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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031411 times)
Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #7800 on: May 03, 2011, 10:53:51 pm »

Well of course the rating on the economy is not going to show any difference!  Unless people were somehow thinking that killing Bin Laden would somehow create jobs.
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #7801 on: May 03, 2011, 11:26:44 pm »

i really do think there are two battling undercurrents within obamas bump, or lack thereof:

1)  one is the victory of killing OBL and the very cool manner in which it was done
2)  the realization that all our efforts and all our PC hasnt done a thing to bring the Muslim street into the fold of civil civilizations.  In fact, the lack of joy within the Muslim world over the death of OBL, coupled with the failed Green revolution in Iran, and the Arab Spring, has made more and more Americans realize that we were never going to be able to win over their hearts and minds.

and, remember, it was only a very few weeks ago that the press was embracing Islam and painting Christians as the tyrants, which shocked a lot of Americans.

So, Obamas approval may be somewhat wide, but in many places, its an inch deep, and the shallower the water, the faster it flows - it wouldnt take much imagination to think up a geopolitical event that would drive Obamas rating into the mid 30's
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #7802 on: May 04, 2011, 12:02:06 am »

Bump? Zilch.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-03/obama-approval-numbers-after-bin-laden-kill/#

ECONOMY HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?
BEFORE:      Right, 31%, Wrong, 56%
AFTER:         Right, 27%, Wrong 60%

Usually you're kind of disingenuous but you're taking it to new levels here.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7803 on: May 04, 2011, 01:25:00 am »

I think we really have to wait a few more days. I agree with Chuck Todd on that.

https://twitter.com/#!/chucktodd/status/65454560709316608

By the way, Newsweek polls tend to be trash, Krazen.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7804 on: May 04, 2011, 01:27:18 am »

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/05/03/huge_audience_for_obama_speech.html

56.5 million watched Obama's speech on Sunday night... making it his highest rated speech ever (unsurprisingly).
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TXsaff
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« Reply #7805 on: May 04, 2011, 04:53:39 am »

He won't win re-election because he killed OBL. It's not a campaign issue. It's not something the electorate cares about enough.

I love how now its not a campaign issue anymore, despite the fact he was the mastermind behind 9/11 and we have been hunting the bastard for a decade. The electorate doesnt care anymore? The millions who celebrated his death and have been waiting for this moment for years would like to have a word with you.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7806 on: May 04, 2011, 07:19:35 am »

CBS/New York Times checks in with their generally less than stellar poll:

Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 37%

Approval is +11% and disapproval is -8% from their last poll.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/us/politics/0505poll-data.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7807 on: May 04, 2011, 07:31:07 am »

CBS/New York Times checks in with their generally less than stellar poll:

Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 37%

Approval is +11% and disapproval is -8% from their last poll.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/us/politics/0505poll-data.pdf

Sometimes the flawed polls catch things that 'better' polls miss -- timing can be everything. No statewide polls yet show the results of the demise of OBL; they go only about as far as the presentation of the Ryan budget.   
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7808 on: May 04, 2011, 07:52:28 am »
« Edited: May 04, 2011, 07:59:54 am by krazen1211 »

Well of course the rating on the economy is not going to show any difference!  Unless people were somehow thinking that killing Bin Laden would somehow create jobs.

Click the link and read the whole thing. He's got better ratings on terrorism and worse ratings on the economy. No surprise, really.
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badger
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« Reply #7809 on: May 04, 2011, 08:21:53 am »


no, what is going on is that is youre a Jimmy Carter type, one-off military successes dont really help you that much because few believe youre a strong war time leader and many think you are naive...at the other end of the spectrum, if you're a General Patton type, you get the full benefit of military success.

Obama is more like Carter than Patton, so he doesn't get much of a bump from a single event, even when he hits a home run....Bush43 was closer to Patton, so he got a bigger bump when Saddam was caught.

IMO

This entire post is pure 'point and laugh' hillarious.
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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #7810 on: May 04, 2011, 08:25:26 am »

Well of course the rating on the economy is not going to show any difference!  Unless people were somehow thinking that killing Bin Laden would somehow create jobs.

Click the link and read the whole thing. He's got better ratings on terrorism and worse ratings on the economy. No surprise, really.

He deserves higher ratings regarding his actions against terrorism.  Unfortunately for him, the economy will determine the election.  Not to say of course, that the economy can't turn around some by the election.  In that case, I doubt he'd have much problem getting reelected.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7811 on: May 04, 2011, 08:36:41 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?

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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #7812 on: May 04, 2011, 08:38:11 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?



Margin of error?
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J. J.
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« Reply #7813 on: May 04, 2011, 08:50:18 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?



Margin of error?

I'd expect a solid post OBL death number in that sample, much more pro Obama.  Bad sample maybe.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7814 on: May 04, 2011, 08:53:38 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?



Margin of error?

I'd expect a solid post OBL death number in that sample, much more pro Obama.  Bad sample maybe.

Maybe people are starting to miss Osama.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7815 on: May 04, 2011, 09:02:55 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?

/quote]

Indeed. Even I expected better numbers for Obama than this.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #7816 on: May 04, 2011, 09:48:31 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?



lol.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7817 on: May 04, 2011, 12:28:01 pm »

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.
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Donald Trumpís Hair
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« Reply #7818 on: May 04, 2011, 12:41:50 pm »

He's now refusing to release pictures. I expect his poll numbers to drop faster than they would have because of this. Whether you agree or disagree with the decision, it'll be interesting to see how it's reflected in the polls.
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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #7819 on: May 04, 2011, 01:26:01 pm »

He's now refusing to release pictures. I expect his poll numbers to drop faster than they would have because of this. Whether you agree or disagree with the decision, it'll be interesting to see how it's reflected in the polls.

Get ready for Trump to say he faked it, to just have him eventually release the photos anyway.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7820 on: May 04, 2011, 01:43:35 pm »

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

Is that the tracking poll? If so, that is quite a bit of movement.
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Smash255
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« Reply #7821 on: May 04, 2011, 01:47:50 pm »

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

Is that the tracking poll? If so, that is quite a bit of movement.

Its the tracking, it was 46-45 prior to the death of OBL, so so far its +4 approval, -3 disapproval.  1/3 of the tracking poll is still prior to OBL's death (the first tracking poll that will be completely after his  death will be tomorrow.

Rasmussen's #'s are very strange to say the least, could be a bad sample, perhaps he had a very strong sample on Sat falling off, and a poor one on Sunday still there.  Similar to Gallup, the first tracking poll taken completely after OBL's death wil be released tomorrow, but the numbers are still strange.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7822 on: May 04, 2011, 01:56:11 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?

Rasmussen strongly re-weighted their sample targets in favor of the GOP for May:

Rasmussen always re-weights their targets at the beginning of the month, by using an average of party ID of the previous month.

The March sample (which started on April 1) was: 34.0% GOP, 35.3% DEM, 30.7% IND

But the April sample (which started on May 1) was: 34.8% GOP, 33.5% DEM, 31.7% IND

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

...

So, Rasmussen really wants us to believe that there would be more Republicans turning out right now than Democrats, despite the fact that in the 2010 elections, Democrats and Republicans were equally strong in turnout.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7823 on: May 04, 2011, 01:58:45 pm »

Rasmussen = hard-weighted
Gallup = not weighted

And there you have it.  Though really the top of the bounce will likely be one week from the event, so wait.

Anyone listening to CBS polling, Newsweek polling or one-day polling needs to be banned from this forum immediately.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7824 on: May 04, 2011, 02:01:05 pm »

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

No, but it is a five point shift.  I'd expect to see that.
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