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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030822 times)
Smid
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« Reply #7525 on: March 14, 2011, 10:51:37 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%,  +1.

It could be an over anti-Obama sample; if so, it should be out in the next three days.  There does appear some slight erosion in Obama's numbers.



101%?Huh

Probably a rounding error - 44.5% and 55.5% would round to 45% and 56%.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7526 on: March 15, 2011, 12:28:26 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%,  +1.

It could be an over anti-Obama sample; if so, it should be out in the next three days.  There does appear some slight erosion in Obama's numbers.



101%?Huh

Probably a rounding error - 44.5% and 55.5% would round to 45% and 56%.

No, a typo on my part; I just corrected it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7527 on: March 15, 2011, 01:16:18 am »

ABC News/Washington Post poll:

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 10-13, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1121a2%202011%20Politics.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #7528 on: March 15, 2011, 01:24:33 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%,  +1.

It could be an over anti-Obama sample; if so, it should be out in the next three days.  There does appear some slight erosion in Obama's numbers.



101%?Huh

It must be ACORN! Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #7529 on: March 15, 2011, 08:44:40 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  -1.

That 20% is the lowest Obama has ever been.  I strongly suspect it is just a bad sample.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7530 on: March 15, 2011, 10:54:16 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  -1.

That 20% is the lowest Obama has ever been.  I strongly suspect it is just a bad sample.

Probably is.  If i had to give a possible explanation however, I'd say that Gas prices are rearing their ugly head.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7531 on: March 15, 2011, 01:54:05 pm »

CNN:

50% Approve
47% Disapprove

Gallup:

45% Approve
46% Disapprove
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7532 on: March 15, 2011, 04:48:18 pm »

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_ME_0311.pdf

Maine is nearly homogeneous in its voting between its two districts, much unlike Nebraska.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  







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TXsaff
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« Reply #7533 on: March 15, 2011, 09:04:09 pm »

As per usual, Rasmussen numbers are incredibly lopsided.
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Franzl
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« Reply #7534 on: March 16, 2011, 08:29:10 am »

I agree it could easily be fuel prices that are taking his numbers down....but I've always wondered why so many people are stupid enough to base presidential approval on that.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7535 on: March 16, 2011, 08:34:26 am »

I agree it could easily be fuel prices that are taking his numbers down....but I've always wondered why so many people are stupid enough to base presidential approval on that.

Well it makes more sense than "OMG BAD STUFF IN LIBYA I HATE TEH PREZ".  At least Obama has some measure of control over gas prices.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7536 on: March 16, 2011, 09:02:41 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  -1.

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Dgov
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« Reply #7537 on: March 16, 2011, 09:11:38 am »

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  -1.
Should be 41% Strongly Disapprove (according to the link)
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Franzl
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« Reply #7538 on: March 16, 2011, 01:21:21 pm »

I agree it could easily be fuel prices that are taking his numbers down....but I've always wondered why so many people are stupid enough to base presidential approval on that.

Well it makes more sense than "OMG BAD STUFF IN LIBYA I HATE TEH PREZ".  At least Obama has some measure of control over gas prices.

What control?
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Dgov
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« Reply #7539 on: March 16, 2011, 01:41:19 pm »

I agree it could easily be fuel prices that are taking his numbers down....but I've always wondered why so many people are stupid enough to base presidential approval on that.

Well it makes more sense than "OMG BAD STUFF IN LIBYA I HATE TEH PREZ".  At least Obama has some measure of control over gas prices.

What control?

by "Some measure of Control" I mean that he can actually affect drilling policy and legislation regarding the energy market.  Far more control than say, a civil war in Libya or an Earthquake in Japan.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7540 on: March 16, 2011, 01:52:55 pm »

Today we have Gallup:

48% Approve (+3)
44% Disapprove (-2)

And 2 times PPP.

2012 PPP poll:

47% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0216424.pdf

DailyKos/PPP:

45% Approve
51% Disapprove

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/10

And YouGov (RV):

48% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/20110308trackingreport.pdf

Rasmussen looks like a weird outlier ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7541 on: March 17, 2011, 01:59:12 pm »

Rasmussen: 44-55 (+2, -1)

Gallup: 50-43 (+2, -1)

Ohio (PPP): 47-46

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0317925.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7542 on: March 17, 2011, 02:13:24 pm »
« Edited: March 17, 2011, 05:07:49 pm by pbrower2a »


Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0317513.pdf


No slam dunk for President Obama, but every imaginable GOP challenger is behind by at least 6&, which is wider than the President's narrow victory in Ohio in 2008. Significantly (if a different poll), Senator Sherrod Brown isn't in peril of having his Senate seat flipped.   It's not likely that Ohio is more D than the US at large.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7543 on: March 17, 2011, 02:19:46 pm »

PPP is very likely to poll Michigan next, thus making it likely that it will be "green" soon on the map.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7544 on: March 17, 2011, 02:32:34 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, +2.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%,  u.

While there was a slight bounceback, it looks like some actual erosion in Obama's Rasmussen numbers.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7545 on: March 17, 2011, 03:44:03 pm »

Obama's positive in Ohio again? Wow, the Republicans are really screwing up what ground they made up in the Midwest.
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PR
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« Reply #7546 on: March 17, 2011, 07:30:08 pm »

Also, Obama's been down recently in Gallup.  Not as bad as late last year, but he's back to 46% on a weekly poll for the first time since 2010.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146522/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Retreats.aspx

Though this seems to be mostly from non-whites (as he's gone from 89% to 81% among Blacks, and 64% to 51% among Hispanics), and Liberals (77% to 71%).

Well, Obama's base in 2008 was non-whites and liberals. Perhaps this shows that his policies (and those of the bipartisan Congress) anger his base more than they anger moderates.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7547 on: March 18, 2011, 01:50:13 am »

FOX News Poll:

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 913 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from March 14 to March 16. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/17/fox-news-poll-voters-obama-deficit
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7548 on: March 18, 2011, 07:14:01 am »

Obama's positive in Ohio again? Wow, the Republicans are really screwing up what ground they made up in the Midwest.

Well, they're running things again in these states... and the disturbing reality of that is setting in.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7549 on: March 18, 2011, 07:35:28 am »

A new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll shows the following:

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/some-encouraging-signs-for-the-president-20110318
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