The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Badger]

Actually the Iraq War would have went much smoother had the left not kept getting in the way of Bush's actions and constantly criticizing him.

Comedy goldmine here.

[War on Want]

Sigh.  No one said all government spening is inflationary.  But if government spending forces the central bank to monetize debt (as is happenning now) it will be inflationary.

What would be bad about inflation if we are starting to get into levels of big amounts of deflation...

[jimmie]

You know, I am starting to revert back to this:

Bush + Obama = Death of America.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If only we had elected Hillary, huh James?

[Psychic Octopus]

It says on Pollster.com (which combines all polls) that he has a 51.1% approval rating, and a 45% disapproval rating, in the most sensitive version. It also says he has a 47.6% approval/46.9 disapproval on the economy, 55.2 approval/35.4 disapproval on foreign policy, and a 46.2 approval/43.9 disapproval on health care.

[The Duke]

Sigh.  No one said all government spening is inflationary.  But if government spending forces the central bank to monetize debt (as is happenning now) it will be inflationary.

What would be bad about inflation if we are starting to get into levels of big amounts of deflation...

You don't want inflation or deflation.  You want price stability.

[BM]

Gallup:

54% (-2)
37% (+1)

[Ronnie]

Droppin' steadily...

[Rowan]

54% is his lowest ever in Gallup polling. Considering Gallup does adults and Rasmussen does likely voters, it's pretty plausible that Rasmussen's number isn't as far off as the left would want to believe.

[Democratic Hawk]

Droppin' steadily...

Droppin' steadily, then rising, then droppin' steadily again - it would seem

[Zarn]

Droppin' steadily...

Droppin' steadily, then rising, then droppin' steadily again - it would seem

His approvals use to be much higher. What are you smoking?

[Beet]

Given this economy, he was always going to drop below 50... it was inevitable. Although I must say I am surprised at both his honeymoon (the only President I really remember coming into office while I followed politics was George Bush, and he didn't really have much of a honeymoon, so this is the first "honeymoon" for me) and the speed at which it suddenly collapsed starting around mid June, about 5 months into his Presidency.

The question, as I believe someone pointed out several months ago, is when he gets back over 50.

[Democratic Hawk]

Droppin' steadily...

Droppin' steadily, then rising, then droppin' steadily again - it would seem

His approvals use to be much higher. What are you smoking?

That they did - and they'll ebb and flow, no doubt, upwards or downwards, for the duration of his presidency depend on events and how he responds to them, as well as the, overall, state of the economy. The honeymoon is over. Question is can he and congressional Democrats hold their nerve? Tough choices lie ahead - and they aren't, by any means, always going to be popular

[Eraserhead]

Given this economy, he was always going to drop below 50... it was inevitable. Although I must say I am surprised at both his honeymoon (the only President I really remember coming into office while I followed politics was George Bush, and he didn't really have much of a honeymoon, so this is the first "honeymoon" for me) and the speed at which it suddenly collapsed starting around mid June, about 5 months into his Presidency.

The question, as I believe someone pointed out several months ago, is when he gets back over 50.

He isn't under 50 on average yet but he probably will be in the not so distance future. I agree that your question is the right one though.

[Rowan]

NPR

Approve 53%
Disapprove 42%

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=111194032&ps=cprs

[Ronnie]

NPR

Approve 53%
Disapprove 42%

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=111194032&ps=cprs

Does anyone know whether they polled likely, registered, or adult voters?

[Sam Spade]

It's RV.

Look folks, as I've said before, the economy will drive Obama's ratings to a large extent. 

But if Obama is going to attempt to drive legislation through the way he's done, you're going to see something similar to Bush's trendline in the absence of 9/11 and Iraq.  Of course, some other events can occur (similar to 9/11) to affect these numbers (and probably will).  And if the economy were to turn into mid-80s or late-90s style, then you'll definitely see the trendline broken.  I don't see the latter, of course, at all, but just as a hypo...

Presently, Obama's numbers are a bit artificially low temporarily (like maybe 2%-3%) because of the complete mishandling of this Gates thing.  They should bounce up again once this gets out of the news.  The trendline is still there, however,

[Ronnie]

Is RV the most accurate of methods at the moment?

It seems as if LVs are the least favorable toward Obama, RVs are kind of middle of the road, and Adult Voters favor Obama.  Am I correct in my assessment.

[Mr.Phips]

It's RV.

Look folks, as I've said before, the economy will drive Obama's ratings to a large extent. 

But if Obama is going to attempt to drive legislation through the way he's done, you're going to see something similar to Bush's trendline in the absence of 9/11 and Iraq.  Of course, some other events can occur (similar to 9/11) to affect these numbers (and probably will).  And if the economy were to turn into mid-80s or late-90s style, then you'll definitely see the trendline broken.  I don't see the latter, of course, at all, but just as a hypo...

,

I dont think the economy will look the way it did in mid 80's or late 90's anytime soon.  Probably not until around 2016 or later. 

[Sam Spade]

Is RV the most accurate of methods at the moment?

It seems as if LVs are the least favorable toward Obama, RVs are kind of middle of the road, and Adult Voters favor Obama.  Am I correct in my assessment.

I am naturally inclined to believe RVs are the best measure at this point.  Adults will of course, favor Democrats.  I don't know what a LV is right now.

Though honestly, the difference between RV and LV has not shown up in PPP vs. Rasmussen.  But of course, I tend to believe that a computer-pollster effect exists, comparing SUSA (adults), PPP (RV) and Rasmussen (LV) with other polling firms.

[??????????]

45% Favor
52% Oppose

Let them be sick and die then.

Funny talking like that about Arizona. That's where many of the elderly reside in their retirement. Your wish will certainly come true for them under nationalized healthcare.

[Farage]

I still think Obama will be a popular president. I'm also thinking that his lowest rate may be 45 pc but he will, like every president before, regain popularity. I think that he's calculating what he's doing and BTW he is smarter than Bush or Clinton.
He has and will always have a strong popularity among Blacks and Liberals, having 2/3 or at least 1/2 of the latino support and at least 40 pc of the White support.
American Electoral Landscape is changing and the only descent republican for the future is Charlie Crist

[You kip if you want to...]

I still think Obama will be a popular president. I'm also thinking that his lowest rate may be 45 pc but he will, like every president before, regain popularity. I think that he's calculating what he's doing and BTW he is smarter than Bush or Clinton.
He has and will always have a strong popularity among Blacks and Liberals, having 2/3 or at least 1/2 of the latino support and at least 40 pc of the White support.
American Electoral Landscape is changing and the only descent republican for the future is Charlie Crist

I whole heartedly agree with that. Future Senator Crist should run in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

Battleground Poll (The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners)

53% Approve (40% Strongly, DEM: 90-6, REP: 18-78, IND: 42-50)
42% Disapprove (37% Strongly)

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

72% Approve
20% Disapprove

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 61% Favorable, 36% Unfavorable
Biden: 49% Favorable, 38% Unfavorable
Palin: 42% Favorable, 47% Unfavorable

Composition of sample: 42% DEM, 37% REP, 19% IND, 1% OTHER, 1% REFUSED

1000 Registered "Likely" Voters, July 19-23, 2009

The George Washington University Battleground Poll is a collaborative bi-partisan survey produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.

http://www.tarrance.com/BG-37-questionnaire.pdf

http://www.tarrance.com/Battleground37GOPAnalysisCharts.pdf

[Tender Branson]

It's interesting that the Battleground Poll and the NPR Survey (both conducted by bipartisan institutes) have the same approval numbers. Both use Likely Voter Models. I guess both of them have live callers. So is it really the computer that makes up the 10%-difference from Rasmussen ?

Last time I checked Rasmussen, they had just 80% of Democrats approving, while this poll has 90% approving. Why this difference ? Rasmussen also says Independents are split, while this poll shows a leaning towards disapproval. Probably Republicans at Rasmussen disapprove by a bigger margin as well.

If you look at page 2 of the Battleground release

http://www.tarrance.com/Battleground37GOPAnalysisCharts.pdf

you will notice why Adult polls differ by about 5% from LV polls. Minority voters and therefore Democrats are far less likely to state that they "are likely to vote".