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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1044067 times)
Hoverbored123
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« Reply #9925 on: September 05, 2012, 01:18:28 am »

I expect whatever "bounce" the candidates get from the Conventions will disappear long before Election Day.  This can be explained by regression toward the mean: any sudden shift in the polls away from the general pattern will tend to correct itself over time.  Also, according to the CU professors' report, the location of the party's National Convention has no significant effect on which way an individual state votes.  So not only will the DNC not have any effect on the nationwide vote, it won't help Obama in Colorado either. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #9926 on: September 05, 2012, 09:48:28 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #9927 on: September 05, 2012, 01:11:27 pm »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 47% +2

Disapprove: 47% -1

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9928 on: September 05, 2012, 01:18:46 pm »

The convention bounce has begun!
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J. J.
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« Reply #9929 on: September 05, 2012, 01:33:08 pm »


Actually, if you would have read the numbers, you would have seen a 2-3 point slump for Obama on this poll.
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Beet
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« Reply #9930 on: September 05, 2012, 07:34:54 pm »


Actually, if you would have read the numbers, you would have seen a 2-3 point slump for Obama on this poll.

Where does Gallup post the single day results?
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J. J.
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« Reply #9931 on: September 05, 2012, 07:39:29 pm »


Actually, if you would have read the numbers, you would have seen a 2-3 point slump for Obama on this poll.

Where does Gallup post the single day results?

They don't, so far as I can tell.

This wasn't Romney gaining, however.  It was Obama sinking (and he recovered most of it).
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Beet
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« Reply #9932 on: September 05, 2012, 07:42:39 pm »


Actually, if you would have read the numbers, you would have seen a 2-3 point slump for Obama on this poll.

Where does Gallup post the single day results?

They don't, so far as I can tell.

This wasn't Romney gaining, however.  It was Obama sinking (and he recovered most of it).

I have no idea what you're even talking about any more.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9933 on: September 05, 2012, 07:45:31 pm »

You're not the only one.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9934 on: September 05, 2012, 08:25:17 pm »


Actually, if you would have read the numbers, you would have seen a 2-3 point slump for Obama on this poll.

Where does Gallup post the single day results?

They don't, so far as I can tell.

This wasn't Romney gaining, however.  It was Obama sinking (and he recovered most of it).

I have no idea what you're even talking about any more.

Beet, this not a horse race poll.  It is a favorable/unfavorable poll.  Obama's approval numbers dropped, on this poll, when the pre-convention started dropping out.  It did start to recover this week, when there was some distance from the RNC.  He's nearly recovered from it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9935 on: September 06, 2012, 09:09:48 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  44%, +1.


It could just be a bad sample.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9936 on: September 06, 2012, 09:37:02 am »

Gallup's weekly approval for Obama is 44%, which is the lowest since the second week of December 2011.  I suspect that this was due to the RNC and he will recover during this week.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9937 on: September 06, 2012, 12:02:02 pm »

Gallup

Approve- 49%
Disapprove-45%

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9938 on: September 06, 2012, 12:14:34 pm »

That's +2 approval and -2 disapproval from yesterday.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9939 on: September 06, 2012, 12:25:42 pm »



http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 49% +2

Disapprove: 45% -2

RNC bounce dropping out or a bad sample?


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J. J.
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« Reply #9940 on: September 07, 2012, 09:20:42 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  44%, u.


My guess is a bad sample dropped.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9941 on: September 07, 2012, 12:02:27 pm »

Gallup

Approve-52
Disapprove-43

Bill Clinton putting in work........
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9942 on: September 07, 2012, 12:56:34 pm »

when was the last time Obama's Gallup was over 50?  Not since OBL dead in May 2011?
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« Reply #9943 on: September 07, 2012, 01:39:16 pm »

Fun fact: George W. Bush's approval among adults also hit 52% after the 2004 Republican National Convention.

Caveat: "Adults" is a group more Democrat-leaning than registered voters, which is more Democrat-leaning than likely voters.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9944 on: September 07, 2012, 01:40:18 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2012, 01:43:10 pm by Lief »

The convention bump, IT HAS BEGUN!

As far as I can tell this is the highest Gallup has had him since he got that bump from killing Osama bin Laden.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9945 on: September 07, 2012, 02:22:43 pm »

I looked it up and Obama hasn't been at 52 since OBL dead, however there were two days in 2011 where he hit 51. He hasnt been over 50 for a sustained period since May 2011 so if this sticks, it will be significant
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #9946 on: September 07, 2012, 02:34:31 pm »

I looked it up and Obama hasn't been at 52 since OBL dead, however there were two days in 2011 where he hit 51. He hasnt been over 50 for a sustained period since May 2011 so if this sticks, it will be significant
June 24th 2012.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9947 on: September 07, 2012, 02:44:07 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2012, 02:47:22 pm by Invisible Voter »

sorry I mean two days in 2012 where he hit 51 for one day: May 3rd and June 24th.

Essentially starting in the summer of 2010 he has been in the 40s except for two periods where he had sustained 50+ rating: the lame duck session where they actually got some stuff done in late 2010 and Killing OBL in May 2011. Since then he has been stuck in the 40s for the most part.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9948 on: September 07, 2012, 04:35:13 pm »

The convention bump, IT HAS BEGUN!

As far as I can tell this is the highest Gallup has had him since he got that bump from killing Osama bin Laden.

Or a bad sample.

I'd prefer to wait 2-3 more days.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9949 on: September 07, 2012, 04:37:26 pm »

It was a +1/-1 shift in the horse race numbers today.
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