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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030827 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #7600 on: March 30, 2011, 03:53:39 pm »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #7601 on: March 30, 2011, 04:21:46 pm »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

     The question is, will swing voters agree with that, or even agree with the question as posed? In politics, perception is not reality, but pretty close to it. If Obama is perceived as being at fault, then him not actually being at fault is a hollow comfort for him.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7602 on: March 31, 2011, 01:03:53 am »

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB
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J. J.
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« Reply #7603 on: March 31, 2011, 06:33:24 am »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

1.  It might be more the hypocrisy factor.  Obama was supposedly anti-war, and he's slowly entering one (though I can make the case he should).

2.  This won't be a short war.
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badger
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« Reply #7604 on: March 31, 2011, 08:06:21 am »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

1.  It might be more the hypocrisy factor.  Obama was supposedly anti-war, and he's slowly entering one (though I can make the case he should).

2.  This won't be a short war.

No, J.J., Obama was never "anti-war". He opposed the Iraq War, and supported (supports) the Afghanistan War. In fact, he argued (and argues) that intervention in Iraq kept valuable resources--troops, material, funds, diplomatic and intelligence resources, and attention--diverted from the real war against the Taliban and Osama bin-Laden. In retrospect of the WMD hunt in Iraq and the Taliban's resurgence, he was not only entirely correct, but remarkably consistent.

We didn't elect a pacifist, J.J. Roll Eyes The only voters who find "hypocrisy" in Obama's actions are the one's who can't distinguish between Obama and Kucinich and accordingly aren't about to vote for him in the first place.
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ragevein
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« Reply #7605 on: March 31, 2011, 10:10:26 am »

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB


Libya bump.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7606 on: March 31, 2011, 10:12:46 am »

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB


Libya bump.

No.

His approvals in Hawaii are always in the 60-70% range, that's nothing new.

He won there with more than 70% after all.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7607 on: March 31, 2011, 10:51:17 am »


No, J.J., Obama was never "anti-war". He opposed the Iraq War, and supported (supports) the Afghanistan War. In fact, he argued (and argues) that intervention in Iraq kept valuable resources--troops, material, funds, diplomatic and intelligence resources, and attention--diverted from the real war against the Taliban and Osama bin-Laden. In retrospect of the WMD hunt in Iraq and the Taliban's resurgence, he was not only entirely correct, but remarkably consistent.

We didn't elect a pacifist, J.J. Roll Eyes The only voters who find "hypocrisy" in Obama's actions are the one's who can't distinguish between Obama and Kucinich and accordingly aren't about to vote for him in the first place.

I think it is the left that has this problem.  Like I said, I can make the case that there should be they type of intervention Obama is doing and contemplating.

This is more criticism of the left than it is of Obama or even the Democrats in general.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7608 on: March 31, 2011, 10:53:25 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, +1.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  +1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7609 on: March 31, 2011, 01:12:58 pm »

And Florida checks in with 48-47.

That makes it "all green" in the Obama states for the first time in a long period ... Wink

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_03311023.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7610 on: March 31, 2011, 03:20:56 pm »
« Edited: March 31, 2011, 03:31:26 pm by pbrower2a »


A state not polled since June of last year finally checks in!

(cue drum roll)

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB

It's Hawaii.

(Cue anticlimactic moans).

Not so anticlimactic:
And Florida checks in with 48-47.

That makes it "all green" in the Obama states for the first time in a long period ... Wink

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_03311023.pdf


Except for Indiana, and only due to our ignorance for a lack of polls. It would almost certainly be on the margin, like Arizona and Missouri. Robot polls aren't allowed in Indiana, so that state will be a blank for a while.
 
The Presidential election of 2012 now projects to look much like that of 2008 if nothing changes over slightly more than 19 months.

PPP polls Georgia and New Hampshire this week.   

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 36
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  




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Penelope
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« Reply #7611 on: March 31, 2011, 04:22:37 pm »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

1.  It might be more the hypocrisy factor.  Obama was supposedly anti-war, and he's slowly entering one (though I can make the case he should).

2.  This won't be a short war.

And what exactly do you draw this conclusion from other than the (D) beside Obama's name?
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Dgov
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« Reply #7612 on: March 31, 2011, 04:54:51 pm »

PPP/DailyKos:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Mar 25, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/25

So much for pro-Obama bias by PPP!

No, it seems like their nation-wide polling is significantly less friendly to Obama than their individual state-polling, which suggest either their procedure are different, or that the state they haven't polled individually have soured more on obama than the states they have.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7613 on: March 31, 2011, 05:08:31 pm »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

1.  It might be more the hypocrisy factor.  Obama was supposedly anti-war, and he's slowly entering one (though I can make the case he should).

2.  This won't be a short war.

And what exactly do you draw this conclusion from other than the (D) beside Obama's name?

It has nothing to do with Obama.  It has everything to do with the lack of a solid rebel army in the field.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #7614 on: March 31, 2011, 08:58:30 pm »

Gallup
49 approve
43 disapprove
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7615 on: April 01, 2011, 11:17:10 am »

It seems like SurveyUSA dropped their monthly approval rating polls for selected states once and for all.

I remember that they polled all 50 states each month from 2004-2006, then they only polled about 16 states each month and after the 2010 elections, only 4 states were polled each month (with very weird results lately).
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J. J.
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« Reply #7616 on: April 01, 2011, 01:20:56 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  u.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7617 on: April 02, 2011, 12:24:20 am »

It seems like SurveyUSA dropped their monthly approval rating polls for selected states once and for all.

Hmm. They posted them tonight ... Tongue

California: 48-46

Kansas: 35-62

Oregon: 44-53

Washington: 48-49
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7618 on: April 02, 2011, 01:11:02 am »

Florida - Viewpoint Florida (R):

43% Approve
54% Disapprove

Democrats approve 65-30, Republicans 22-78 and Independents 51-49.

The sample is 45% GOP, 40% DEM, 15% IND.

http://viewpointflorida.org/index.php/site/article/majority_of_florida_voters_disapprove_of_obama_but_support_libyan_inte/
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7619 on: April 02, 2011, 01:20:58 am »

Florida - Viewpoint Florida (R):

43% Approve
54% Disapprove

Democrats approve 65-30, Republicans 22-78 and Independents 51-49.

The sample is 45% GOP, 40% DEM, 15% IND.

http://viewpointflorida.org/index.php/site/article/majority_of_florida_voters_disapprove_of_obama_but_support_libyan_inte/

Bad sample.

It seems like SurveyUSA dropped their monthly approval rating polls for selected states once and for all.

Hmm. They posted them tonight ... Tongue

California: 48-46

Kansas: 35-62

Oregon: 44-53

Washington: 48-49

Do these fellows ever choose different states? Or get different results?

Nothing useful here, so no new maps.

PPP will soon have Georgia and New Hampshire, states likely on the fringes of contest in 2012.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7620 on: April 02, 2011, 08:50:30 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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Rowan
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« Reply #7621 on: April 02, 2011, 09:09:54 am »

Pbrower picking and choosing what to include on the map? I don't believe it!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7622 on: April 02, 2011, 09:22:46 am »

Pbrower picking and choosing what to include on the map? I don't believe it!

SurveyUSA's polls are indeed very "out of the line".

A) They poll ADULTS and show ridiculously low approvals for Obama in states with high minority populations and where other polls such as the respected Field poll or PPIC have Obama close to 60% among ADULTS in California.

B) The 2010 Exit Polls mostly proved SurveyUSA's approval polls wrong:

CA Exit Poll: 53-44 Approve, SurveyUSA poll in Mid-October: 45-49
OR Exit Poll: 53-47 Approve, SurveyUSA poll in Mid-October: 47-51
WA Exit Poll: 51-49 Approve, SurveyUSA poll in Mid-October: 52-44

And adult polls show typically higher values for Obama, only the WA poll was correct for an adult-screen ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7623 on: April 02, 2011, 03:06:41 pm »
« Edited: April 02, 2011, 03:14:56 pm by pbrower2a »

Esthetic change. Rather than using an asterisk for a tie for one candidate against President Obama in the case in which only one potential GOP candidate can tie President Obama in 2012. I am going to use a tan shade for such a situation. Watch North Carolina. See the asterisk disappear.

The purpose is to show the possibility of a tie in a state with a small or compact state. Such states are generally not likely to need such treatment.

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 36
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a A tan color will be used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  





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« Reply #7624 on: April 02, 2011, 04:00:39 pm »

Obama approval rating March 2011 (Gallup):

47% Approve

45% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/42 (March 1979)

Reagan: 41/49 (March 1983)

Bush I: 86/8 (March 1991)

Clinton: 45/46 (March 1995)

Bush II: 65/31 (March 2003)
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