The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Dgov]

WI (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Scott Walker)

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/WPRI-Toplines-030311.pdf

Interesting . .  the Walker favorable numbers are the same as the approval numbers, but less strong.

Also, His plan overall is a bit more favorable than he is (46-51), and different wording yields wildly different results on collective bargaining.  The Democratic-spin one is 32-58, while the Republican spin one is 47-50.

Also interesting is that the "Compromise" plan is about as unfavorable than that, at 36-60.

[Dgov]

I don't know what to make of this:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_christies_poll_numbers_dro.html

(Reuters-Eagleton)

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I don't use favorability polls.

Wow, did they actually use 3 different measures of a politicians popularity in the same poll?

[Dgov]

Also, Obama's been down recently in Gallup.  Not as bad as late last year, but he's back to 46% on a weekly poll for the first time since 2010.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146522/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Retreats.aspx

Though this seems to be mostly from non-whites (as he's gone from 89% to 81% among Blacks, and 64% to 51% among Hispanics), and Liberals (77% to 71%).

[Dgov]

It's odd that Gallup and Rasmusen always have almost exactly the same approvals, but Obama's dissaprovals are around 7 points higher on Rasmusen. 

I think someone did a study and found that asking for "Strongly Disapprove vs Regular Disapprove" tends to push more people to give an opinion (as they can mentally contrast themselves with the "stronger" option if they only feel weakly about a candidate).

The Reason their approvals wind up the same however is because Ras tests a generally more Republican group, which pushes their sample a few points more Republican.  Those two effects would probably cancel for Obama's approval numbers, but stack for his disapproval numbers.

[Dgov]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  -1.

That 20% is the lowest Obama has ever been.  I strongly suspect it is just a bad sample.

Probably is.  If i had to give a possible explanation however, I'd say that Gas prices are rearing their ugly head.

[Dgov]

I agree it could easily be fuel prices that are taking his numbers down....but I've always wondered why so many people are stupid enough to base presidential approval on that.

Well it makes more sense than "OMG BAD STUFF IN LIBYA I HATE TEH PREZ".  At least Obama has some measure of control over gas prices.

[Dgov]

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  -1.

Should be 41% Strongly Disapprove (according to the link)

[Dgov]

I agree it could easily be fuel prices that are taking his numbers down....but I've always wondered why so many people are stupid enough to base presidential approval on that.

Well it makes more sense than "OMG BAD STUFF IN LIBYA I HATE TEH PREZ".  At least Obama has some measure of control over gas prices.

What control?

by "Some measure of Control" I mean that he can actually affect drilling policy and legislation regarding the energy market.  Far more control than say, a civil war in Libya or an Earthquake in Japan.

[Dgov]

PPP/DailyKos:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Mar 25, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/25

So much for pro-Obama bias by PPP!

No, it seems like their nation-wide polling is significantly less friendly to Obama than their individual state-polling, which suggest either their procedure are different, or that the state they haven't polled individually have soured more on obama than the states they have.

[Dgov]

I love reading this thread after long periods of time and how different the Rasmussen numbers are every few days. If the numbers are to be believed from Rasmussen voters have gone from disliking to liking to disliking to liking Obama like a rollercoaster in the last two and ahalf weeks, basically.

yeah, their weekend polls and their weekday polls are noticeably different.  its why their long term graph looks like this:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Dgov]

Gallup's total for last week was 48% to 44%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Though interestingly, Obama is at only 57% with non-white Adults (55% with Hispanics, and 84% with Blacks), so Gallup must have polled a bunch of really Republicans Asians last week to get those numbers like that.  That's also the lowest rating from that group for him period (next lowest is 63%), and since its such a big drop, its probably just statistical noise.  Although, this means that non-whites are only 9 points more approving of Obama than the country as a whole.

Also, Obama's been a bit down with blacks lately, getting less than 85% with them the last 2 weeks compared to the usual high-80s and low-90s he got most of last year.

EDIT: Forgot Gallup polls was Adults rather than Registered Voters

[Dgov]

Obama's below 20% Strong Approval today in Ras for the first time.  It makes sense i guess (I can't see agreeing to ~40 Billion in Spending cuts being popular with Liberals)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Dgov]

Gallup's Weekly averages are out:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=91754.7695;num_replies=7705

In Short: Obama's down from last week across the board, and last week's fairly poor non-white approval numbers have only slightly recovered.  he's in the low 50s with Hispanics, mid 80s with blacks, and around 38% with Whites.  He dropped 7 points with both Liberals and Moderates, but gained 3 with Conservatives.  He's also down 11 with Moderate/Liberal Republicans and 9 with "Pure Independents".

[Dgov]

42-50 in Gallup Today

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[Dgov]

Obama's bounced back a bit in Gallup to 44-47

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[Dgov]

Gallup's weekly numbers are up, and Obama has kept sliding with non-white voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

He's now at 55% with them, down from 59% last week.  This represents the lowest he's ever been with them.  He's still at 86% with Blacks, but is now at 47% with Hispanics and probably lower than that with Asians and "others", continuing a trend that has lasted for about a month now.  His White numbers on the other hand, are still above his November 2010 lows of 33%, standing at 37%.

His numbers by age and region are roughly what you would expect, though he is now below 50% with under-30 voters, and below 40% in the "South".

For party affiliation and ideology however, he's actually up with both Independents and "True" Independents (though only at 40% and 36% respectively).  He's also up 3 points with Moderates, Moderate/Liberal Republicans, and Liberal Democrats.  However, he tanked hard with Conservatives (down 6 points), particularly Conservative Democrats (down 14 points) who now only give him 56% compared to around 70% for most of the last year.

Overall, he's at 43-48, which is around his November 2010 levels.  However, as noted above, these appear to be different people approving/disapproving compared to then.

[Dgov]

Anyone else find it ironic that the only Poll Obama's above water in is the FOX news poll?

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FoxNewsPollBudget.pdf

Though another trend I've noticed is that Obama seems to do much better on general polls (Approve/Disapprove) than on specific issue polls (Economy, Deficit, Jobs, etc.).  Anyone have thoughts on why this is?  Does he just do really well on the stuff that isn't polled?

[Dgov]

Obama's back down to 42-49 Today in Gallup.

[Dgov]

Wisconsin (Wisconsin Public Radio):

"Still, 52 percent said they approve of Obama. That's up from a 42 percent approval rating last fall."

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/e9c17199b86c4dbcbb158ac816d00f66/WI--Poll-Approval-Ratings/

Though it also gives Walker a 46% Approval rating, which makes him an above-average Governor i think.

[Dgov]

Gallup's weekly summary is up:

In short, no significant changes.  Obama's up 4 with women, down 3 with men, minimal changes by age, down 3 in the East, up 3 in the West and 2 in the South.

He's down 1 with Whites, up 3 with Non-whites, up 2 with Republicans, and 2 with Liberals.

The only big change is that he's down to 29% with "Pure Independents", a drop of 7 (though this is after a gain of 4 last week, and is not likely an actual drop)

EDIT: forgot link
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

[Dgov]

Obama at 44-50 Approval by Daily Kos/PPP

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/4/21

Also he's down 46-45 against "Generic GOP" with some amusing cross tabs (Asians break Obama 80-11, in line with blacks, but Hispanics are only 52-39.  Also, Boomers are Obama's best demographic group, winning them by 5, a point more than Generation Y.  Remember that cross tabs have much higher MOE's.  Still kind of funny though).

[Dgov]

Obama down to 42-49 in Gallup Today:

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[Dgov]

Gallup's Weekly tracking is up, though this is for last week up until Sunday, so it'll be good to compare a week from now:

In Short, not much change.  He went from 43-48 to 44-47 compared to last week, gaining 5 with the 65+ voters, Pure Independents and Conservative Democrats, down 5 with moderate Democrats, and no significant changes in any other category.

The only other interesting thing however is that the age spread is the lowest it's ever been--Under 30s give 46% approval (their lowest to date), while over 65s give 41% approval with everyone else in between.  Also, this is the 5th straight week that Obama's been under 60% approval from non-whites.

EDIT: Forgot the link

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

[Dgov]

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

That's about a +5 shift since Sunday.

Yes, but its hardly earth-shattering.  He's had bigger swings before (though it certainly reflects a gain from before the announcement).

[Dgov]

Scott's analysis seems to echo mine from yesterday.  It should be noted, however that Obama's Strongly Disapprove number is the lowest since July 1, 2009.  That is where there seems to be movement.

To give you an example of what that means, his approval index was still on positive ground back then.

Also, this does make sense.  The Consensus here is that Obama didn't totally mess this up, which is probably the best a President is going to get on a messy foreign policy achievement ("Messy" meaning anything where someone gets killed).

However, I think the more lasting political issue will wind up being the aftermath.  There are emerging stories that conflict with the White house message on this, which raises more than a few questions on both what happened and what was supposed to happen (though those are mostly from the Left rather than the Right)