The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Aquatic Ambience
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #8350 on: July 30, 2011, 01:55:37 AM »

What is wrong with Gallup? Their erratic numbers are really unprofessional.
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Penelope
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« Reply #8351 on: July 30, 2011, 02:04:23 AM »

What is wrong with Gallup? Their erratic numbers are really unprofessional.

Considering the circumstances, nothing seems that off to me.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8352 on: July 30, 2011, 08:50:49 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

This could be just statistical noise.  There has been a slight drop-off since 7/14-7/16, but not a major one.  He is not at historic lows on Rasmussen, though he is getting closer to it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8353 on: July 30, 2011, 12:03:05 PM »

Gallup:

40% Approve (nc)
52% Disapprove (+2)
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J. J.
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« Reply #8354 on: July 30, 2011, 08:52:47 PM »

Gallup:

40% Approve (nc)
52% Disapprove (+2)

Well, it is Gallup, which was off in the last election.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8355 on: July 31, 2011, 09:43:15 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

Statistical noise. 
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8356 on: July 31, 2011, 10:13:32 AM »

gallup prediction: Obama meets the 30s for first time on his 50th.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8357 on: July 31, 2011, 05:40:55 PM »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  41, +1

Disapprove:  52, u.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8358 on: August 01, 2011, 09:17:58 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

That was easy.  Smiley

There was a drop in Obama's numbers beginning on 7/16, but it is small drop and not a free fall.
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CJK
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« Reply #8359 on: August 01, 2011, 12:26:57 PM »

Obama Approval Rating July 2011 (Gallup):

44% Approve

48% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 54/39 (July 1939)

Truman: 61/28 (July 1947) AND 29/54 (July 1951)*

Eisenhower: 72/18 (July 1955)

Kennedy: 61/27 (July 1963)

Johnson: 47/39 (July 1967)*

Nixon: 50/36 (July 1971)

Ford: No poll, was 52/34 in June 1975

Carter: 29/59 (July 1979)

Reagan: 43/45 (July 1983)

Bush I: 71/21 (July 1991)

Clinton: 47/43 (July 1995)

Bush II: 60/37 (July 2003)

*Was eligible to run next year, but later decided not to.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8360 on: August 01, 2011, 01:27:56 PM »

MA (MassInc Polling Group):

57% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

About the poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from July 27-30, 2011.  The margin of sampling error is 4.4%.

http://031d482.netsolhost.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MPG-Trend-Monitor-Q3-2011.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #8361 on: August 01, 2011, 02:34:10 PM »


Gallup, meh:

Approve:  43, +2

Disapprove:  50, -2.

If you don't like the Gallup numbers, just wait a couple of days.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8362 on: August 01, 2011, 02:40:42 PM »


Gallup, meh:

Approve:  43, +2

Disapprove:  50, -2.

If you don't like the Gallup numbers, just wait a couple of days.


Is Gallup's track record so much worse than Rassie?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8363 on: August 01, 2011, 03:24:59 PM »


Gallup, meh:

Approve:  43, +2

Disapprove:  50, -2.

If you don't like the Gallup numbers, just wait a couple of days.


That's how Gallup goes. The budgetary process in any form is quite possibly the ugliest stage of politics, the one in which few people make friends. The debt-ceiling debate  is a prime example. When it goes smoothly, nobody seems to pay much attention. When things get polarized,  then watch out.

Count on unemployment to remain high through 2012. Democrats will surely need to offer a stimulus.

MA (MassInc Polling Group):

57% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

About the poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from July 27-30, 2011.  The margin of sampling error is 4.4%.

http://031d482.netsolhost.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MPG-Trend-Monitor-Q3-2011.pdf

Favorable/unfavorable -- not usable.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #8364 on: August 01, 2011, 03:26:57 PM »

Count on unemployment to remain high through 2012. Democrats will surely need to offer a stimulus.

LOL. Obama just signed on to massive spending cuts as part of the debt ceiling compromise. What kind of stimulus you think you're going to get out of that?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8365 on: August 01, 2011, 03:38:15 PM »

Count on unemployment to remain high through 2012. Democrats will surely need to offer a stimulus.

LOL. Obama just signed on to massive spending cuts as part of the debt ceiling compromise. What kind of stimulus you think you're going to get out of that?

2013... assuming that the President is re-elected and that the Democrats keep the Senate and gain the House. Democrats will have to make that promise. What will Republicans have to offer? Pay cuts? Further tax cuts for the super-rich? Privatization of Social Security and Medicare?

Mitt Romney did the perfect job of staying aloof from the debate on the debt ceiling... which is about like some draft dodger bragging about having been 'above' the war. We shall see soon enough how that plays in Peoria... among other places.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #8366 on: August 01, 2011, 03:43:24 PM »

2013... assuming that the President is re-elected and that the Democrats keep the Senate and gain the House. Democrats will have to make that promise. What will Republicans have to offer? Pay cuts? Further tax cuts for the super-rich? Privatization of Social Security and Medicare?

Well, here's what Romney offered in 2008:

  • A cut in the top corporate rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, phased in over two years.
  • Cutting the lowest individual income tax bracket to 7.5 percent from 10 percent. To provide immediate spending money for those with moderate incomes, he would make that reduction retroactively applicable to the previous year's income for taxpayers earning less than $97,500.
  • Permanently eliminating Social Security payroll taxes for workers over age 65.
  • Temporarily permitting businesses to deduct 100 percent of the cost of investments for two years.
  • Eliminating capital gains and dividend taxes for taxpayers earning under $200,000 a year.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8367 on: August 01, 2011, 03:53:32 PM »

2013... assuming that the President is re-elected and that the Democrats keep the Senate and gain the House. Democrats will have to make that promise. What will Republicans have to offer? Pay cuts? Further tax cuts for the super-rich? Privatization of Social Security and Medicare?

Well, here's what Romney offered in 2008:

  • A cut in the top corporate rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, phased in over two years.
  • Cutting the lowest individual income tax bracket to 7.5 percent from 10 percent. To provide immediate spending money for those with moderate incomes, he would make that reduction retroactively applicable to the previous year's income for taxpayers earning less than $97,500.
  • Permanently eliminating Social Security payroll taxes for workers over age 65.
  • Temporarily permitting businesses to deduct 100 percent of the cost of investments for two years.
  • Eliminating capital gains and dividend taxes for taxpayers earning under $200,000 a year.

This is no longer 2008.  High unemployment is going to require a fresh, large stimulus -- and tax cuts will not do the trick.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8368 on: August 01, 2011, 04:11:22 PM »

http://people-press.org/2011/08/01/public-sees-budget-negotiations-as-%E2%80%9Cridiculous%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%9Cdisgusting%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%9Cstupid/


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In essence, we were all had. See how that does in polling done beginning this weekend.
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« Reply #8369 on: August 01, 2011, 06:18:53 PM »

2013... assuming that the President is re-elected and that the Democrats keep the Senate and gain the House. Democrats will have to make that promise. What will Republicans have to offer? Pay cuts? Further tax cuts for the super-rich? Privatization of Social Security and Medicare?

Well, here's what Romney offered in 2008:

  • A cut in the top corporate rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, phased in over two years.
  • Cutting the lowest individual income tax bracket to 7.5 percent from 10 percent. To provide immediate spending money for those with moderate incomes, he would make that reduction retroactively applicable to the previous year's income for taxpayers earning less than $97,500.
  • Permanently eliminating Social Security payroll taxes for workers over age 65.
  • Temporarily permitting businesses to deduct 100 percent of the cost of investments for two years.
  • Eliminating capital gains and dividend taxes for taxpayers earning under $200,000 a year.

This is no longer 2008.  High unemployment is going to require a fresh, large stimulus -- and tax cuts will not do the trick.

It's Mitt Romney, the flip-flopping is implied. Although, campaigning on tax rises won't exactly make the primaries a walk for him.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8370 on: August 02, 2011, 07:19:16 AM »

Disaster for the President in Pernnsylvania:
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If Pennsylvania is the "real" political reality for America, then the Hard Right will be consolidating complete power in America in November 2012. Things will change in the next couple of weeks, perhaps in ways that few can predict. It is arguable that every poll before today has become obsolete.


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 67
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 34
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 41
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  15
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  


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J. J.
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« Reply #8371 on: August 02, 2011, 08:39:34 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8372 on: August 02, 2011, 11:30:31 AM »

CNN:

45% Approve, 52% Disapprove

Interviews with 860 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 1, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The sample includes 716 interviews among landline respondents and 144 interviews among cell phone respondents.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/02/rel12a.pdf

PPP:

46% Approve, 48% Disapprove - 50% Favorable, 44% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, July 28, 2011 - July 31, 2011

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/7/28
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8373 on: August 02, 2011, 12:09:38 PM »

Gallup is also normalizing a bit:

43% Approve
48% Disapprove
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J. J.
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« Reply #8374 on: August 03, 2011, 09:09:05 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.


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