The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

PPP/DailyKos/SEIU Weekly Poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

49% Approve
46% Disapprove

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

51% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

Generally speaking if there was an election today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama, or would you vote for his Republican opponent?

49% Obama
44% Republican

Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not at all excited about voting in the 2012 elections?

50% Very Excited (Democrats: 56%, Republicans: 53%, Independents: 38%)
29% Somewhat Excited (Democrats: 27%, Republicans: 28%, Independents: 32%)
21% Not at all excited (Democrats: 17%, Republicans: 19%, Independents: 30%)

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, May 19, 2011 - May 22, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/5/19

[Tender Branson]

American Research Group:

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

5/17-20/11; 1,100 likely voters, 2.6% margin of error, Mode: Live telephone interviews

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/23/us-obama-approval-49-appr_n_865716.html

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51, +2.

Disapprove 48%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.

[Tender Branson]

Texas (University of Texas/Texas Tribune)

35% Approve
55% Disapprove

This latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll is an internet survey of 800 registered voters. It was conducted May 11 to 18 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent. The Republican primary questions have a margin of error of +/-4.98 percent; the Democratic primary questions have a margin of error of +/-6.17 percent.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-presidential-election/perrys-not-the-texas-frontrunner-uttt-poll-finds/

[Tender Branson]

Great Britain:

"Barack Obama is proving to be a good President of the United States"

60% Agree
14% Disagree

"Barack Obama is doing a better job than his predecessor George W Bush did"

70% Agree
  8% Disagree

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2028 GB adults online between 20th and 22nd May 2011.  Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

http://www.comres.co.uk/itvnewsobamapoll23may11.aspx

[pbrower2a]

Ohio, Texas updates:

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Mike Huckabee and The Donald, who have apparently dropped out of consideration, are not included in this poll. Although the poll shows a sample of prospective voters who voted more for John McCain than for Barack Obama in 2008 (Obama won, of course, which is not shown in this sample), President Obama would win re-election against any imaginable Republican nominee. PPP notes that his margin against Mitt Romney is about the same as that against John McCain in 2008.

The new Senator from Ohio is yet to make much of an impression, but it isn't a good first impression. Rob Portman has his work cut out for him

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Much can change in five years,  but Rob Portman shows few signs of being an up-and-coming leader in the Senate., in case anyone is interested.   Nothing is said of the Governor, but it was well said the last time.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0524513.pdf

Texas update (Texas Tribune, University of Texas):

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The Governor isn't doing very well any more, but that relates to a different map:

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http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-201105-summary-day2.pdf

No real change.

Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 54
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 60
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

[You kip if you want to...]

Great Britain:

"Barack Obama is proving to be a good President of the United States"

60% Agree
14% Disagree

"Barack Obama is doing a better job than his predecessor George W Bush did"

70% Agree
  8% Disagree

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2028 GB adults online between 20th and 22nd May 2011.  Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

http://www.comres.co.uk/itvnewsobamapoll23may11.aspx

Europe will love BHO unless he rapes a baby or starts another war.

[Penelope]

Gallup back at 51-42.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, -1.

Disapprove 48%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, u.

[exopolitician]

Texas (University of Texas/Texas Tribune)

35% Approve
55% Disapprove

This latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll is an internet survey of 800 registered voters. It was conducted May 11 to 18 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent. The Republican primary questions have a margin of error of +/-4.98 percent; the Democratic primary questions have a margin of error of +/-6.17 percent.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-presidential-election/perrys-not-the-texas-frontrunner-uttt-poll-finds/

Texas fail.

[J. J.]

Great Britain:

"Barack Obama is proving to be a good President of the United States"

60% Agree
14% Disagree

"Barack Obama is doing a better job than his predecessor George W Bush did"

70% Agree
  8% Disagree

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2028 GB adults online between 20th and 22nd May 2011.  Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

http://www.comres.co.uk/itvnewsobamapoll23may11.aspx

Europe will love BHO unless he rapes a baby or starts another war.

How many electoral votes does Berwick-Upon-Tweed have?

[Bull Moose Base]

Gallup 53.  Highest in a year.

[anvi]

How many electoral votes does Berwick-Upon-Tweed have?

None.
But having a president who is well-liked internationally is an asset for any country.

[J. J.]

How many electoral votes does Berwick-Upon-Tweed have?

None.
But having a president who is well-liked internationally is an asset for any country.

Tell it Edvard Benes.

[Lief 🗽]

How many electoral votes does Berwick-Upon-Tweed have?

None.
But having a president who is well-liked internationally is an asset for any country.

Tell it Edvard Benes.

I very much doubt that the United States will be turned into a protectorate and have a significant amount of its territory annexed OR endure a communist coup any time soon.

[anvi]

How many electoral votes does Berwick-Upon-Tweed have?

None.
But having a president who is well-liked internationally is an asset for any country.

Tell it Edvard Benes.

Yeah, you're right.  America should have presidents whose allies revile them.

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (FDU)

55% (+8) Approve
36%  (-6) Disapprove

Among Republicans Obama’s approval rating increased by a third to 21 percent  from 16 percent, while Democrats approval of the president increased by 9 points to 82 percent from 73 percent.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 804 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from May 16 through May 22, 2011, and has a margin of error of+/-3.5 percentage points.

http://wayne.patch.com/articles/jerseys-loving-obama-are-you-6

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, u.

Disapprove 48%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, u.

[J. J.]

How many electoral votes does Berwick-Upon-Tweed have?

None.
But having a president who is well-liked internationally is an asset for any country.

Tell it Edvard Benes.

Yeah, you're right.  America should have presidents whose allies revile them.

Being respected by other countries didn't help Carter, Nixon or GHW Bush.  Being "reviled" didn't hurt Reagan or GW Bush, domestically.

Frankly, being widely "reviled" internationally didn't hurt De Gaulle, either.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Florida

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1605

It's likely that Florida is just more R than the national average, but the unique demographics of this state could distort things this time. The Republican nominee will absolutely need this state. Mitt Romney can't win this state against this approval rating, and I can easily see the deep green shades on the map for Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania vanishing at the next poll for any one of those states in view of this Florida result.  

Wisconsin:

It looks like a slip from the March poll by Rasmussen that happened during the hottest debate over the conduct of the Governor. This is more a technical adjustment than anything else. If Wisconsin is a 'swing state' in 2012, then the appropriate metaphor is that  the swinging door is hitting Republican pols in the derriere.

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This is still with a sample more R than the voters of 2008.

A symptom of GOP trouble in Wisconsin:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0525930.pdf



Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   120
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 54
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   120
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 60
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

[anvi]

Being respected by other countries didn't help Carter, Nixon or GHW Bush.  Being "reviled" didn't hurt Reagan or GW Bush, domestically.

Frankly, being widely "reviled" internationally didn't hurt De Gaulle, either.

Being respected buy other countries did help Carter secure the peace between Israel and Egypt as well as fully normalize relations with China.  It helped Nixon open relations with China.  It helped GHW Bush enormously in putting together the Gulf War coalition and helping facilitate an end to the Cold War.  Being reviled didn't help Reagan internationally, and since foreign policy is largely the president's concern, this is significant, until his second term, when diplomacy played a much more significant role.  I would argue that something similar could be said of the presidency of George W. Bush.  What shows up in domestic polls on any given month is far from the the only thing that matters in a presidency. 

[Yelnoc]

pBrower, can you remind me what advantages you give to Obama (because of his incumbent status).

[pbrower2a]

pBrower, can you remind me what advantages you give to Obama (because of his incumbent status).

Incumbency cannot save the mistake of the previous election who has proved less than up to the job, the one who endures diplomatic or economic debacles, the one who became President without ever having been elected to even statewide office, the one with few achievements that people can pin down, or the fellow whose agenda is fully accomplished with no possibility of a coherent program for a Second Act. 8 of 13 incumbent Presidents seeking re-election were re-elected; five weren't. To be sure, the most marginal re-election (Dubya) got away with what he got away with, but even he knew how to get his campaign apparatus in gear.

So what advantage does an incumbent have?

1. He has won the office before, which may not be so much an indication that he will win again as it is that he knows how to campaign if he must. Such is an advantage for an incumbent over a challenger in most races. If he never won a campaign for high office, then he isn't in high office as an incumbent. Gerald Ford is the obvious exception.

2. Incumbents either run on their records and win or run from those records and lose. This President has a record to run on.

3. The President may be no more adept a campaigner in 2012 than in 2008 -- but he can easily get a campaign out of mothballs little the worse for wear.  The conflicting loyalties that often exist in a challenger's campaign apparatus just won't be there. People on the campaign will have much the same message and won't confuse people.

2016 will be very different for the Democrats because there will be no obvious successor.  That should be obvious. 

[Yelnoc]

pBrower, can you remind me what advantages you give to Obama (because of his incumbent status).

Incumbency cannot save the mistake of the previous election who has proved less than up to the job, the one who endures diplomatic or economic debacles, the one who became President without ever having been elected to even statewide office, the one with few achievements that people can pin down, or the fellow whose agenda is fully accomplished with no possibility of a coherent program for a Second Act. 8 of 13 incumbent Presidents seeking re-election were re-elected; five weren't. To be sure, the most marginal re-election (Dubya) got away with what he got away with, but even he knew how to get his campaign apparatus in gear.

So what advantage does an incumbent have?

1. He has won the office before, which may not be so much an indication that he will win again as it is that he knows how to campaign if he must. Such is an advantage for an incumbent over a challenger in most races. If he never won a campaign for high office, then he isn't in high office as an incumbent. Gerald Ford is the obvious exception.

2. Incumbents either run on their records and win or run from those records and lose. This President has a record to run on.

3. The President may be no more adept a campaigner in 2012 than in 2008 -- but he can easily get a campaign out of mothballs little the worse for wear.  The conflicting loyalties that often exist in a challenger's campaign apparatus just won't be there. People on the campaign will have much the same message and won't confuse people.

2016 will be very different for the Democrats because there will be no obvious successor.  That should be obvious. 

Thanks.  Now how exactly do you add percentage points to the state approval ratings?

[pbrower2a]

pBrower, can you remind me what advantages you give to Obama (because of his incumbent status).

Incumbency cannot save the mistake of the previous election who has proved less than up to the job, the one who endures diplomatic or economic debacles, the one who became President without ever having been elected to even statewide office, the one with few achievements that people can pin down, or the fellow whose agenda is fully accomplished with no possibility of a coherent program for a Second Act. 8 of 13 incumbent Presidents seeking re-election were re-elected; five weren't. To be sure, the most marginal re-election (Dubya) got away with what he got away with, but even he knew how to get his campaign apparatus in gear.

So what advantage does an incumbent have?

1. He has won the office before, which may not be so much an indication that he will win again as it is that he knows how to campaign if he must. Such is an advantage for an incumbent over a challenger in most races. If he never won a campaign for high office, then he isn't in high office as an incumbent. Gerald Ford is the obvious exception.

2. Incumbents either run on their records and win or run from those records and lose. This President has a record to run on.

3. The President may be no more adept a campaigner in 2012 than in 2008 -- but he can easily get a campaign out of mothballs little the worse for wear.  The conflicting loyalties that often exist in a challenger's campaign apparatus just won't be there. People on the campaign will have much the same message and won't confuse people.

2016 will be very different for the Democrats because there will be no obvious successor.  That should be obvious. 

Thanks.  Now how exactly do you add percentage points to the state approval ratings?

It's from a piece by Nate Silver. He is usually right.

6% is roughly the gain that a typical Senator or Governor, and maybe an at-large Congressional Representative gains in vote share during a campaign once the incumbent is in campaign mode. That is an average. Some do better; some don't do so well. That assumes an "average" challenger, no third-party challenge, no breaking scandal, average economic conditions, and reasonable competence as a campaigner. This applies to incumbents with approval from the mid 30s to the mid 60s. Those with approval ratings below the mid 30s almost never run for re-election.  

I would have expected reversion to the mean -- basically that all incumbent politicians tend toward 50%. But those with 50% or higher approval usually gain. They still campaign, and they usually add about 6% from approval to vote share. This applies just as much to Jon Huntsman (really high) or Rick Santorum in 2006 (disaster). Santorum was in deep trouble from the winter of 2006, but he actually gained a little in his effort to get re-elected. He still got creamed. 44% approval suggests about a 50% chance of winning by getting 50% of the relevant votes cast. Chances drop off dramatically for those whose approval ratings are below 44% and rise to near 100% for those with higher percentages of approval.  

Of course it is possible for an incumbent to have 50% approval and lose if everything goes wrong, as for George Allen in 2006. He had an unusually-strong opponent, he had his "macaca" moment, and his staffers beat up a heckler... so if anyone wants an example of how to lose what should be a sure hold of elective office, then there it is.

Now for the Presidency -- a 44% approval rating suggests about a 50% chance of getting 50% or more of the total relevant votes -- again an estimate by Nate Silver on far fewer data points.  There are fewer Presidents running for re-election. Nationwide gains for the President are likely muted because Wyoming isn't exactly Vermont.

Here's how I model the general campaign. Incumbent Presidents obviously never win more than 62% of the popular vote, so if President Obama has an approval rating of 56% eleven months from now, he is not going to have the biggest landslide ever in the percentage of popular vote. Dubya had what looked like poor approval ratings in April 2004 -- mid forties, as I recall -- yet he still won. Hardly anyone confuses him with John Kennedy for charisma or Ronald Reagan as a communicator. Yet he won.  

Now for the States. If a Governor or Senator doesn't campaign outside his own state he typically still has the habit of campaigning. But Presidential candidates and their campaign teams have limited resources that they must use judiciously let they waste them. So let's say the approval ratings are like this for  President Obama in August 2012:  

Oklahoma 33%
Texas       40%
Arizona     45%
Missouri    47%
Ohio         50%
Iowa        52%
Maine       56%
Oregon     59%
Maryland  66%

I'm not saying that that is where the approvals will be. So where will the President make campaign appearances and where will his campaign buy advertising time?

He probably never had a chance in Oklahoma or Texas, so those are out of consideration and probably have been for some time.  Maryland, Oregon, and now Maine are probably done deals,  and there is no obvious purpose to trying to win 65-70% of the vote in those states. Arizona? Less than two months away from the election and not the deciding state, it probably gets abandoned. The buys of air time stop and the personal appearances go elsewhere.

Missouri is still tempting, but at that point the President may have other concerns than flipping a state that he barely lost in 2008.  Iowa is close to being a sure thing, but not quite there. Ohio... Ohio... Ohio...    

But back to the time when the campaigning begins. There can be surprises. But all in all he is unlikely to turn a 38% approval rating in one state into a 50% vote share, and it is pointless for him to try to turn a 67% approval rating into 70% of the vote. Think of the Presidency as 50 state races, a district-wide race in DC, and five Congressional races. Some races will get more attention than others because they might decide between victory and defeat. I mute the effect for those states in which the President's approval rating is above 45% and figure that any state in which he has an approval above 52% is not a likely loss. Sure, a state with an approval rating in the mid-fifties can get shaky... but the model gives plenty of potential for a rebound. A state with an approval rating between 40% and 47% will at least be tempting. Below 40%? Don't bother.