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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030446 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1175 on: June 21, 2009, 06:29:49 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

No, it'll be a landslide victory in '10. I know because I read it on this forum.
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change08
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« Reply #1176 on: June 21, 2009, 06:32:16 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

Yeah, I actually find it doubtful we'll make gains. But, look at '94, Republican landslide and Dole did terrible in '96. The midterms are a good guide, not always though. If we do well in 2010, it'll be because of Republican failings, not our success.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1177 on: June 21, 2009, 06:36:23 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

Yeah, I actually find it doubtful we'll make gains. But, look at '94, Republican landslide and Dole did terrible in '96. The midterms are a good guide, not always though. If we do well in 2010, it'll be because of Republican failings, not our success.

Clinton beat Dole because he basically became a Republican, abandoning healthcare reform, and signing Welfare Reform and deregulation.  A Republican landslide in 2010 would likely wipe Democrats out of Congress for at least another 12 years. 
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Vepres
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« Reply #1178 on: June 21, 2009, 06:48:05 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

Yeah, I actually find it doubtful we'll make gains. But, look at '94, Republican landslide and Dole did terrible in '96. The midterms are a good guide, not always though. If we do well in 2010, it'll be because of Republican failings, not our success.

Clinton beat Dole because he basically became a Republican, abandoning healthcare reform, and signing Welfare Reform and deregulation.  A Republican landslide in 2010 would likely wipe Democrats out of Congress for at least another 12 years. 

Then everybody would talk about how the Democratic party is dead, and how they've lost touch with America, blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, Republicans will make gains in 2010, but they will be hard pressed to take back either house of congress.
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change08
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« Reply #1179 on: June 21, 2009, 06:51:00 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

Yeah, I actually find it doubtful we'll make gains. But, look at '94, Republican landslide and Dole did terrible in '96. The midterms are a good guide, not always though. If we do well in 2010, it'll be because of Republican failings, not our success.

Clinton beat Dole because he basically became a Republican, abandoning healthcare reform, and signing Welfare Reform and deregulation.  A Republican landslide in 2010 would likely wipe Democrats out of Congress for at least another 12 years. 

Then everybody would talk about how the Democratic party is dead, and how they've lost touch with America, blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, Republicans will make gains in 2010, but they will be hard pressed to take back either house of congress.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1180 on: June 21, 2009, 06:56:46 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

Yeah, I actually find it doubtful we'll make gains. But, look at '94, Republican landslide and Dole did terrible in '96. The midterms are a good guide, not always though. If we do well in 2010, it'll be because of Republican failings, not our success.

Clinton beat Dole because he basically became a Republican, abandoning healthcare reform, and signing Welfare Reform and deregulation.  A Republican landslide in 2010 would likely wipe Democrats out of Congress for at least another 12 years. 

Then everybody would talk about how the Democratic party is dead, and how they've lost touch with America, blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, Republicans will make gains in 2010, but they will be hard pressed to take back either house of congress.

Well, luckily for the Democrats, the Senate is impossible this cycle, but the House could get awfully close. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1181 on: June 21, 2009, 07:38:30 pm »

Does anyone have approval info for Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton and Bush Jr from this point in their first term?

According to Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

Jimmy Carter 63% (June 1977)
Ronald Reagan 59% (June 1981)
George H. W. Bush 70% (June 1989)
Bill Clinton 41% (June 1993)
George W. Bush 54% (June 2001)

So it's very stupid to use approvals to guess if a president will be reelected at this point.

It's stupid to say that he will be reelected or won't be reelected.

It's not stupid to guess. The evidence just says it is not likely, given that current trends continue. The people that this hurts the most (given trends continue to the fall and next fall) are freshmen Congressmen, Corzine, and maybe even Deeds.

*facepalm*
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Mechaman
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« Reply #1182 on: June 21, 2009, 10:17:31 pm »

Holy sh**t, Bush senior had a 70% approval rating only 5 months after taking office?
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Zarn
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« Reply #1183 on: June 21, 2009, 10:52:19 pm »

Does anyone have approval info for Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton and Bush Jr from this point in their first term?

According to Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

Jimmy Carter 63% (June 1977)
Ronald Reagan 59% (June 1981)
George H. W. Bush 70% (June 1989)
Bill Clinton 41% (June 1993)
George W. Bush 54% (June 2001)

So it's very stupid to use approvals to guess if a president will be reelected at this point.

It's stupid to say that he will be reelected or won't be reelected.

It's not stupid to guess. The evidence just says it is not likely, given that current trends continue. The people that this hurts the most (given trends continue to the fall and next fall) are freshmen Congressmen, Corzine, and maybe even Deeds.

*facepalm*

Instead of being insulting, why don't you just point out what you don't like and why.

There had been many things that you have said that I did not like. Don't expect everyone to agree with you on everything.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1184 on: June 21, 2009, 11:32:41 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1185 on: June 22, 2009, 02:28:24 am »
« Edited: June 22, 2009, 11:37:22 am by pbrower2a »

Response to late polls:

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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1186 on: June 22, 2009, 10:05:52 am »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1187 on: June 22, 2009, 10:10:02 am »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.
I think that when a lot of people voted for Obama, they were giving him a chance. They didn't agree with his views as much as they did McCain, but they wanted to see what he could do. He hasn't done a lot, and our economy is still failing, so of course they are going to go against him. Far left people are annoyed that Obama is governing to the center, and centrists think Obama is governing to the left. If this continues, I think he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2012.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1188 on: June 22, 2009, 10:37:00 am »

Or, they didn't see much of a difference between Obama and McCain on some key issues. Even Obama has said he'd support taxing health benefits. That was the same thing he blasted McCain for during the campaign. Anyway, any libertarian minded person would naturally be appalled at the spending that Obama has done in the past 5 months.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1189 on: June 22, 2009, 10:44:47 am »

My own little map, of what I expect the map would look like if the election was tomorrow.



Prediction: By the end of 2009, Obama will have negative approval ratings in Montana, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada, the Mountain West swing states.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1190 on: June 22, 2009, 12:48:39 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.
I think that when a lot of people voted for Obama, they were giving him a chance. They didn't agree with his views as much as they did McCain, but they wanted to see what he could do. He hasn't done a lot, and our economy is still failing, so of course they are going to go against him. Far left people are annoyed that Obama is governing to the center, and centrists think Obama is governing to the left. If this continues, I think he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2012.

It's also Mason-Dixon. They blew Nevada by almost 10% last year.

Also, the "excellent/good/fair/poor" questioning is something different to "Approve/Disapprove" ...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1191 on: June 22, 2009, 01:07:24 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.
I think that when a lot of people voted for Obama, they were giving him a chance. They didn't agree with his views as much as they did McCain, but they wanted to see what he could do. He hasn't done a lot, and our economy is still failing, so of course they are going to go against him. Far left people are annoyed that Obama is governing to the center, and centrists think Obama is governing to the left. If this continues, I think he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2012.

It's also Mason-Dixon. They blew Nevada by almost 10% last year.

Also, the "excellent/good/fair/poor" questioning is something different to "Approve/Disapprove" ...

Yeah, I think people sometimes come to a term like "fair" with different interpretations of what it means in their head.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1192 on: June 22, 2009, 02:08:20 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.

State's rights and the budget deficit are big issues out here (relatively speaking). Obama appeared to be a moderate who would cut wasteful spending, be pragmatic and work with Republicans. The stimulus, which many people out here opposed, didn't help either. And, at least in Colorado's case, there are many independents, and Obama's approvals have been slowly declining with them.

I would be interested to see Obama's approvals amongst Latinos, because they are a crucial demographic out west (and in Florida of course).
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1193 on: June 22, 2009, 02:55:45 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.
I think that when a lot of people voted for Obama, they were giving him a chance. They didn't agree with his views as much as they did McCain, but they wanted to see what he could do.

Surely, those who agreed more with McCain would have voted for him

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Yes, the recession ain't over yet. It's, obviously, a pretty severe one. This president hasn't had the fortune of coming to office with a reasonably good economy and a federal government living well within its means. Yes, there was the bursting of the dot-com bubble but that was nothing compared to this. I don't recall the UK and Europe in recession as a result

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The president is what he is, a pragmatic center-leftist, and generally-speaking, I'd say that is where he is governing from

Still, as far as the economy goes, as long as it remains in down-turn with unemployment rising then this president's approvals are sure to take a hit just as they did with Reagan. In January 1983, he was sitting at 35% approval in Gallup but it wasn't, as we all know, to stay that way

Rome wasn't rebuilt in six months! My advice to the president is to knuckle-down, get on with the job, fight the good fight and do what has to be done

It took me until August 2004 to come out swinging against George W Bush - for ideologically-driven ineptitude. And believe me if Obama, ultimately, proves to be an improvement on that it would most certainly be "change" I can believe in

Oh, and in the context of this Nevada poll, "fair" isn't in itself isn't necessarily a negative assessment. It could, to a degree, imply "lukewarm" to "cool" approval - and Mason-Dixon, where a bit wide of the mark, when it came to how that stated voted in November.

Of course, the libertarian Mountain West could be irked by a rising deficit and all of the spending (or rather investment in this president's case given the nature of the Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act) - but it didn't prevent the region from re-electing Bush in 2004 did it?
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Rowan
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« Reply #1194 on: June 22, 2009, 03:30:26 pm »

ARG

Approve 57%(-4)
Disapprove 41%(+9)

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
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Rowan
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« Reply #1195 on: June 22, 2009, 03:32:30 pm »

Harris Poll

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/pubs/Harris_Poll_2009_06_22.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1196 on: June 22, 2009, 03:36:22 pm »


Interactive polls -- no controls -- no value.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1197 on: June 22, 2009, 03:39:26 pm »

...
His ratings are in a freefall. I'm surprised, as my opinion of him has slightly improved over the past few weeks.
Will Obama's approval rating be lower than his disapproval rating by the end of the year, by RCP averages? I was sceptical, but I think there is a chance, unless the economy quickly recovers.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #1198 on: June 22, 2009, 05:32:36 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

No, it'll be a landslide victory in '10. I know because I read it on this forum.

Roll Eyes

How many times must it be explained to you people that Democrats will likely lose a handful of seats in the House but due to structural advantages, will likely pick up at least a couple Senate seats?

Honestly, I get tired of this BS disingenuous attitude. I haven't heard any remotely serious individual claim 2010 will be another blowout year. Get a clue.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #1199 on: June 22, 2009, 05:35:49 pm »

...
His ratings are in a freefall. I'm surprised, as my opinion of him has slightly improved over the past few weeks.

It's pretty simple, actually. He's playing the age-old Democratic game of trying to act Conservative on everything he can and being a wimp about approaching things, and generally acting as if he didn't get one of the largest and most unique victories in recent decades. The left is growing to hate him because he's a spineless liar who wants to pretend to be as Republican as possible, and the Republicans hate him because he's a Democrat.

Hence, he governs from the center, and pleases almost no-one.
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