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March 06, 2021, 06:51:38 AM
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2012 Elections
The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (Read 1059922 times)
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8825 on:
September 08, 2011, 05:29:03 PM »
Quote from: Iosif on September 08, 2011, 02:38:29 PM
Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.
It is an analogy. Let me explain it to you:
Obama numbers go down. Bad
Obama numbers go up. Good
If you like Obama.
Von Kluck is like the bad numbers. When some thing is like something else it is called an
analogy
.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,941
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8826 on:
September 08, 2011, 05:31:47 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 05:29:03 PM
Quote from: Iosif on September 08, 2011, 02:38:29 PM
Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.
It is an analogy. Let me explain it to you:
Obama numbers go down. Bad
Obama numbers go up. Good
If you like Obama.
Von Kluck is like the bad numbers. When some thing is like something else it is called an
analogy
.
Nobody cares.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8827 on:
September 08, 2011, 05:36:34 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 08, 2011, 12:37:25 PM
Exactly 1 year ago, Obama's approval rating at Gallup was 44-48 and 41-58 at Rasmussen.
Not really any movement. I expect that his ratings go up a bit in the next week due to the speech and the 9/11 rememberings.
He was declining then.
For Obama, these numbers are positive, because it might be stopping the decline (hence von Kluck's turn).
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8828 on:
September 08, 2011, 05:37:57 PM »
Quote from: Refudiate on September 08, 2011, 05:31:47 PM
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 05:29:03 PM
Quote from: Iosif on September 08, 2011, 02:38:29 PM
Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.
It is an analogy. Let me explain it to you:
Obama numbers go down. Bad
Obama numbers go up. Good
If you like Obama.
Von Kluck is like the bad numbers. When some thing is like something else it is called an
analogy
.
Nobody cares.
You don't care that Obama's numbers are improving. Okay.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,395
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8829 on:
September 08, 2011, 08:11:37 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 05:29:03 PM
Obama numbers go down. Bad
Obama numbers go up. Good
Remarkable analysis. I never thought of it like that before.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8830 on:
September 08, 2011, 08:45:21 PM »
Quote from: King on September 08, 2011, 08:11:37 PM
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 05:29:03 PM
Obama numbers go down. Bad
Obama numbers go up. Good
If you like Obama.
Remarkable analysis. I never thought of it like that before.
You left out the key phase.
I was expecting Obama's numbers to crash at some point, but probably within the first two years of his term. Most presidents do, if they will be re-elected. By this point, however, they have started to improve. Every president has rebounded from his lows, even those that got slaughtered.
Until now, Obama was not improving; he wasn't even stable. He was just dropping. Now, the numbers have
finally
started to move up. It's not a lot, but it is the first sign.
You can use, "the wind shifted," "the tide is coming in," or "von Kluck has turned." but those are the analogy. In this analogy, von Kluck represents the sentiment against Obama.
Von Kluck in real life, 97 years ago this week, was leading the German 1st Army against the French. The original plan was for him to pass Paris to the north and attack it from the west. Because of numerous factors, he got north of Paris, but turned east of Paris; the French attacked his flank and he ended up retreating. It took the French a few days to figure out that he was turning.
Obama was (and still may be) in a trough, which his numbers declining. That
may
have changed today.
If you support Obama, and you do, you want von Kluck to turn this soon.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
Posts: 63,538
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8831 on:
September 08, 2011, 09:30:51 PM »
With his numbers, his obsessions, and his bizarre little rituals...
Logged
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8832 on:
September 08, 2011, 09:41:27 PM »
PPP
Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8833 on:
September 08, 2011, 09:51:41 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 08, 2011, 09:41:27 PM
PPP
Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago
Do you have a link?
Logged
The Professor
Rookie
Posts: 91
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8834 on:
September 08, 2011, 10:55:00 PM »
J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.
Logged
Iosif
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,609
Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8835 on:
September 08, 2011, 11:51:17 PM »
Quote from: The Professor on September 08, 2011, 10:55:00 PM
J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.
That. Is. BRILLIANT!
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8836 on:
September 09, 2011, 01:13:05 AM »
Quote from: The Professor on September 08, 2011, 10:55:00 PM
J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.
On a day we have flooding.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8837 on:
September 09, 2011, 08:36:51 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 42, -1.
Disapprove 56%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.
Pre-speech numbers, obviously.
Logged
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8838 on:
September 09, 2011, 12:08:03 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 09:51:41 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 08, 2011, 09:41:27 PM
PPP
Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago
Do you have a link?
http://twitter.com/#
!/ppppolls
Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50
Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.
Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,473
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8839 on:
September 09, 2011, 12:31:56 PM »
North Carolina Independents are very GOP-leaning anyway. McCain won them 60-39.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,283
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8840 on:
September 09, 2011, 02:03:22 PM »
«
Edited:
September 09, 2011, 02:07:43 PM
by
pbrower2a »
North Carolina Survey Results
Quote
You must be
logged in
to read this quote.
Poor approval rating, but President Obama apparently beats everyone but Perry (whom he ties) this time. Note that this comes before the "Ponzi scheme" description of Social Security. This model does not allow me to anticipate the consequences of a sudden incidence of "foot-in-the-mouth disease".
I am showing the results of a poll for Alabama (it is a favorability and not an approval poll that shows favorability in the high 30s.. I doubt that anyone will call me on my estimate that favorability in such an incidence is close enough to approval in this zone. President Obama loses to every Republican shown, and I doubt that anyone would have a problem with a guess that the Obama vote in Alabama will be effectively the percentage of the African-American vote. Bachmann isn't included. President Obama would lose the state by roughly 20% to either Perry or Romney, which suggests an approval rating at or below 40%. Alabama will go to the President only in a 45-state landslide.
Key:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval)
;
90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50% Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
Months (All polls are from 2011):
A - January G - July
B - February H - August
C - March I - September
D - April J - October
E - May K - November
F - June L - December
S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided.
Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.
Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.
Z- no recent poll
Or here:
MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(before any campaigning begins in earnest)
assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!
deep red Obama 10% margin or greater
63
medium red Obama, 5-9.9% margin
80
pale red Obama, margin under 5%
89
white too close to call (margin 1% or less)
63
pale blue Republican under 5%
73
medium blue Republican 5-9.9% margin
41
deep blue Republican over 10%
26
44% approval is roughly the break-even point (50/50) for an incumbent's win. I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.
This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.
Here's the rationale:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html
...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.
But --
I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.
I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white,
pale pink
, or pale blue
This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.
deep red Obama 10% margin or greater
54
medium red Obama, 5-9.9% margin
104
pale red Obama, margin under 5%
102
white too close to call (margin 1% or less)
18
yellow close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate
49
orange close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate
3
Obama wins against all but Romney
24
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else 41
close, but Obama wins against
someone
other than Romney
101
pale blue Republican under 5%
12
medium blue Republican 5-9.9% margin
9
deep blue Republican over 10%
35
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8841 on:
September 09, 2011, 02:42:05 PM »
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx
Gallup, meh:
Approve: 43%, -1.
Disapprove: 49%, -1.
These numbers are now showing a very good
trend
for Obama. He is off his low. It is possible that he'll sag at a later point, but if the numbers hold through Sunday, he has recovered. (Paris doesn't fall.)
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
Posts: 4,862
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8842 on:
September 09, 2011, 06:05:26 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 09, 2011, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 09:51:41 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 08, 2011, 09:41:27 PM
PPP
Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago
Do you have a link?
http://twitter.com/#
!/ppppolls
Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50
Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.
Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.
Stick that dumbass Perry on the bottom of the ticket and hope he never becomes president. Problem solved.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,525
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8843 on:
September 09, 2011, 10:13:15 PM »
Quote from: Politico on September 09, 2011, 06:05:26 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 09, 2011, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: J. J. on September 08, 2011, 09:51:41 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 08, 2011, 09:41:27 PM
PPP
Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago
Do you have a link?
http://twitter.com/#
!/ppppolls
Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50
Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.
Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.
Stick that dumbass Perry
in a roadside gas station
and hope he never becomes president. Problem solved.
Fixed.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8844 on:
September 10, 2011, 09:55:31 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 42, u.
Disapprove 55%, -1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8845 on:
September 11, 2011, 09:19:46 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 42, u.
Disapprove 55%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,473
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8846 on:
September 11, 2011, 12:53:51 PM »
Gallup:
42-48 (-1, nc)
No speech bump so far.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8847 on:
September 11, 2011, 03:09:41 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2011, 12:53:51 PM
Gallup:
42-48 (-1, nc)
No speech bump so far.
But they have turned off the lows. Obama might slump again, but, for now, he's improving.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8848 on:
September 12, 2011, 11:53:52 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 44, +2.
Disapprove 55%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.
Possibly some movement toward Obama.
Logged
I'm a John Fetterman (or Malcolm Kenyatta) Democrat
20RP12
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,872
Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.61
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8849 on:
September 12, 2011, 05:30:54 PM »
Quote from: The Professor on September 08, 2011, 10:55:00 PM
J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.
Wait hold on I'm still laughing at this.
Logged
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