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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031078 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #7775 on: May 03, 2011, 12:03:50 am »

A few SurveyUSA instant polls are out:

State of Washington

55% Approve (+6 since End April)
40% Disapprove (-7)

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose DMA

67% Approve
27% Disapprove

Los Angeles DMA

62% Approve
32% Disapprove

New York DMA

59% Approve
35% Disapprove

Fresno-Visalia DMA

51% Approve
42% Disapprove

Tampa-Saint Petersburg (Sarasota) DMA

48% Approve
48% Disapprove

San Diego DMA

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

Wichita-Hutchinson Plus DMA

35% Approve
56% Disapprove

Considering SUSA's conservative polls about Obama so far, I'd say he get's to about 58% in most national polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7776 on: May 03, 2011, 01:06:47 am »

A few SurveyUSA instant polls are out:

State of Washington

55% Approve (+6 since End April)
40% Disapprove (-7)

In an Elway poll for Washington State, conducted April 25-27, Obama's rating was 39% Excellent/Good and 59% Fair/Poor.

http://publicola.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Elway-Poll-050211-OBAMA.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7777 on: May 03, 2011, 01:17:50 am »

LA (Southern Media and Opinion Research, April 19-23):

40% Excellent/Good
58% Not So Good/Poor

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/SPRING-2011-LOUISIANA-VOTER-SURVEY-RESULTS.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7778 on: May 03, 2011, 08:41:01 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

While no "bin Laden Bounce" at this point, the Strongly Disapprove number is tied for the lowest since February 2011.

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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7779 on: May 03, 2011, 08:59:46 am »

I'm a bit shocked that there aren't any new non-tracking polls out yet. You'd think the media would be ordering polls left and right these days.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7780 on: May 03, 2011, 11:02:47 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

While no "bin Laden Bounce" at this point, the Strongly Disapprove number is tied for the lowest since February 2011.



Guessing they haven't picked up on the Bin Laden effect yet. Because, uh, even if you think it won't do much for Obama's approval he's hardly going to gain a point in disapproval because of it.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7781 on: May 03, 2011, 11:56:49 am »

First non-tracking poll I've seen post-killing:

Washington Post/Pew Research gives him a 9 point bounce to 56%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/osama-bin-laden-killing-gives-obama-quick-but-limited-ratings-boost/2011/05/03/AFhxjegF_story.html

His approval for handling the threat of terrorism is now a ridiculously high 69% but he is still being held back to some extent by his economic numbers.

I would have expected a bigger bounce but let's see what some of the other polls say. I imagine he'll at least break 60% in some.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7782 on: May 03, 2011, 12:15:19 pm »

Found another one from SUSA which somewhat bizarrely records no bounce at all (may have been done before much about what happened could sink in I suppose):

Obama at 46%-42%

People now believe the U.S. is winning the "war on terror" 60%-18%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6fce1396-62b0-46d6-b453-f9da4e5a5063&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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King
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« Reply #7783 on: May 03, 2011, 12:30:47 pm »

The more interesting polls will be "Obama vs. GOP opponent, who do you trust more to handle national security?"

Those won't be for many months and it will be interesting to see if this holds any effect.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7784 on: May 03, 2011, 12:48:50 pm »

First non-tracking poll I've seen post-killing:

Washington Post/Pew Research gives him a 9 point bounce to 56%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/osama-bin-laden-killing-gives-obama-quick-but-limited-ratings-boost/2011/05/03/AFhxjegF_story.html

His approval for handling the threat of terrorism is now a ridiculously high 69% but he is still being held back to some extent by his economic numbers.

I would have expected a bigger bounce but let's see what some of the other polls say. I imagine he'll at least break 60% in some.
Well, I predicted exactly 56%, so I trust those numbers. ;-)
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memphis
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« Reply #7785 on: May 03, 2011, 12:54:15 pm »

He picked up one point in the first day of Gallup's three day rolling average. If there were a substantial boost to be had (like the one any GOP prez would get) it would knock the average up by more than one point. Obama may top out at 55ish. Pretty ridiculous considering what a monumental acheivement this is, even if it could have been done years ago if not for a financially crippling war of choice in Iraq. Like I said in a previous post, haters will continue to hate.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7786 on: May 03, 2011, 01:03:00 pm »

First non-tracking poll I've seen post-killing:

Washington Post/Pew Research gives him a 9 point bounce to 56%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/osama-bin-laden-killing-gives-obama-quick-but-limited-ratings-boost/2011/05/03/AFhxjegF_story.html

His approval for handling the threat of terrorism is now a ridiculously high 69% but he is still being held back to some extent by his economic numbers.

I would have expected a bigger bounce but let's see what some of the other polls say. I imagine he'll at least break 60% in some.
Well, I predicted exactly 56%, so I trust those numbers. ;-)

Yep, 10 points sounds about right. I predicted 55% myself.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7787 on: May 03, 2011, 01:03:10 pm »

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The Mikado
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« Reply #7788 on: May 03, 2011, 03:02:40 pm »

I honestly can't see Obama past 55% with the economy still FUBAR, bin Laden or mo bin Laden.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #7789 on: May 03, 2011, 03:38:12 pm »

There won't be a big bounce, as I predicted in the thread when he died.

Obama has a cap around 55 to 56% for approval. I don't think he gets there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7790 on: May 03, 2011, 03:50:56 pm »
« Edited: May 05, 2011, 04:38:27 pm by pbrower2a »

Arizona, PPP. First poll that bleeds into May, late enough to show effects of the presentation of the Ryan budget but done before the soul of Usama bin Laden got to meet that of Adolf Hitler.

Obama beats everyone but Romney.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_05031205.pdf
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
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jmfcst
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« Reply #7791 on: May 03, 2011, 05:19:59 pm »


no, what is going on is that is youre a Jimmy Carter type, one-off military successes dont really help you that much because few believe youre a strong war time leader and many think you are naive...at the other end of the spectrum, if you're a General Patton type, you get the full benefit of military success.

Obama is more like Carter than Patton, so he doesn't get much of a bump from a single event, even when he hits a home run....Bush43 was closer to Patton, so he got a bigger bump when Saddam was caught.

IMO
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Donald Trumpís Hair
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« Reply #7792 on: May 03, 2011, 05:36:44 pm »

OBL is (well was) irrelevant. Anyone who thought Obama would get above 60% is delusional. 56% as the Wash Po has him makes sense. It also makes sense that this will drop (unless there's other successes in the short term) within the coming months.

He won't win re-election because he killed OBL. It's not a campaign issue. It's not something the electorate cares about enough.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #7793 on: May 03, 2011, 06:51:29 pm »

It's not something the electorate cares about enough.

well, if that is the case, then we have surely lost the war on terror.

But, IMO, another thing that is hurting Obama's bounce is that fact that:

1) Pakistan has been shown to have been in bed with OBL and
2) the overall world Muslim community aint partying with us over the death of OBL.

...so, the American people are getting an eye full of the fact OBL represented a much larger slice of Islam than the liberal PC police led us to believe for nearly 10 years.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #7794 on: May 03, 2011, 07:07:18 pm »

The ironic thing is that you have a lot in common with the average Islamic extremist.

[ Roll Eyes...here goes another wasted question...]

what exactly do we have in common, besides the fact I am also a firm believer (though not the same belief)?
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jmfcst
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« Reply #7795 on: May 03, 2011, 07:23:56 pm »

The ironic thing is that you have a lot in common with the average Islamic extremist.

[ Roll Eyes...here goes another wasted question...]

what exactly do we have in common, besides the fact I am also a firm believer (though not the same belief)?

The desire to destroy anyone who disagrees with your socially communistic views.
if that were so, you wouldnt still be alive
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memphis
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« Reply #7796 on: May 03, 2011, 08:05:05 pm »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 08:08:56 pm by memphis »

I'd like to thank the resident Forum haters for proving me right. If going in and killing bin Laden (in a nuclear Pakistan) isn't enough to prove you have the balls to be commander in chief, I don't know what is. Being a "strong and decisive leader" shouldn't be about dressing up like a cowboy and fudging a John Wayne accent.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7797 on: May 03, 2011, 09:00:59 pm »

I'd like to thank the resident Forum haters for proving me right. If going in and killing bin Laden (in a nuclear Pakistan) isn't enough to prove you have the balls to be commander in chief, I don't know what is. Being a "strong and decisive leader" shouldn't be about dressing up like a cowboy and fudging a John Wayne accent.
This.  I still have a grudge with Obama for killing the manned space program and over-compromising on healthcare but he has proven he does have a spine in that thin frame of his.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #7798 on: May 03, 2011, 09:53:49 pm »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 09:55:56 pm by jmfcst »

I'd like to thank the resident Forum haters for proving me right. If going in and killing bin Laden (in a nuclear Pakistan) isn't enough to prove you have the balls to be commander in chief, I don't know what is. Being a "strong and decisive leader" shouldn't be about dressing up like a cowboy and fudging a John Wayne accent.
well, if we're gonna talk John Wayne, can I at least slip in a little Janet Leigh action into this thread, because there aint any part of that girl's body that wasnt real:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3BLlhBWKcc

unfortunately, cant find a clip of where she pistol whips him with the butt of a revolver....it was quite sexy...and after taking a pistol whipping, Wayne remarks, "You sure know your stuff, lady!"

oh, almost forgot...yeah, totally agree with your post.  good job you did, it was spot on and full stop
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7799 on: May 03, 2011, 10:49:05 pm »

Bump? Zilch.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-03/obama-approval-numbers-after-bin-laden-kill/#

ECONOMY HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?
BEFORE:      Right, 31%, Wrong, 56%
AFTER:         Right, 27%, Wrong 60%
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