The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Sam Spade]

It's nice to see a compilation of data here other than pbrower's. I was considering doing this myself, but I couldn't find Obama state-by-state approval rating online and was too lazy to go back through pages of thread.

In the future, SS, it'd be nice if your posts came with a map -- that would make them much easier to read.

I don't do maps, but you're free to make your own.

[Sam Spade]

Gallup bumps around a lot based on random error and enthusiasm in its model.  Rasmussen weights enthusiasm out, though if it's continued enthusiasm, it always shows up in party ID over time.

Gallup is consistently going to show higher approval because it's adults vs. LV (it would be similar for adults vs. RV too).

Key thing in both polls is to look at the big picture (week by week or month by month0.

[Sam Spade]

I don't understand the national numbers against the state numbers. The state numbers seem as high as ever....sometimes even higher than they should be.

There's a couple of reasons why - I've laid them out before, maybe I'll lay them out later.

[Sam Spade]

The random, yet amazingly always pro-Obama reasons pbrower finds for rejecting polls from his list are almost as amusing as his conclusions.

[Sam Spade]

But Gallup has moved down, so it could just be some movement.

Logic suggests there would be some downward pressure on his numbers from growing concerns and unhappiness with the way the BP oil spill is being handled by the government and Obama's reaction to it. Then again, like you suggested about sending troops... *shrug*

That being said, all the movement is at the margins, and unless we see declines across the board, it's impossible to know if there's even a decline at all. Such is polling.  :/

Stop making so much sense.

[Sam Spade]

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

[Sam Spade]

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

God forbid you actually tell us mere mortals said "real reason".

I really do enjoy this, too much actually.

One of these days I think I'm going to write something about the immovable 48.

[Sam Spade]

Going to make an update for May tomorrow.  It will read...

ALL POLLS:  48% Approve, 49% Disapprove (from 48% Approve, 48% Disapprove)
W/O RASMUSSEN:  47% Approve, 47% Disapprove (from 48% Approve, 46% Disapprove)
RASMUSSEN LAST POLL/COMBINED LAST THREE:  49% Approve, 50% Disapprove (unchanged)

[Sam Spade]

Sam, is there still a real reason this is occurring, or is there now a fake reason?  Please advise.

There's both a real and a fake reason.  Can't figure out why.

[Sam Spade]

Prior Months State-by-State Approvals Posts (meaning this month's one is coming up soon)

May 2010
1) ALL POLLS
2) RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
3) RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
4) ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS

April 2010
1) ALL POLLS
2) RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
3) RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
4) ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS

[Sam Spade]

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL POLLS

Updated June 6, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after March 29 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State	# of Polls	Obama Approval	Obama Disapproval	2008 Obama	2004 Kerry	2000 Gore
Alabama	3	39%	58%	39%	37%	42%
Alaska	2	38%	59%	38%	36%	28%
Arizona	2	42%	56%	45%	44%	45%
Arkansas	3	36%	62%	39%	45%	46%
California	4	53%	42%	61%	54%	53%
Colorado	2	45%	53%	54%	47%	42%
Connecticut	3	55%	41%	61%	54%	56%
DC	0	None	None	92%	89%	85%
Delaware	1	54%	46%	62%	53%	55%
Florida	3	49%	46%	51%	47%	49%
Georgia	3	42%	56%	47%	41%	43%
Hawaii	1	77%	23%	72%	54%	56%
Idaho	2	33%	62%	36%	30%	28%
Illinois	2	56%	41%	62%	55%	55%
Indiana	2	38%	58%	50%	39%	41%
Iowa	3	48%	49%	54%	49%	49%
Kansas	2	35%	64%	42%	37%	37%
Kentucky	3	37%	60%	41%	40%	41%
Louisiana	1	40%	59%	40%	42%	45%
Maine	0	None	None	58%	54%	49%
Maryland	3	59%	35%	62%	56%	57%
Massachusetts	1	63%	37%	62%	62%	60%
Michigan	2	48%	50%	57%	51%	51%
Minnesota	2	52%	48%	54%	51%	48%
Mississippi	0	None	None	43%	40%	41%
Missouri	3	45%	53%	49%	46%	47%
Montana	0	None	None	47%	39%	33%
Nebraska	1	38%	61%	42%	33%	33%
Nevada	2	46%	52%	55%	48%	46%
New Hampshire	3	47%	50%	54%	50%	47%
New Jersey	3	52%	40%	57%	53%	56%
New Mexico	2	49%	48%	57%	49%	48%
New York	3	58%	39%	63%	58%	60%
North Carolina	3	46%	51%	50%	44%	43%
North Dakota	1	41%	57%	45%	36%	33%
Ohio	3	46%	50%	51%	49%	46%
Oklahoma	2	37%	60%	34%	34%	38%
Oregon	2	52%	47%	57%	51%	47%
Pennsylvania	3	46%	50%	54%	51%	51%
Rhode Island	1	55%	43%	63%	59%	61%
South Carolina	2	46%	46%	45%	41%	41%
South Dakota	2	42%	54%	45%	38%	38%
Tennessee	2	39%	57%	42%	43%	47%
Texas	3	37%	59%	44%	38%	38%
Utah	1	29%	69%	34%	26%	26%
Vermont	2	62%	36%	67%	59%	51%
Virginia	2	46%	53%	53%	45%	44%
Washington	3	53%	44%	57%	53%	50%
West Virginia	0	None	None	43%	43%	46%
Wisconsin	3	46%	49%	56%	50%	48%
Wyoming	1	31%	68%	33%	29%	28%
NATIONAL		48%	49%	53%	48%	48%

[Sam Spade]

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS

Updated June 6, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers an average of the last two/three Rasmussen polls within the last six months, or simply the last poll if no poll exists in that time frame.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Massachusetts Special polls ignored.

State	# of Polls	Obama Approval	Obama Disapproval	2008 Obama	2004 Kerry	2000 Gore
Alabama	2	41%	59%	39%	37%	42%
Alaska	1	39%	61%	38%	36%	28%
Arizona	3	38%	61%	45%	44%	45%
Arkansas	3	35%	64%	39%	45%	46%
California	3	59%	39%	61%	54%	53%
Colorado	3	44%	56%	54%	47%	42%
Connecticut	3	56%	42%	61%	54%	56%
DC	0	None	None	92%	89%	85%
Delaware	3	52%	48%	62%	53%	55%
Florida	3	47%	51%	51%	47%	49%
Georgia	3	42%	56%	47%	41%	43%
Hawaii	1	77%	23%	72%	54%	56%
Idaho	1	30%	70%	36%	30%	28%
Illinois	3	58%	41%	62%	55%	55%
Indiana	3	41%	58%	50%	39%	41%
Iowa	3	48%	51%	54%	49%	49%
Kansas	2	40%	60%	42%	37%	37%
Kentucky	3	38%	62%	41%	40%	41%
Louisiana	3	38%	61%	40%	42%	45%
Maine	0	None	None	58%	54%	49%
Maryland	2	59%	40%	62%	56%	57%
Massachusetts	3	58%	42%	62%	62%	60%
Michigan	2	49%	50%	57%	51%	51%
Minnesota	3	51%	48%	54%	51%	48%
Mississippi	0	None	None	43%	40%	41%
Missouri	3	43%	56%	49%	46%	47%
Montana	0	None	None	47%	39%	33%
Nebraska	1	38%	61%	42%	33%	33%
Nevada	3	45%	55%	55%	48%	46%
New Hampshire	3	48%	51%	54%	50%	47%
New Jersey	1	53%	47%	57%	53%	56%
New Mexico	3	52%	48%	57%	49%	48%
New York	3	57%	42%	63%	58%	60%
North Carolina	3	42%	57%	50%	44%	43%
North Dakota	3	43%	55%	45%	36%	33%
Ohio	3	47%	52%	51%	49%	46%
Oklahoma	1	38%	62%	34%	34%	38%
Oregon	3	54%	46%	57%	51%	47%
Pennsylvania	3	48%	50%	54%	51%	51%
Rhode Island	3	58%	41%	63%	59%	61%
South Carolina	0	None	None	45%	41%	41%
South Dakota	3	44%	55%	45%	38%	38%
Tennessee	1	36%	62%	42%	43%	47%
Texas	3	40%	59%	44%	38%	38%
Utah	1	29%	69%	34%	26%	26%
Vermont	1	60%	39%	67%	59%	51%
Virginia	2	49%	51%	53%	45%	44%
Washington	3	54%	45%	57%	53%	50%
West Virginia	0	None	None	43%	43%	46%
Wisconsin	3	50%	50%	56%	50%	48%
Wyoming	1	31%	68%	33%	29%	28%
NATIONAL		49%	50%	53%	48%	48%

[Sam Spade]

I've been kind of lazy in doing the charts of state-by-state national averages, but here's the national numbers as of now:

All State Polls:  46% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Rasmussen (3-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Rasmussen (1-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 52% Disapprove
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

[Sam Spade]

I've been kind of lazy in doing the charts of state-by-state national averages, but here's the national numbers as of now:

All State Polls:  46% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Rasmussen (3-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Rasmussen (1-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 52% Disapprove
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

At the end of July, only minor changes.

All State Polls:  46% Approve (+/-0), 50% Disapprove (+/-0)
Rasmussen (3-poll) Only:  48% Approve (+/-0), 51% Disapprove (+/-0)
Rasmussen (1-poll) Only:  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+/-0)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  46% Approve (+1), 49% Disapprove (+/-0)

I may put up a state chart for all state polls soon.

[Sam Spade]

No chart, just list (don't feel like it)

Alabama: 41% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Alaska: 40% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Arizona: 44% Approve, 55% Disapprove
Arkansas: 34% Approve, 65% Disapprove
California: 54% Approve, 41% Disapprove
Colorado: 44% Approve, 54% Disapprove
Connecticut: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove
Delaware: 49% Approve, 48% Disapprove
Florida: 46% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Georgia: 40% Approve, 55% Disapprove
Hawaii: 72% Approve, 26% Disapprove
Idaho: 32% Approve, 68% Disapprove
Illinois: 54% Approve, 42% Disapprove
Indiana: 39% Approve, 57% Disapprove
Iowa: 47% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Kansas: 33% Approve, 65% Disapprove
Kentucky: 40% Approve, 57% Disapprove
Louisiana: 39% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Maine: 50% Approve, 49% Disapprove
Maryland: 55% Approve, 40% Disapprove
Massachusetts: 54% Approve, 46% Disapprove
Michigan: 48% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Minnesota: 50% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Mississippi: 37% Approve, 60% Disapprove
Missouri: 40% Approve, 55% Disapprove
Montana: 42% Approve, 57% Disapprove
Nebraska: 34% Approve, 66% Disapprove
Nevada: 42% Approve, 54% Disapprove
New Hampshire: 46% Approve, 52% Disapprove
New Jersey: 51% Approve, 46% Disapprove
New Mexico: 49% Approve, 48% Disapprove
New York: 53% Approve, 44% Disapprove
North Carolina: 45% Approve, 52% Disapprove
North Dakota: 40% Approve, 59% Disapprove
Ohio: 44% Approve, 53% Disapprove
Oklahoma: 36% Approve, 64% Disapprove
Oregon: 47% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Pennsylvania: 45% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Rhode Island: 50% Approve, 50% Disapprove
South Carolina: 44% Approve, 49% Disapprove
South Dakota: 40% Approve, 59% Disapprove
Tennessee: 42% Approve, 54% Disapprove
Texas: 37% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Utah: 33% Approve, 63% Disapprove
Vermont: 62% Approve, 37% Disapprove
Virginia: 49% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Washington: 51% Approve, 47% Disapprove
West Virginia: 32% Approve, 67% Disapprove
Wisconsin: 48% Approve, 49% Disapprove
Wyoming: 30% Approve, 70% Disapprove

[Sam Spade]

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I'd agree with that, especially considering the way Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia are acting.

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Democrats always overpoll in Alaska, so I would read too much into this number.

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The reversion to 2004 from 2008 effect is in application here, probably.  Much like Indiana, for example.

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If Obama's approval rating is really where it is right now, the deterioration should be strongest in white middle/upper-middle class suburbs outside the usual Southern areas (not DC suburbs or Miami, but otherwise).  As a subset of the group, I'd expect that, given Obama, the deterioration should be especially strong in areas where race is usually an issue and a problem.

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Rhode Island polling sucks.  Furthermore, it tends to overpoll Republicans.  Sure, Obama's lost ground, but not this much - there's no reason why.

[Sam Spade]

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)

[Sam Spade]

NY (Quinnipiac): 51-41

OH (Rasmussen): 45-54

CO (Rasmussen): 42-57

...

Interesting:

Rasmussen has 2 different results for Colorado: The Senate release has it 46-53, the Governor release 42-57 and both were conducted on the same day.

His last polls of Colorado had the same issue, iirc

[Sam Spade]

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)

Need to recorrect slightly...  Last changes will come through tomorrow.

All State Polls:  45% Approve (-1), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 46% Approve (-1), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve (-1), 50% Disapprove (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Btw, I'm going to probably do my 2-month joinup for premium Rasmussen that I also did in 2008. 

But I'm not sharing with pbrower - he's started ignoring most non-Rasmussen polls because they don't show the numbers remotely close to what he wants.  So, anything that gets him off this site is for the better.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, if anyone wants for me to share Rasmussen numbers, I'll happily do so privately.

Race-wise, it also looks to me like his national poll is weighted pretty close to 2008 exit polls, though his black numbers look closer to overall % of population (i.e. 13%, as opposed to 14%), and could be closer to 12%.

[Sam Spade]

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).

[Sam Spade]

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).

I've been looking at the range, and 50% Approve is out of range.  It had a range of 41-48 since August 1, 2010.

You interpret the range however you want - I'm just telling you what the internals say.

[Sam Spade]

To whet some partial appetites, Colorado is 43% approve, 55% disapprove.

[Sam Spade]

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)

Need to recorrect slightly...  Last changes will come through tomorrow.

All State Polls:  45% Approve (-1), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 46% Approve (-1), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve (-1), 50% Disapprove (+1)

For September.  I have narrowed the selection of polls for my average down to July, August and September.  The Fox News polls are included in all state polls, but no other group.  Numbers-wise, I don't think they'd change anything.

All State Polls:  44% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (uc), 52% Disapprove (uc)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (+1), 52% Disapprove (-1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  43% Approve (-2), 52% Disapprove (+2)