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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031009 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #9475 on: February 27, 2012, 03:20:24 pm »





Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, +1

Disapprove:  47%, +1


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J. J.
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« Reply #9476 on: February 27, 2012, 03:21:29 pm »

I tend to just mentally resolve all of these approval rating bounces to 'tie' these days.

Well, by tomorrow or Wednesday, we should know for sure.
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Nathan
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« Reply #9477 on: February 27, 2012, 08:12:38 pm »

I tend to just mentally resolve all of these approval rating bounces to 'tie' these days.

Well, by tomorrow or Wednesday, we should know for sure.

It's not a question of knowing for sure about any one poll so much as how they all seem to be clustered in that general 45-53 range but go off on their own weird little tracks within that.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9478 on: February 28, 2012, 10:00:55 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -2.


A moderately bad sample must be moving out.
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Nathan
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« Reply #9479 on: February 28, 2012, 02:06:39 pm »

Meanwhile Gallup is at 43-50, the lowest in...quite a while.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9480 on: February 28, 2012, 02:18:57 pm »



Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -2

Disapprove:  50%, +3



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diskymike44
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« Reply #9481 on: February 28, 2012, 03:55:43 pm »

This why i deleted the Gallup app on my iPhone lol gallup sucks
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J. J.
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« Reply #9482 on: February 28, 2012, 05:18:08 pm »

Meanwhile Gallup is at 43-50, the lowest in...quite a while.

Gallup is known for fluctuations.  The key number is the weekly number.  That 45% approval is fairly low.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9483 on: February 29, 2012, 12:12:32 am »

Meanwhile Gallup is at 43-50, the lowest in...quite a while.

Gallup is known for fluctuations.  The key number is the weekly number.  That 45% approval is fairly low.

Maybe Presidential numbers really do fluctuate wildly. Gas goes up; gas goes down.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9484 on: February 29, 2012, 09:29:34 am »

Meanwhile Gallup is at 43-50, the lowest in...quite a while.

Gallup is known for fluctuations.  The key number is the weekly number.  That 45% approval is fairly low.

Maybe Presidential numbers really do fluctuate wildly. Gas goes up; gas goes down.

No, they fluctuate over the week.  You have to look at the longer term numbers.  Those a reasonably stable.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9485 on: February 29, 2012, 09:36:31 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -1.


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J. J.
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« Reply #9486 on: February 29, 2012, 01:26:34 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, +2

Disapprove:  50%, u




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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9487 on: February 29, 2012, 08:17:13 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.
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Sbane
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« Reply #9488 on: February 29, 2012, 09:04:09 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9489 on: February 29, 2012, 09:06:35 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.

I think Bush was at 54% on election night as Clinton was in 1996.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #9490 on: February 29, 2012, 09:08:05 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.

I think Bush was at 54% on election night as Clinton was in 1996.

Umm....no. Which poll are you talking about, and it mostly certainly was not the average.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #9491 on: February 29, 2012, 09:08:24 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.

I think Bush was at 54% on election night as Clinton was in 1996.
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9492 on: February 29, 2012, 09:13:14 pm »

Early exit polls favor democrats by 10-15. I learned after 2004 not to listen to them or talk to anyone about them on election day. It's interesting you pointed that out. I can still remember going back from the polls and listening to Dick Morris talk about Kerry winning by 15 in states that he lost by 5-10 based on early exit polling. As soon as the results started I learned. Exit polls are accurate, but not early exit polls.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9493 on: February 29, 2012, 09:15:21 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

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sbane
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« Reply #9494 on: February 29, 2012, 09:18:48 pm »

Yeah, early exit polls are not the most accurate. Really, exit polls in general tend not to be very accurate. Went back and looked at Gallup and the weeks before the election Bush was jumping around from 48-51%. And one thing to look out for, and perhaps the reason why Gallup seems to be so unfriendly to Obama, is that Hispanics don't approve of the job he has done that much but at the end of the day will vote for him. Turnout could be something to look out for though.
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ajb
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« Reply #9495 on: February 29, 2012, 09:19:19 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Yes. The analogy breaks down because you don't have to be married, while we have to have a president. Obama can be re-elected at 46% approval, if his opponent is still less popular than he.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9496 on: February 29, 2012, 09:20:32 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9497 on: February 29, 2012, 09:33:26 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9498 on: February 29, 2012, 09:36:03 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9499 on: February 29, 2012, 09:44:26 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.
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