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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031432 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #7550 on: March 18, 2011, 08:33:04 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +5.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7551 on: March 18, 2011, 12:42:58 pm »

Gallup is 51-42 today (+1, -1).
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Penelope
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« Reply #7552 on: March 18, 2011, 12:53:20 pm »

Allright, any faith I once held in Rasmussen's polling is pretty much completely gone. Even a Fox News poll is showing more favorable numbers for the President.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #7553 on: March 18, 2011, 12:56:58 pm »

Allright, any faith I once held in Rasmussen's polling is pretty much completely gone. Even a Fox News poll is showing more favorable numbers for the President.

     I don't know about their current pollsters, but back when their polls were done by Opinion Dynamics they had a distinct Democratic lean. That FOX News is a conservative organization doesn't necessarily mean that their polls have a conservative bias.

     With that much said, I do doubt Rasmussen's polls here. They're showing the worst numbers for Obama by a large margin.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7554 on: March 18, 2011, 06:50:40 pm »

Allright, any faith I once held in Rasmussen's polling is pretty much completely gone. Even a Fox News poll is showing more favorable numbers for the President.

     I don't know about their current pollsters, but back when their polls were done by Opinion Dynamics they had a distinct Democratic lean. That FOX News is a conservative organization doesn't necessarily mean that their polls have a conservative bias.

     With that much said, I do doubt Rasmussen's polls here. They're showing the worst numbers for Obama by a large margin.

Yeah, all other polls (according to RCP) have Obama's approval between 49 and 51%.  Rassmusen at 45% is the outlier.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7555 on: March 19, 2011, 09:01:41 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%,  +1.


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J. J.
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« Reply #7556 on: March 20, 2011, 12:29:57 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  -1.

Definite erosion in Obama's numbers.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7557 on: March 20, 2011, 03:50:31 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  -1.

Definite erosion in Rasmussen's numbers.

Fixed.

There is a -3 swing in Gallup but it definitely has not been as continuous as this Rasmussen erosion.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7558 on: March 21, 2011, 03:33:32 am »

Montana, Mason-Dixon, but only an Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor poll:

Those polled were asked to rate the job performance of top Montana politicians and President Barack Obama in one of four categories: "excellent," "pretty good," "only fair" or "poor." The "excellent" and "pretty good" scores generally are combined to provide a positive job performance rating.

Montanans gave President Barack Obama a 40 percent job approval rating.

He fared considerably better with women than men in positive job performance scores. Women gave him 48 percent to men's 31 percent. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats gave the president a positive job performance score, while only 4 percent of Republicans did, while 38 percent of independents did.

The poll was done for the Gazette State Bureau by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., from March 14-16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_c37baa50-c4b2-555a-96ed-b7851b5d80ac.html

That probably means Obama has a 45% approval rating in Montana, because a lot of "fair"-people tend to "approve" ...
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J. J.
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« Reply #7559 on: March 21, 2011, 08:38:29 am »

[quote author=J. J. link=topic=91754.msg2848503#msg2848503
Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  u.


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CJK
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« Reply #7560 on: March 21, 2011, 12:39:55 pm »

He's at 46/44 on Gallup.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7561 on: March 21, 2011, 08:54:32 pm »

Montana, Mason-Dixon, but only an Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor poll:

Those polled were asked to rate the job performance of top Montana politicians and President Barack Obama in one of four categories: "excellent," "pretty good," "only fair" or "poor." The "excellent" and "pretty good" scores generally are combined to provide a positive job performance rating.

Montanans gave President Barack Obama a 40 percent job approval rating.

He fared considerably better with women than men in positive job performance scores. Women gave him 48 percent to men's 31 percent. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats gave the president a positive job performance score, while only 4 percent of Republicans did, while 38 percent of independents did.

The poll was done for the Gazette State Bureau by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., from March 14-16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_c37baa50-c4b2-555a-96ed-b7851b5d80ac.html

That probably means Obama has a 45% approval rating in Montana, because a lot of "fair"-people tend to "approve" ...

I show a  "scale of 1 to 5" poll for Georgia, but with an "S". I treated the "3"s as undecided.

EGFP and  and approval polls are apples to oranges.

PPP will soon be showing polls for Michigan and North Carolina. 31 electoral votes. We are likely to see more polls on Montana, including Presidential matchups.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7562 on: March 22, 2011, 07:19:09 am »

3 more polls today:

PPP/DailyKos: 47-47

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/17

CNN: 51-47

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/03/21/rel5b.pdf

ARG: 48-47

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/21/usobama-approval-48-appro_10_n_838706.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #7563 on: March 22, 2011, 08:54:46 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  u.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7564 on: March 22, 2011, 11:24:19 am »

CBS News Poll:

49% Approve
41% Disapprove

As they have been, views of President Obama are polarized by partisanship. 78% of Democrats approve of the job he is doing, but that drops to 18% among Republicans. Independents are more closely divided; 46% approve, and 39% disapprove.

Obama Handling Libya

50% Approve
29% Disapprove

Obama Handling US Response to Japan

73% Approve
14% Disapprove

This poll was conducted by telephone on March 18-21, 2011 among 1,022 adults nationwide. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_Libya_Japan_032211.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7565 on: March 22, 2011, 06:27:17 pm »

Portent on Michigan in the Presidential approval: the Governor is in the doghouse.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_0322925.pdf

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Michigan may simply be ungovernable. The GOP got its chance, and in Michigan it got to play its hand and played the wrong hand. Maybe Rick Snyder isn't as blatant as Scott, Walker, Kasich, and LePage. 

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7566 on: March 22, 2011, 08:38:59 pm »
« Edited: March 23, 2011, 11:19:53 am by pbrower2a »

Connecticut (even if it is Daily Kos and the union SEIU, it is by PPP).  


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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Whoops! I can't use it even if it seems reasonable because it has the sponsorship of a union known to be strongly Democratic. Furthermore, Swing State Project seems to be very much a Democratic group in view of its very loaded rhetoric.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7567 on: March 23, 2011, 01:55:20 am »

YESS ! Finally we got a DC poll ( I think this is the first DC poll ever):

District of Columbia/Clarus Poll:

88% Approve

The Clarus Poll was conducted March 21-22, 2011 with a sample of 500 registered voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. Interviews were conducted by live telephone interviewing specialists. Clarus conducted this survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarus-poll-of-dc-voters-mayor-gray-posts-negative-job-rating-118481494.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7568 on: March 23, 2011, 05:29:52 am »

California (Field Poll):



Re-elect Obama as President?

In this survey, California voters were asked whether they were inclined or not inclined to re-elect Obama to another term. The results show that 49% of voters currently favor his re-election, while 40% do not.

Obama’s re-election percentages in California compare favorably to those of his two immediate predecessors in office.

In July 2003, during the third year of Republican President George W. Bush’s first term, a Field Poll showed that California voters were about evenly split about his re-election — 46% inclined and 44% disinclined.. While Bush narrowly won reelection nationally, he ended up losing California to Democrat Senator John Kerry by ten points.

In 1995, during the third year of Democratic President Bill Clinton’s first term, more Californians were disinclined (56%) than inclined (36%) to re-elect him to another term. National polls at the time were showing similar sentiments among U.S. voters. However, the mood of voters here and countrywide swung around and Clinton was re-elected in 1996. In that election he carried California by thirteen points over Republican Senator Bob Dole.

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2011/03/22/15/fieldpoll.source.prod_affiliate.4.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7569 on: March 23, 2011, 08:39:22 am »

Two in the "I am not surprised" category, except that someone actually polled DC:

YESS ! Finally we got a DC poll ( I think this is the first DC poll ever):

District of Columbia/Clarus Poll:

88% Approve

The Clarus Poll was conducted March 21-22, 2011 with a sample of 500 registered voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. Interviews were conducted by live telephone interviewing specialists. Clarus conducted this survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarus-poll-of-dc-voters-mayor-gray-posts-negative-job-rating-118481494.html

Field, CA, 54-37

I don't have to assume anything about DC anymore.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, 90% blue


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[/quote]
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J. J.
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« Reply #7570 on: March 23, 2011, 08:50:03 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%,  -3.


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« Reply #7571 on: March 23, 2011, 08:54:09 am »

Looks like Scotty realized last week his numbers were more "outlier" than "selling the narrative" and trimmed sails accordingly. Roll Eyes
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7572 on: March 23, 2011, 11:05:13 am »

pbrower, you need to change your map for DC.

DC is still blue on it, it needs to be dark green.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7573 on: March 23, 2011, 11:22:53 am »

pbrower, you need to change your map for DC.

DC is still blue on it, it needs to be dark green.

It may be hard to tell that shade of green from midnight blue on the approval map, but I made the change. I also 'assimilated' DC into the national pattern as 'just another' three electoral votes that the President would get with 10% or more. Extreme deep red just doesn't show in a box.
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CJK
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« Reply #7574 on: March 23, 2011, 12:09:59 pm »

He's at 45/46 on Gallup today. So it's official: there's no Libya bounce at all.
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