The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[tmthforu94]

Indiana (Public Opinion Strategies - R)

44% Approve
53% Disapprove

(Gov. Daniels)

65% Approve
29% Disapprove

The poll was taken by Public Opinion Strategies of 600 likely voters on January 5-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0%.

http://www.indianabarrister.com/archives/2010/01/poll_watching-3.html

http://www.thelakecountygop.com/news/183-governor-daniels

Finally!

[tmthforu94]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.

[tmthforu94]

FOX News:

46% Approve
47% Disapprove

51% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

Polling was conducted by telephone February 2-3, 2010, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020410_Obama-Washington_web.pdf

lol fox news...

What's that supposed to mean? FOX news is shockingly liberal on polling.

Based on what? That one poll you saw the other day?

Based on almost all of their polls on the Presidents approval. This is one of the first ones where they were below the RCP average.

[tmthforu94]

Having people vote accross state lines is ridiculous and wrong, period. People should be voting in their home state. You are crazy for saying that is okay, but of course, you only will think it's okay when Democrats are doing it. Republicans can't.

[tmthforu94]

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Oh wow, somewhere actually higher than those who voted for him.

It's the "Age Wave" that's doing it, along with HCR. By the end of next week, Obama's approval ratings will be around 60%, and above 50% in every state except Oklahoma and Alabama.

[tmthforu94]

Why is the Illinois poll not included, other than you don't like it's numbers?

[tmthforu94]

Why is the Illinois poll not included, other than you don't like it's numbers?

Isn't it a GOP pollster? :S

Is it? I didn't know, so I was asking.

[tmthforu94]

So, the second map on your posts is what you think the Presidential election would be? If so, you're saying that despite the fact Obama has had negative approvals in most of the Florida polls, some very negative, because he has a mere 50% approval there, he would win by 5-9 points. That doesn't make logical sense.

[tmthforu94]

Indiana (SurveyUSA)

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

I'd take that with a grain of salt. I just read it, it says that 77% of people who said they voted for Obama still approve of him. 90% of people who voted for McCain dissaprove.

There have been several polls taken in Indiana, all with similar results. He is despised in rural areas right now, so this comes as no suprise to me.

[tmthforu94]

At this point, I don't see Obama winning Missouri or Florida in 2012.

[tmthforu94]

So something like this for the 2012 election results?

226 - Obama
312 - Generic Rep

Switch Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire and I'd say uo are good. Maybe Iowa and Nevada too.

[tmthforu94]

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

/facepalm

... why doesn't Derek ascribe the low approval to a bad economy, to not actively campaigning, or even  to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico?

Of course one can criticize President Obama, but one needs to "get" him for something true.  I don't hear any "street" talk.

None of the Republicans are "actively campaign" either. Obama's at more of an advantage than any Republican because he is in the power to make chances that the country might like.

[tmthforu94]

Wyoming:
1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve
11% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
57% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/wyoming/election_2010_wyoming_governor

[tmthforu94]

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.

[tmthforu94]

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.

Once again... we are TWO YEARS AND 4 MONTHS FROM ELECTION DAY!!!!

Exactly. Which is why it's ridiculous that pbrower is saying that it's "bad for Republicans" than Obama has a 43% approval rating in Indiana, which he thinks will make it competitive.

[tmthforu94]

Pbrower, I disagree with you on Colorado. 55% disapprove of Obama, with 48% of it being strongly approve. 48% are almost guaranteed to vote against Obama, while only 29% is guaranteed. That's be either slight Republican or toss-up, but certainly not slight Democratic.

[tmthforu94]

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

[tmthforu94]

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

OK, there is a really -good reason to distrust the numbers: they add up to 110%!

Take another look:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You are right -- I am not going to accept that poll at face value. Just wait for the next one -- a correction, surely.

Maybe if you'd copy down polls right this wouldn't be an issue.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_august_10_2010

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[tmthforu94]

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

OK, there is a really -good reason to distrust the numbers: they add up to 110%!

Take another look:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You are right -- I am not going to accept that poll at face value. Just wait for the next one -- a correction, surely.

Maybe if you'd copy down polls right this wouldn't be an issue.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_august_10_2010

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rasmussen corrected a misprint. Such happens.

Of course, silly Rasmussen.
...

[tmthforu94]

Why aren't you averaging the two recent polls in Florida? That's what you did with North Carolina  a while back when the poll had Obama with low approvals. You averaged it with a recent one where he had high approvals so he'd look better.

[tmthforu94]

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       29% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       47% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

29+18+7+47+1=102%

[tmthforu94]

SUSA  Georgia: 35-61

http://www.13wmaz.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=90254&catid=4

(It's kind of buried in the lower section with a type, and SUSA doesn't yet have it on their site)

The most depressing part about this poll? Deal leads by 11.

[tmthforu94]

Pbrower, how is a 44% approval in Colorado a pure toss-up but a 45% approval in Wisconsin is lean Democrat?

[tmthforu94]

Pbrower, how is a 44% approval in Colorado a pure toss-up but a 45% approval in Wisconsin is lean Democrat?

An incumbent normally has a 6% advantage over a challenger during a statewide campaign (Governor, US Senate, maybe a single-district House seat) or a Presidential election.  unless he implodes through scandals, extreme gaffes, or international debacles. This advantage is not enough to rescue a failure, and it might not apply when the incumbent faces a third-party nominee on his side of the political spectrum.

The President gets plenty of attention from the media and his campaign can usually compliment the President's statements. The challenger or someone running for the open seat has no such luck.

Lets just pretend for a second that your theory makes sense...
45+6=51
That would put a Republican at around 48%. That would give Obama about a 3 point lead. According to your own "rules", lean Democrat is 5-9% margin, which is well above 3 points.

[tmthforu94]

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Pbrower, make sure to add these.