NE-02!  People are already asking whether Rick Santorum or George Allen will win in a landslide in the 2008 Presidential election, and whether the Democratic Party has any long-term viability. One would have to make an allowance that the Democratic candidate of 2004, probably someone with long and respected service to his country (let's say Senator Carl Levin, D-MI) might get the nomination and flip a state or two -- in his case Michigan and perhaps New York and/or New Jersey, but don't count on it).

Oh -- Carl Levin loses his Senate seat in 2006 in the last wave of conservative sweeps of liberals from office in 2006.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2369 on: September 11, 2009, 02:02:10 PM »

All political life is flux. We must never forget that. Some things are of course impossible, or at least so unlikely that one has to go through incredible contortions to make them seem possible, as in "a Republican could win DC if the Democrat appears as a particiapant in a KKK rally" or "the Democrat will win Utah if his opponent calls Mormonism a 'demonic cult'".

Many people over-estimated Dubya's political abilities after 9/11 and his likelihood of getting genuine bipartisanship in meeting real dangers to America. I was one of them for a time.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #2370 on: September 11, 2009, 02:47:29 PM »

All political life is flux. We must never forget that. Some things are of course impossible, or at least so unlikely that one has to go through incredible contortions to make them seem possible, as in "a Republican could win DC if the Democrat appears as a particiapant in a KKK rally" or "the Democrat will win Utah if his opponent calls Mormonism a 'demonic cult'".

Many people over-estimated Dubya's political abilities after 9/11 and his likelihood of getting genuine bipartisanship in meeting real dangers to America. I was one of them for a time.

And oyu are currently way overestimating Obama.


Your a hack admit it.

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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #2371 on: September 11, 2009, 02:51:13 PM »

All political life is flux. We must never forget that. Some things are of course impossible, or at least so unlikely that one has to go through incredible contortions to make them seem possible, as in "a Republican could win DC if the Democrat appears as a particiapant in a KKK rally" or "the Democrat will win Utah if his opponent calls Mormonism a 'demonic cult'".

Many people over-estimated Dubya's political abilities after 9/11 and his likelihood of getting genuine bipartisanship in meeting real dangers to America. I was one of them for a time.

And oyu are currently way overestimating Obama.


Your a hack admit it.



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Rowan
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« Reply #2372 on: September 11, 2009, 02:53:38 PM »

JC isn't a hack, just an idiot.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2373 on: September 11, 2009, 03:16:31 PM »

All political life is flux. We must never forget that. Some things are of course impossible, or at least so unlikely that one has to go through incredible contortions to make them seem possible, as in "a Republican could win DC if the Democrat appears as a particiapant in a KKK rally" or "the Democrat will win Utah if his opponent calls Mormonism a 'demonic cult'".

Many people over-estimated Dubya's political abilities after 9/11 and his likelihood of getting genuine bipartisanship in meeting real dangers to America. I was one of them for a time.

And you are currently way overestimating Obama.


Your a hack admit it.



History will show whether I am right or wrong about Obama. I just see too many political strengths -- superb orator, good political strategist, ability to appeal to voters that the other Party takes for granted, shrewd use of media... all he has to do is to have some legislative successes and avoid scandals, and he could easily win the popular vote 54-45 in 2012.

Demographic change alone suggests that Obama will do slightly better in 2012 than in 2008. That's without the GOP shooting itself in the foot with "death panels" and without tea-bag "parties" going stale.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2374 on: September 11, 2009, 03:36:35 PM »


I just see too many political strengths -- superb orator, good political strategist, ability to appeal to voters that the other Party takes for granted, shrewd use of media...
Hitler had many of those qualities too, but he was still  unpopular. That stuff might help him in his first election campaign, but people will be voting on how he did as a President, not how well of a speaker he is.
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