|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 05, 2020, 02:09:57 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 301 302 303 304 305 [306] 307 308 309 310 311 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031057 times)
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7625 on: April 03, 2011, 09:14:16 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.


Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7626 on: April 03, 2011, 02:21:27 pm »

Gallup Approval Polling - Obama (National)

Approve - 46% (no change)

Disapprove - 46% (+1)
Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,489
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7627 on: April 03, 2011, 07:13:24 pm »

I love reading this thread after long periods of time and how different the Rasmussen numbers are every few days. If the numbers are to be believed from Rasmussen voters have gone from disliking to liking to disliking to liking Obama like a rollercoaster in the last two and ahalf weeks, basically.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7628 on: April 03, 2011, 07:21:57 pm »

I love reading this thread after long periods of time and how different the Rasmussen numbers are every few days. If the numbers are to be believed from Rasmussen voters have gone from disliking to liking to disliking to liking Obama like a rollercoaster in the last two and ahalf weeks, basically.

yeah, their weekend polls and their weekday polls are noticeably different.  its why their long term graph looks like this:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,074
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7629 on: April 03, 2011, 10:10:22 pm »

I love reading this thread after long periods of time and how different the Rasmussen numbers are every few days. If the numbers are to be believed from Rasmussen voters have gone from disliking to liking to disliking to liking Obama like a rollercoaster in the last two and ahalf weeks, basically.

It could be over events over which the President has little control -- like revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and now Libya.

I figure that if there were weekly approval ratings of President Harry Truman, they would likely have had a close correspondence to the latitude of the front line in Korea.
 
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7630 on: April 04, 2011, 01:46:50 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.
Logged
ragevein
KansasDem
Rookie
**
Posts: 31


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7631 on: April 04, 2011, 02:09:22 pm »

Libya bump.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7632 on: April 04, 2011, 02:15:08 pm »

Gallup Approval Polling - Obama (National)

Approve - 46% (no change)

Disapprove - 45% (-1)
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7633 on: April 04, 2011, 06:25:29 pm »
« Edited: April 04, 2011, 09:04:17 pm by Dgov »

Gallup's total for last week was 48% to 44%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Though interestingly, Obama is at only 57% with non-white Adults (55% with Hispanics, and 84% with Blacks), so Gallup must have polled a bunch of really Republicans Asians last week to get those numbers like that.  That's also the lowest rating from that group for him period (next lowest is 63%), and since its such a big drop, its probably just statistical noise.  Although, this means that non-whites are only 9 points more approving of Obama than the country as a whole.

Also, Obama's been a bit down with blacks lately, getting less than 85% with them the last 2 weeks compared to the usual high-80s and low-90s he got most of last year.

EDIT: Forgot Gallup polls was Adults rather than Registered Voters
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7634 on: April 05, 2011, 09:50:41 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

Not only no Libya bump, but the rebels are being pushed back.

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,074
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7635 on: April 05, 2011, 12:57:49 pm »
« Edited: April 06, 2011, 01:13:38 pm by pbrower2a »

Georgia, a state in reach of President Obama. Such would be a disaster for the GOP because the GOP absolutely needs this state which was about R+7 in 2008. Huckabee and Romney would both barely win it.  I might have expected Huckabee to win it more decisively because the demographics of Georgia are fairly close to those of Arkansas. It is possible to lose with 50% approval in a state if the opponent is a better match for the state or district, but the majority of such cases are anomalies.  

I still think that President Obama is the wrong Democrat for Georgia as a cultural mismatch, but even without an Obama win of the state, the Democrats might pick up a House seat or two there.

Gingrich seems to be fading quickly, and he would lose his own state. This is worse for him than it was in the last PPP poll. Huckabee and Romney are holding their own, so I figure that it is not so much President Obama who is gaining in Georgia (he is, but not that fast) as it is Gingrich self-destructing.  

President Obama isn't doing particularly well in New Hampshire (46-46  tie in approval and disapproval); he would barely defeat Romney, if within the usual margin of error, but win decisively against everyone else.  But to have a chance to win New Hampshire, the Republicans have to concede North Carolina, which would be a horrible trade.  

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 116
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 20
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7636 on: April 06, 2011, 08:36:45 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -3.

Logged
PQG will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7637 on: April 07, 2011, 07:52:55 am »

Maybe some rebound from the budget impasse? I think it reminds people of the alternative of GOP rule. Few outside the tea party (and maybe some Democratic pollsters Wink) likes the idea of a shutdown.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7638 on: April 07, 2011, 08:42:00 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, u.


Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,739
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7639 on: April 08, 2011, 12:49:37 am »

Florida (Quinnipiac University)Sad

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

From March 29 - April 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,499 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1584

Virginia (Roanoke College)Sad

33.6% Approve
56.7% Disapprove

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Opinion and Policy Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between March 17 and March 30, 2011. The sample consisted of 437 residents of Virginia. The sample of phone numbers was prepared by Survey Sampling Inc. of Fairfield, Conn. and was created so that all residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 437 likely voters are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.7 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4.7 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all registered voters who have a telephone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_Spring_2011.htm

Update:

Washington Post Polling Director Jon Cohen warns to be cautious of this poll. "Results were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia's racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities. Each of these factors is related to partisan preferences."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/04/07/allen_opens_early_lead_over_kaine.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,739
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7640 on: April 08, 2011, 12:54:39 am »

New Jersey (FDU)Sad

47% Approve
42% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 711 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from March 29 through April 4, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/prez1104/
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,074
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7641 on: April 08, 2011, 09:23:12 am »
« Edited: April 11, 2011, 07:27:36 pm by pbrower2a »

New Jersey (FDU)Sad

47% Approve
42% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 711 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from March 29 through April 4, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/prez1104/


Huge number of undecided (13%).

Florida (Quinnipiac University)Sad

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

From March 29 - April 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,499 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1584

Virginia (Roanoke College)Sad

33.6% Approve
56.7% Disapprove

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Opinion and Policy Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between March 17 and March 30, 2011. The sample consisted of 437 residents of Virginia. The sample of phone numbers was prepared by Survey Sampling Inc. of Fairfield, Conn. and was created so that all residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 437 likely voters are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.7 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4.7 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all registered voters who have a telephone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_Spring_2011.htm

Update:

Washington Post Polling Director Jon Cohen warns to be cautious of this poll. "Results were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia's racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities. Each of these factors is related to partisan preferences."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/04/07/allen_opens_early_lead_over_kaine.html

I accept the one for Florida, but not for Virginia. There's no excuse for a poll that fails to fit the ethnic reality of a state in which ethnicity shapes voting practices.

 An edge of "Generic Republican" over President Obama means nothing now and will mean nothing in 2012, when "Generic Republican" will be in hibernation. No specific matchups are shown in Quinnipiac, so I will have to leave a blank  for those.  The President probably wins any likely matchup with any specific nominee, and Governor Rick Scott will be a detriment to any GOP nominee for President.
 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 126
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 101
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 70
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 20
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 29
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 89
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7642 on: April 08, 2011, 10:38:25 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.



Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7643 on: April 08, 2011, 02:23:32 pm »

As someone who lives near Roanoke College (as in, 15 minutes away from here), I can safely say the VA poll is really, really off. Unless of course they just polled Salem City. Then it's right on the money.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,943
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7644 on: April 08, 2011, 03:26:58 pm »

A college poll showing crap results? Wow, i'd never have known it.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,739
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7645 on: April 09, 2011, 12:10:41 am »

NJ (Rutgers, with 3 measures, not one of them usable for the map)Sad

Please rate how Barack Obama is handling his job as President, using a grading scale from A to F, You can give him any full letter grade, A, B, C, D, or F.

A - 14%
B - 32%
C - 27%
D - 16%
F - 10%

Please rate how Barack Obama is handling his job as president. Is it excellent, good, fair, or poor?

13% Excellent
34% Good
31% Fair
22% Poor

I'd like to ask about some people and organizations. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. First, President Barack Obama:

55% Favorable
32% Unfavorable

LOL.

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_04-08-11.pdf
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,933
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7646 on: April 09, 2011, 03:53:07 am »

     I am starting to suspect that pollsters don't have any actual notion of approval ratings & why people would be interested in them. -_-
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7647 on: April 09, 2011, 11:35:23 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +1.




Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7648 on: April 10, 2011, 08:38:30 am »
« Edited: April 11, 2011, 09:02:35 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.


Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7649 on: April 11, 2011, 09:11:28 am »

Obama's below 20% Strong Approval today in Ras for the first time.  It makes sense i guess (I can't see agreeing to ~40 Billion in Spending cuts being popular with Liberals)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 301 302 303 304 305 [306] 307 308 309 310 311 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines