The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082860 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #1000 on: June 07, 2009, 10:45:02 AM »

I highly doubt Obama still has 60% + Approvals for doing nothing productive in the entire time as president. It'll be funny if the pollsters show Obama's #'s go up if GM or Chrysler close down.

All these polls are B.S , you can thank the media for that Cheesy

How old are you? Just curious.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1001 on: June 08, 2009, 08:45:34 AM »

Rasmussen is back up to 56-43 (+3, -3) and +7 again.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #1002 on: June 08, 2009, 09:12:59 AM »

I highly doubt Obama still has 60% + Approvals for doing nothing productive in the entire time as president. It'll be funny if the pollsters show Obama's #'s go up if GM or Chrysler close down.

All these polls are B.S , you can thank the media for that Cheesy

How old are you? Just curious.

14.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1003 on: June 08, 2009, 09:35:15 AM »

Rasmussen is back up to 56-43 (+3, -3) and +7 again.

Yeah, the one outlier came off.
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Smash255
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« Reply #1004 on: June 08, 2009, 12:15:01 PM »

I highly doubt Obama still has 60% + Approvals for doing nothing productive in the entire time as president. It'll be funny if the pollsters show Obama's #'s go up if GM or Chrysler close down.

All these polls are B.S , you can thank the media for that Cheesy

How old are you? Just curious.

14.


Ahhh......
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1005 on: June 08, 2009, 04:23:21 PM »

I highly doubt Obama still has 60% + Approvals for doing nothing productive in the entire time as president. It'll be funny if the pollsters show Obama's #'s go up if GM or Chrysler close down.

All these polls are B.S , you can thank the media for that Cheesy

How old are you? Just curious.

14.

You have some growing up to do before you can join the armed services, use cancerweed or stupidwater products, drive a motor vehicle, attend college, view R-rated movies without an adult parent or guardian, or vote.  You will surely find out by then why your Jewish ancestors typically had political views diametrically opposite yours.

May God bless you with much more wisdom before you get any real responsibilities.

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Rowan
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« Reply #1006 on: June 08, 2009, 08:22:13 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2009, 08:23:46 PM by RowanBrandon »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."
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Vepres
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« Reply #1007 on: June 08, 2009, 08:37:23 PM »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
unempprof
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« Reply #1008 on: June 08, 2009, 09:49:36 PM »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.


I highly doubt fervor among young voters has died down because of Obama's "big government" policies.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1009 on: June 08, 2009, 11:58:52 PM »

Nah, we youngsters love the socialism.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1010 on: June 09, 2009, 04:47:05 AM »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.

Yeah, I'm sure the Chrysler bailout killed him among youngsters. Roll Eyes
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Rowan
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« Reply #1011 on: June 09, 2009, 05:56:46 AM »

I think it's most likely just a case of "It's summer dude, let's go to the beach and get wasted. That would be soo cool! Wait, I need to take this survey first?  the government!"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1012 on: June 09, 2009, 11:02:22 AM »

Rasmussen today:

58% Approve (+2)
41% Disapprove (-2)

So the 53-47 was really an outlier ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1013 on: June 09, 2009, 11:09:26 AM »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.

Youthful idealism has a way of becoming middle-aged pragmatism, but that takes time. That pragmatism may preserve practices that once seemed outside the range of possibility.

We are thrust into the need for Big Government as the only possible solution for stopping an economic meltdown. Government choices got us into the predicament, and government choices either get us out or get us in worse. At the least, Obama has reversed the bad trends that his predecessor promoted.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #1014 on: June 09, 2009, 11:11:51 AM »

I highly doubt Obama still has 60% + Approvals for doing nothing productive in the entire time as president. It'll be funny if the pollsters show Obama's #'s go up if GM or Chrysler close down.

All these polls are B.S , you can thank the media for that Cheesy

How old are you? Just curious.

14.

You have some growing up to do before you can join the armed services, use cancerweed or stupidwater products, drive a motor vehicle, attend college, view R-rated movies without an adult parent or guardian, or vote.  You will surely find out by then why your Jewish ancestors typically had political views diametrically opposite yours.

May God bless you with much more wisdom before you get any real responsibilities.



oh...yes, I'll find out why Jews are so far-left that christians support Israel more  then  some Jews.

oh.. wait I already know why... because they want the "Treat specialer then christians" treatment

Just cause i'm a Jew It doesn't mean i'll start voting stupidly like most American Jews. Isralei Jews are also more Conservative BTW.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1015 on: June 09, 2009, 11:33:12 AM »

Alabama (Public Policy Polling)Sad

45% Approve
47% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 667 Alabama voters from June 2nd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_609.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1016 on: June 09, 2009, 11:42:14 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2009, 11:46:18 AM by pbrower2a »

Update:





The 58% approval for Obama in Alabama a few weeks ago now looks like an outlier.  But note that PPP, who related this poll, says that a 45% approval rating in a state that Obama got only 39% of the vote in is still a big gain.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1017 on: June 09, 2009, 11:51:45 AM »

Don't know what's up with SurveyUSA. They used to release their monthly approval polls by the end of each month and the May numbers are still missing ...

As for AL, Obama won't win it in 2012 ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1018 on: June 09, 2009, 12:20:08 PM »

Today's Gallup:

61% Approve (-1)
34% Disapprove (+2)

Probably the closest Rasmussen and Gallup have been for a while now ...
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Vepres
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« Reply #1019 on: June 09, 2009, 03:32:18 PM »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.

Yeah, I'm sure the Chrysler bailout killed him among youngsters. Roll Eyes

No, but if/when healthcare reform fails, and the national debt continues to rise, trust me, they'll defect. As a younger person myself, I can safely say most of the 14-17 year olds (future voters) don't really know what's going on and only support Obama because it's cool. These people will only have become politically aware in a world where Democrats control everything.

You can quote me on this, Obama will still win the youth in 2012 for sure (unless he's an epic failure), but the margin of victory relative to the national PV will be far lower.

The down turn in these polls probably has less to do with policy and more to do with the novelty of Obama waring off and reality setting in.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1020 on: June 09, 2009, 03:50:10 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2009, 12:01:22 AM by pbrower2a »

Current prediction -- for now. Alabama is definitely not a tossup.




Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


Much depends, of course, on who the GOP nominee will be.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1021 on: June 09, 2009, 04:19:34 PM »

Current prediction -- for now. Alabama is definitely not a tossup.




Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


Much depends, of course, on who the GOP nominee will be.

I still find it incredible that Obama has higher approvals in Tennessee than Colorado or Arizona.

By the way, what is your methodology. Do you take into account Obama's margin of victory in 2008?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1022 on: June 09, 2009, 06:11:57 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2009, 11:59:54 PM by pbrower2a »


I still find it incredible that Obama has higher approvals in Tennessee than Colorado or Arizona.

By the way, what is your methodology. Do you take into account Obama's margin of victory in 2008?

I have no algorithm which would give a more reliable methodology. I lack the computer power for one.

Only in the absence of a relevant poll (which could be of a neighboring state -- in the cases of Mississippi, Montana, and North Dakota -- not to mention the District of Columbia and NE-03)  or as a check in a marginal case. Such states as Maryland, Maine, Vermont, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, and Hawaii have to be shown as they voted in 2008, and in each case those are anything but marginal.  Let's remember that the 2008 election is not itself a reliable predictor of how states will vote in 2012. Think of Indiana in 2008: about everyone was surprised that it was close from summer 2008 on. Did the results of 2004 in Indiana mean anything then? Hardly! Virginia was much the same, and it too was a surprise. Slight positives for Utah and Kansas for Obama require that I temper any prediction with the intuitive: "No way does Obama win this state except under freakish circumstances". Well, if the GOP nominee says things disrespectful of the LDS Church, then Obama wins Utah; if the GOP nominee is an utter nutcase, Obama wins Kansas. 

My technique could work the other way, too.  If I noticed that Obama had an approval rating of 42% and a disapproval rating of  46% in Minnesota, then the fact that Obama had won the state by a double-digit margin in 2008 might not in itself cause me to believe that he would lose  Minnesota. But some states seem to move together because of political similarities -- with Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin suggest themselves, so if similar results start appearing in those states, one would have to wonder what constituencies he has been losing.       

Any new poll is now significantly more relevant to 2012 because it is newer and it reflects the perception of Obama as President. In 2012 he will be running on his record -- and not on his promises -- if he is at all effective. If he is doing badly as a President he will try to run from his record and it will catch up to him. We are eight months away from the 2008 election and nearly five months into his Presidency. We are 39 months away from  the 2012 electio.n

He seems to have lost nothing in the states that voted for him by a margin over 9%. Colorado is hard to figure, but the near 50-50 approval rating suggests trouble there. I would have thought that Obama has a very good chance of picking up Arizona because of the narrowness of McCain's win of the state, but the most recent poll does not so show things. Other states that were marginal wins (FL, IN, NC, OH, and NE-01) or marginal losses (MO, MT, ND, SD, and GA) and show big improvements. One good poll (for Obama) in Colorado could force him into a redder category on this map. Sure, I rate MT, ND, and SD as likely wins because of South Dakota showing a good poll (ND and SD usually move in tandem, and MT is usually a bit more Democratic than either Dakota) -- and that could change dramatically if I saw a bad poll (for Obama in any one of those three states.

I find big surprises in an inner arc of states that voted for Bill Clinton (LA, AR, TN, KY, and WV) but not for Gore, Kerry, or Obama, and in fact voting strongly against Obama in 2008. One of these would be a surprise, but all five? He's apparently doing better in those states than in Georgia. They all give positive approval ratings for Obama, who seems to have shown little effort to campaign in any of those states.  His style of campaign was not suited to those states as it was suited to more urban states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. Could it be that white Southerners couldn't relate to him? Could it be that they are far more deferential to a military record than Americans elsewhere? None of that will be relevant in 2012. In 2008 many assumed the worst about him, and in 2012 he will have established what sort of President he is. Maybe he has so established himself already. If he reminds people of Bill Clinton, then he wins the arc against anyone other than Huckabee.

I treat Arkansas as a tossup for one reason: Mike Huckabee, who could win Arkansas as a VP candidate, which he could do in no other state in the "Clinton Arc".

This projection is at most an early-warning signal. If a Republican figure were  looking at my map and saw that the GOP was beginning to have trouble in Texas, then that figure might want to do things to shift the political debate from something ineffective to something more effective. Another possible interpretation is to look long-term in hope that the GOP could wait out Obama popularity and make efforts at the grass-roots level -- like trying to form College Republican branches at universities whose student bodies might now be very liberal in voting patterns, seeking out potential dissidents from the Democratic Party, or targeting corrupt and ineffective machine politicians in big cities for defeat even if such requires promoting liberals as challengers. The GOP could reconstitute itself in some places as a "Clean Government" movement of would-be reformers even in such places as ... Detroit.


 
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Rowan
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« Reply #1023 on: June 10, 2009, 05:47:56 AM »

I have a better algorithm than what you are using, it's called common sense.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1024 on: June 10, 2009, 09:31:43 AM »

Florida (Quinnipiac University)Sad

58% Approve
35% Disapprove

62% Favorable
32% Unfavorable

From June 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,245 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 486 Republicans and 477 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311

New Jersey (Quinnipiac University)Sad

68% Approve
25% Disapprove

From June 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,338 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311
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