The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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J. J.
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« Reply #7650 on: April 11, 2011, 09:12:10 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

The Strongly Approve number is the lowest of the Obama presidency and occurs after a week of low numbers.  It might, however, represent the lower edge of those low numbers.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7651 on: April 11, 2011, 10:26:40 AM »

Obama's below 20% Strong Approval today in Ras for the first time.  It makes sense i guess (I can't see agreeing to ~40 Billion in Spending cuts being popular with Liberals)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Republican majority in the House is in a position to play rough -- and has every incentive to do so. It has taken the gamble that it can convince people of its  wisdom between now and November 2012 that America suddenly underwent a cultural change late in 2010 that will last indefinitely and one that can be legislated into permanence.

I continue to predict that President Obama will do much as Truman did in 1948 -- run against Congressional Republicans.



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Ariosto
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« Reply #7652 on: April 11, 2011, 01:52:05 PM »

Yes but you have a Democratic Senate along with a Republican House. I don't know if that message will be as effective when Congress is seen to be divided between John Boehner and Harry Reid rather than if it was between John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7653 on: April 11, 2011, 02:25:00 PM »

NY (Siena):

63% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

52% Re-elect
39% Prefer someone else

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/041111SNYPollReleaseFINAL.pdf

FL (Mason Dixon):

43% Approve
51% Disapprove

http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/prespoll.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7654 on: April 11, 2011, 04:45:05 PM »

I guess NY isn't going to be a battleground in 2012. Shucks!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7655 on: April 11, 2011, 04:58:09 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2011, 07:25:05 PM by pbrower2a »

The Mason-Dixon poll concurs with the Quinnipiac poll. The average changes nothing.  

The Siena poll is favorable. unfavorable, and thus not usable.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7656 on: April 11, 2011, 08:20:33 PM »

Gallup's Weekly averages are out:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=91754.7695;num_replies=7705

In Short: Obama's down from last week across the board, and last week's fairly poor non-white approval numbers have only slightly recovered.  he's in the low 50s with Hispanics, mid 80s with blacks, and around 38% with Whites.  He dropped 7 points with both Liberals and Moderates, but gained 3 with Conservatives.  He's also down 11 with Moderate/Liberal Republicans and 9 with "Pure Independents".
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J. J.
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« Reply #7657 on: April 12, 2011, 09:24:30 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

The Strongly Approve number from yesterday (19%) appears to be a blip.  However, this is the first time the numbers have been below 23% for four days in a row.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7658 on: April 12, 2011, 03:27:46 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2011, 10:23:48 AM by pbrower2a »

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/obama-in-dicey-shape-in-pennsylvania.html

President Obama has gone into the hole in Pennsylvania (42-52), which may reflect the poor nationwide polls by Rasmussen and declines in statewide polls in Florida from earlier ones. He would lose the state to Romney within the margin of error and barely beat Huckabee. To be sure, the voting sample is similar to that of 2010...

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 96
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 20
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

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J. J.
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« Reply #7659 on: April 13, 2011, 09:40:56 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -2.




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7660 on: April 13, 2011, 10:25:36 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2011, 10:38:04 AM by pbrower2a »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -2.


Substantial swing, and back to normal.  Take a good look at this:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf


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The GOP needs to change this pattern of perception if it isn't to face a calamity in 2012 
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #7661 on: April 13, 2011, 09:05:14 PM »

How is NE-02 so deep red?!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7662 on: April 13, 2011, 10:55:54 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2011, 10:58:42 PM by pbrower2a »


PPP polled Nebraska a couple of months ago. Although the state as a whole is solidly Republican, NE-02 showed a strong positive approval for the President unlike the other two districts. NE-02 is most of Greater Omaha, and it is liberal by Nebraska standards. In 2012, NE-01 (eastern Nebraska other than Omaha and some of its suburbs) voted about like Texas, NE-02 voted much like Indiana or North Carolina, and NE-03 (western and central Nebraska,  one of the most right-wing congressional districts in America) voted much like Wyoming.

If Kansas, a state fairly similar in its voting to Nebraska, apportioned its electoral votes  in accordance with Congressional districts and two other votes at large, then one might see districts containing Kansas City or Wichita allotting an electoral vote for a Democrat in some elections even if the state as a whole votes firmly Republican.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7663 on: April 14, 2011, 12:25:53 AM »

FL (Suffolk):

41% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/46395.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #7664 on: April 14, 2011, 12:57:30 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -2.


Substantial swing, and back to normal. 

Actually not.  For the first time ever, Obama is below 23% Strongly Disapproved for five days running.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7665 on: April 14, 2011, 08:53:24 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2011, 09:20:32 AM by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +1.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7666 on: April 14, 2011, 04:19:50 PM »

42-50 in Gallup Today

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7667 on: April 14, 2011, 06:31:13 PM »

Obama's Gallup drop is striking. Is it bad data or is something going on. Rasmussen seems to be stable
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7668 on: April 15, 2011, 04:34:51 AM »

I expect a crappy summer for him followed by a probable rebound in the fall followed by blah blah blah.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7669 on: April 15, 2011, 09:28:57 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.

Obama's long term strongly approve number seems to be depressed.  That, however is not being reflected in his other numbers.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7670 on: April 15, 2011, 12:26:48 PM »

NC (Elon University):

48% Approve
45% Disapprove

51% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041511_PollMethodology.pdf
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change08
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« Reply #7671 on: April 15, 2011, 12:41:18 PM »


LOL, no.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7672 on: April 15, 2011, 12:45:32 PM »

A lot of national polls out today:

Gallup: 41-50

Democracy Corps: 44-50

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/fq4.pdf

PPP/DailyKos: 48-47

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/4/7

CNN: 48-50

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/04/11/rel6a.pdf

Reuters/Ipsos:

46-49

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/Reuters_Ipsos_National_April2011.pdf

YouGov:

43-52

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/20110412trackingreport.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7673 on: April 15, 2011, 03:38:35 PM »



New York State, Quinnipiac:

New York State voters approve 54 - 42 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, almost identical to his approval ratings in January and February polls.


Re Florida: although with only a 41% approval (but 11% undecided!) he would still defeat about everyone but Romney, with whom he has a virtual tie. The political Winter of Discontent applies even in a state in which many go to to get away from winter -- at least to the Governor.


At the most this poll updates the March poll in North Carolina from a "C" to a "D" -- that's for a month and not a grade. PPP is polling North Carolina this weekend, and because that poll will show some matchups, it will be more interesting.  
 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 49
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7674 on: April 15, 2011, 03:55:34 PM »


Gallup seems to be slower with its polls than other pollsters. It could be that Gallup gets right how things were the previous week, which isn't bad when approval and disapproval are stable.  As I recall, Gallup had a far more approving sample than did Rasmussen last week than did Rasmussen (a faster pollster) and now such is reversed. When the President takes a populist stand that suggests how he will campaign in 2012 and the GOP majority in the House tries to assert that nothing is wrong with America that can't be solved by letting the super-rich grab more than they have been getting, maybe the President wins a few points.

PPP will be polling Iowa (barely D in 2000 and barely R in 2004 in Presidential elections involving Dubya) and North Carolina this weekend. Such should be interesting. New Republican governors in WI, MI, OH, PA, ME, GA, and FL are extremely unpopular; we shall see if the pattern holds true in Iowa.   

Please thank me if you see a matchup between President Obama and Governor Mitch Daniels (R, IN). I suggested it, even if as an anonymous poster.

Fasten your seat belts; we are in for a bumpy ride.
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