The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1071291 times)
Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #1575 on: July 24, 2009, 11:18:49 AM »

The disapproval is also stemming from liberals, who are seeing that all his foreign policy/national security stances that fervently supported him for have rapidly become George W. Bush all over again. And no way is Obama governing from the center. Obama is the least "central" president since FDR, or at least Johnson.
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Badger
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« Reply #1576 on: July 24, 2009, 12:03:27 PM »

It might be just noise, guys.

Nevertheless, until Obama starts becoming fiscally responsible, I can't see his approval rating going up.
It never hurt Bush much.

And at least Obama actually has a good reason for running up the deficit in the short term with  economic stimulus to combat the recession and addressing the banking/mortgage crisis (thanks again, W), as opposed to Bush's long term budgetary plan of: "raise $4 revenue and spend $5" was simply far-right ideology trumping plain arithmetic.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1577 on: July 24, 2009, 12:06:09 PM »

How is spending more right-wing?
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1578 on: July 24, 2009, 01:06:56 PM »

The Virginia poll is an outlier. His approval in Virginia is probably between 50-55%.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1579 on: July 24, 2009, 01:10:11 PM »

ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL HEARTLAND MONITOR NATIONAL SURVEY Conducted by FD:

56% Approve
36% Disapprove

National Sample of 1202 Adults Age 18+ (Margin of Error = +/ 2.8% in 95 out of 100 cases)
July 5-12 2009

http://www.nationaljournal.com/img/news/090723heartland2topline.pdf
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #1580 on: July 24, 2009, 01:33:52 PM »

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

This is funny they probably added all the undecided to the disapprove. Look at these two polls and compare it to Rasmussen.

Gallup

Approve 56%   
Dissaprove 39%

FOX News

Approve 54%
Disaprove 38%   
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Vepres
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« Reply #1581 on: July 24, 2009, 01:56:43 PM »


Virginia:

44% Approve (-15)
49% Disapprove (+13)

Who the hell did they call to get an (unrealistic) swing like that?

Or just maybe their VA poll before this one was unrealistic. Anywho, this seems close to right.

Not in a state which Obama carried by 6.3% it doesn't

Yes right now Obama's approval rating is 50-53 national, so VA would be somewhere in the 48-50 range. Like I said it is close to right, not right on the money.

I don't consider that particularly close to right. Anyway, I need to see the demographic base percentages to determine whether its plausible or not. Could be too few, or too many, of this, that and the other. I'm not buying any significant drop-off from moderates, given that the president is governing from the pragmatic center-left and isn't by any stretch of the imagination a radical, not from where I stand on the issues, at least, and I consider myself a Christian Democrat

Most polling firms show him with negative nation approvals with independents. It's usually around 40-60 with the 60 disapproving. Independents are ~27% of voters in Virginia. So if you have the Republican base, which is ~33%, and the Democratic base, which is ~39%, and the independents lean disapprove, then you get around the area that this poll was.

As to why independents are more disapproving of Obama, I personally think it has to do with the budget deficits.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1582 on: July 24, 2009, 02:09:56 PM »

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

This is funny they probably added all the undecided to the disapprove. Look at these two polls and compare it to Rasmussen.

Gallup

Approve 56%   
Dissaprove 39%

FOX News

Approve 54%
Disaprove 38%   

Rasmussen is likely voters. The others are all adults.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1583 on: July 24, 2009, 03:01:38 PM »

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

This is funny they probably added all the undecided to the disapprove. Look at these two polls and compare it to Rasmussen.

Gallup

Approve 56%   
Dissaprove 39%

FOX News

Approve 54%
Disaprove 38%   

Rasmussen is likely voters. The others are all adults.

Rasmussen's "likely voters" screen grossly underestimates the youngest voters. Young voters were strongly Democratic and voted at an unusually-high volume  for youth voters in 2008. Some of Rasmussen's "likely voters" won't vote in 2012 (largely-older voters due to death or senescence); Rasmussen's "likely voters" fails to include voters born between 1990 and 1994.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1584 on: July 24, 2009, 03:07:36 PM »

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

This is funny they probably added all the undecided to the disapprove. Look at these two polls and compare it to Rasmussen.

Gallup

Approve 56%   
Dissaprove 39%

FOX News

Approve 54%
Disaprove 38%   

Rasmussen is likely voters. The others are all adults.

Rasmussen's "likely voters" screen grossly underestimates the youngest voters. Young voters were strongly Democratic and voted at an unusually-high volume  for youth voters in 2008. Some of Rasmussen's "likely voters" won't vote in 2012 (largely-older voters due to death or senescence); Rasmussen's "likely voters" fails to include voters born between 1990 and 1994.

You are grasping at straws and coming up with nothing.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1585 on: July 24, 2009, 03:22:58 PM »

Look, until Rasmussen starts using a registered voters or adult voters sample (or we get to within a month or two from the next election) their poll numbers are going to be slanted Republican by a bit. Using a likely voters screen over a year before any election (and over three from the next presidential election) is stupid. But this way Rasmussen gets to spin the poll numbers his own way and Fox is willing to invite him on the air to talk about how much Obama sucks.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1586 on: July 24, 2009, 04:08:11 PM »

There is nothing Republican about trying to figure out who will actually vote.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1587 on: July 24, 2009, 05:46:02 PM »


Virginia:

44% Approve (-15)
49% Disapprove (+13)

Who the hell did they call to get an (unrealistic) swing like that?

Or just maybe their VA poll before this one was unrealistic. Anywho, this seems close to right.

Not in a state which Obama carried by 6.3% it doesn't

Yes right now Obama's approval rating is 50-53 national, so VA would be somewhere in the 48-50 range. Like I said it is close to right, not right on the money.

I don't consider that particularly close to right. Anyway, I need to see the demographic base percentages to determine whether its plausible or not. Could be too few, or too many, of this, that and the other. I'm not buying any significant drop-off from moderates, given that the president is governing from the pragmatic center-left and isn't by any stretch of the imagination a radical, not from where I stand on the issues, at least, and I consider myself a Christian Democrat

Most polling firms show him with negative nation approvals with independents. It's usually around 40-60 with the 60 disapproving. Independents are ~27% of voters in Virginia. So if you have the Republican base, which is ~33%, and the Democratic base, which is ~39%, and the independents lean disapprove, then you get around the area that this poll was.

Independents only narrowly favored Obama in Virginia (48-47). Nationally, independents will ebb towards him and flow away from him depending on his performance, and the extent to which his policies are perceived, positively or negatively, and as we all know there is one bad ass bitch of a recession right now

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Little of which, to date, can be directly attributed to this president
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1588 on: July 24, 2009, 05:46:58 PM »

There is nothing Republican about trying to figure out who will actually vote.

It's simply impossible to predict which current 15-year-olds and 16-year-olds will vote three years from now. Rasmussen does not try; it is thus safe to look at a Rasmussen poll as a floor (for Democrats) that will likely rise as Election Day approaches.

If Rasmussen had been polling in 1980 or 1984 with the same methodology, then his firm would have greatly underestimated Reagan victories.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1589 on: July 24, 2009, 06:05:19 PM »

Look, until Rasmussen starts using a registered voters or adult voters sample (or we get to within a month or two from the next election) their poll numbers are going to be slanted Republican by a bit. Using a likely voters screen over a year before any election (and over three from the next presidential election) is stupid. But this way Rasmussen gets to spin the poll numbers his own way and Fox is willing to invite him on the air to talk about how much Obama sucks.

Rassmusen is the new Zogby. Cool
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The Trump Virus
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« Reply #1590 on: July 24, 2009, 07:10:10 PM »

Clay is from Georgia. Obama is a black.

No.

Just.....

No.
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CJK
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« Reply #1591 on: July 24, 2009, 07:24:42 PM »

There is nothing Republican about trying to figure out who will actually vote.

It's simply impossible to predict which current 15-year-olds and 16-year-olds will vote three years from now. Rasmussen does not try; it is thus safe to look at a Rasmussen poll as a floor (for Democrats) that will likely rise as Election Day approaches.

If Rasmussen had been polling in 1980 or 1984 with the same methodology, then his firm would have greatly underestimated Reagan victories.

Dude, I hope you know that no polling firm tries to predict how 15 and 16 year olds will vote.

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Rowan
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« Reply #1592 on: July 24, 2009, 08:04:14 PM »

There is nothing Republican about trying to figure out who will actually vote.

It's simply impossible to predict which current 15-year-olds and 16-year-olds will vote three years from now. Rasmussen does not try; it is thus safe to look at a Rasmussen poll as a floor (for Democrats) that will likely rise as Election Day approaches.

If Rasmussen had been polling in 1980 or 1984 with the same methodology, then his firm would have greatly underestimated Reagan victories.

Dude, I hope you know that no polling firm tries to predict how 15 and 16 year olds will vote.



I don't think he understands that concept.
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War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
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« Reply #1593 on: July 24, 2009, 08:04:25 PM »

Well than how anything Obama has been doing unamerican?
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change08
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« Reply #1594 on: July 24, 2009, 08:11:09 PM »

Well than how anything Obama has been doing unamerican?

Aren't all Democrats unamerican?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1595 on: July 24, 2009, 10:03:49 PM »

There is nothing Republican about trying to figure out who will actually vote.

It's simply impossible to predict which current 15-year-olds and 16-year-olds will vote three years from now. Rasmussen does not try; it is thus safe to look at a Rasmussen poll as a floor (for Democrats) that will likely rise as Election Day approaches.

If Rasmussen had been polling in 1980 or 1984 with the same methodology, then his firm would have greatly underestimated Reagan victories.

Dude, I hope you know that no polling firm tries to predict how 15 and 16 year olds will vote.



I have seen little evidence of such youth going R when they vote in 2012. If one tries to predict how an election will go four years out, then you need to know what the demographic trends are.

Of course those trends do not show what the general perception of Obama will be in 2012; if he proves corrupt, inept, or otherwise disreputable then no well-tuned campaign machine can rescue him. But if things are reasonably good for him -- if nothing changes but demographics -- then the best scenario for the Republicans is that Obama picks up Missouri, Arizona, and maybe Montana or Georgia. So he pleases the people who voted for him and gets a little gain from the youth vote, and the best that the GOP can hope for rescuing as many electoral votes as possible is Huckabee versus Obama, and Obama wins.

(Romney probably does better with popular votes,  cutting some of the gigantic margins by which Obama won in 2008 in the Blue Firewall, but not enough to swing any state except perhaps Indiana. Romney has no obvious appeal in the South, and might lose a couple states as many poor-white votes hemorrhage away from McCain's margins. That's before I even talk about Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich.)

I make this prediction of the votes of persons now 14 to 18 who were too young to vote on the material of  Neil Howe and the late William Strauss in their Generations and Fourth Turning theories which so far have explained how youth will vote -- and how they have voted since the 1930s. They could explain the huge margins for FDR... and Ronald Reagan.  Current young adults, according to these theories, have political attitudes similar in many ways to the GI Generation of World War II veterans -- and in the 1930s that generation was the most politically-liberal in American history. It was too rational to fall for "Vote this way lest the Devil take you!); even if it was religious it went for such types as Billy Graham or Fulton Sheen  who kept the message optimistic and rational.

Such is much in contrast to the Lost Generation born late in the 19th century who voted heavily for Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge, and Generation X, who amazed the rest of America with their support for Ronald Reagan -- youth already suspicious of everything other than commerce, youth who thought that so long as the Right People wielded the power and managed the wealth, all would be well. 

What can overcome this?

1. An incredibly-strong, charismatic GOP nominee who has no regional weaknesses (Reagan) or who has a record of military heroism as a leader (Eisenhower). A technocrat who seems to have no feelings will remind people of what is worst with the GOP.

Problem #1 for the GOP: Barack Obama has much the same repertory of political skills as Ronald Reagan.

Problem #2: should General Petraeus get a pair of glorious victories in Iraq and Afghanistan, then he solves the mess that Dubya left behind to the political advantage of Obama in 2012 and even if he takes the role of Dwight Eisenhower, he does so in 2016, when the 22nd Amendment likely retires Obama.

2. Catastrophic failure by Obama as President. A recession giving way to a shaky recovery that ends in a 1929-style Crash would be the economic disaster that leads to political failure, and I will leave diplomatic and military calamities with similar effect to your imagination.

Problem: We are all up a filthy creek (we all know its metaphoric name) with no paddle, so to speak.

You cannot assume that the Religious Right will reshape American political values in time for 2012; it relied heavily upon Baby Boomers, and their kids flee it at the first chance. Taxing and government spending will of course offend the Corporate base of the GOP, but those will matter little to voters so long as those seem to bring higher pay and better lives. Face it: if you get a government job do you care about the taxes that fund your job and make the difference between going hungry and having some semblance of middle-class norms of life?

Nothing can redeem the record of our disgraced 43rd President.  Democrats will bring that record up as often as they think necessary in 2012 as in 2008, and any GOP nominee will need to distance himself from him. Republicans from a time before Dubya will be too old (Dubya will be 66 in 2012) to appeal with nostalgia for 'better times'; younger Republicans who have no ties to Dubya have yet to have careers advanced enough to be serious nationwide candidates... or (Collins or Snowe in Maine, maybe Murkowski in Alaska) might as well be Democrats.

I remember one ad campaign by the Reagan candidacy from 1984: "I Remember You",  a scathing presentation of Mondale/Ferraro as an attempt to return to the old liberal habits of Jimmy Carter and their consequences (gas lines, high unemployment, hostage-taking in Iran).  I can imagine a campaign that morphs any GOP nominee into George W. Bush:

"He believes in ravaging the environment to get quick profits for his buddies...

He believes in tax breaks for the super-rich that will do you no good...

He believes in keeping wages low...

He believes in forcing creationism in schools...

He believes in outsourcing American jobs...

He believes that the current (or former) way of health care is just fine...

JUST LIKE GEORGE W. BUSH

or, in a twist on "I remember you"...

business failures, corruption scandals, "Mission Accomplished!", massive job losses, people abandoning or being foreclosed from houses, personal debt outpacing personal income...

Obama proved a masterful campaigner in 2012, and even if he can't do appreciable overt campaigning, he has a formidable campaign machine that he can restart at the right time.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #1596 on: July 24, 2009, 10:18:48 PM »

Honestly, Stop being a baby!


If things don't go your way you throw a f***ing tantrum!

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ej2mm15
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« Reply #1597 on: July 24, 2009, 10:22:05 PM »

You are talking about 15-16 year olds? They are very democratic.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1598 on: July 24, 2009, 10:25:47 PM »

The SUSA numbers extrapolate out to about a 53% approval rating.

Also, of polls at this time in the game, RV is best.  Adults will skew too Democratic (as always).  I don't know what a LV is at this point, so I tend to leery of that measure as well, though Rasmussen is so heavily weighted, it may not make a difference between RV and LV for him (the distinction may be not statistically significant).

Once again, the key distinction that is statistically significant and that shows up again and again is that Obama does 2-5 points better in adult polls vs. RV polls (expected) AND does 2-5 points better in live operator polls vs. computer-operated ones (adults vs adults and RV vs. RV NOT adult vs. RV).
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1599 on: July 24, 2009, 10:40:36 PM »

You are talking about 15-16 year olds? They are very democratic.

Somewhat true, but a lot of teens are only democrat because Obama was running. Most teens don't know what the difference between a Republican and  a Democrat. I think the GOP needs to show teens the principles of the party.

Here's how most teens figure politics:
George Bush = Bad = Republican
Obama = God = Democrat

So most teens think since they like Obama then they are a democrat. When they mature, they will figure it out and become more conservative.
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