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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031137 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #7450 on: February 27, 2011, 09:30:49 am »

North Carolina (Civitas Institute):

50% Approve
45% Disapprove

In January the President’s job performance rating stood at 45 percent approve – 49 percent disapprove. 

Democratic voters remain overall favorable (73 percent approve – 24 percent approve) while just 15 percent of Republican voters approve of the job he is doing.  Unaffiliated voters approve of Obama’s job performance by a 55 percent – 33 percent margin.

...

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted February 10, 12-13 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Obama-Perdue-Approval-February-11-PR-CTs.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7451 on: February 27, 2011, 09:34:41 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7452 on: February 27, 2011, 09:47:46 am »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA):

44% Excellent/Good
55% Fair/Poor

50% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/116983258.html
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change08
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« Reply #7453 on: February 27, 2011, 09:52:42 am »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA):

44% Excellent/Good
55% Fair/Poor

50% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/116983258.html

Again... fair being lumped with poor...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7454 on: February 27, 2011, 10:37:16 am »

North Carolina (Civitas Institute):

50% Approve
45% Disapprove

In January the President’s job performance rating stood at 45 percent approve – 49 percent disapprove. 

Democratic voters remain overall favorable (73 percent approve – 24 percent approve) while just 15 percent of Republican voters approve of the job he is doing.  Unaffiliated voters approve of Obama’s job performance by a 55 percent – 33 percent margin.

...

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted February 10, 12-13 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Obama-Perdue-Approval-February-11-PR-CTs.pdf

Not a 'likely voters' screen, but you can't really get a reliable screen this early. North Carolina draws huge attention these days.

Michigan (EPIC-MRA):

44% Excellent/Good
55% Fair/Poor

50% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/116983258.html

I can't use the EGFP poll of Michigan. "Fair" is too ambiguous to be useful. I'm surprised that Michigan hasn't been polled more often in view of its electoral size, a new Republican Governor, and a Senator up for re-election in 2012 with an economy in the sewer for the last 35 years.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  


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« Reply #7455 on: February 27, 2011, 03:48:45 pm »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7456 on: February 27, 2011, 05:26:56 pm »
« Edited: February 27, 2011, 07:07:00 pm by pbrower2a »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

I agree that it looks unusual. The state has been in the 50% approval area at the top and in the high 40's. Civitas could be high.

The last poll for Virginia was in December, and a new poll would be interesting.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #7457 on: February 27, 2011, 06:39:43 pm »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

     North Carolina has been acting oddly lately. It seems like the kind of state that could become a Democratic enclave in Republican country 10 years down the line.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7458 on: February 28, 2011, 10:14:18 am »

Rasmussen (28-02-2011)Sad

49% (nc) Approve
50% (-1) Disapprove

28% (+2) Strongly Approve
38%  (-1) Strongly Disapprove
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Franzl
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« Reply #7459 on: February 28, 2011, 10:25:15 am »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

     North Carolina has been acting oddly lately. It seems like the kind of state that could become a Democratic enclave in Republican country 10 years down the line.

Along with the rest of the "New South" (i.e. Virginia and North Carolina and perhaps Georgia long-term, but that's a stretch) and the West.

The Democratic coalition is shifting from an economically based "labor" base to a more progressive professional middle class support group.

Not a transition I'm sad to see happen.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #7460 on: February 28, 2011, 11:14:54 am »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

     North Carolina has been acting oddly lately. It seems like the kind of state that could become a Democratic enclave in Republican country 10 years down the line.

Along with the rest of the "New South" (i.e. Virginia and North Carolina and perhaps Georgia long-term, but that's a stretch) and the West.

The Democratic coalition is shifting from an economically based "labor" base to a more progressive professional middle class support group.

Not a transition I'm sad to see happen.
I agree, I wouldn't be surprised to have North Carolina and Virginia etc. vote more for the Democrats than Wisconsin or Michigan in a decade or two.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7461 on: February 28, 2011, 11:47:41 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.

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« Reply #7462 on: February 28, 2011, 02:33:05 pm »

Gallup
47% approve (-2)
44% disapprove (u)
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7463 on: February 28, 2011, 03:00:28 pm »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

     North Carolina has been acting oddly lately. It seems like the kind of state that could become a Democratic enclave in Republican country 10 years down the line.

Along with the rest of the "New South" (i.e. Virginia and North Carolina and perhaps Georgia long-term, but that's a stretch) and the West.

The Democratic coalition is shifting from an economically based "labor" base to a more progressive professional middle class support group.

Not a transition I'm sad to see happen.
I would say the impetus is the collapse of the Evangelical-Libertarian coalition of the Republicans.  The Democratic Party is just picking up the independents, which makes me wonder whether we will see a breakaway liberal movement in this decade or the next.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7464 on: March 01, 2011, 11:54:58 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7465 on: March 01, 2011, 08:14:50 pm »

Rhode Island, and you probably need a magnifying glass to see it.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_RI_0228.pdf

Quote
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Sarah Palin is so unpopular in Rhode Island that the state would probably wish that it were still a colony of Queen Elizabeth II if Caribou Barbie won the Presidency.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  


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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7466 on: March 01, 2011, 08:22:10 pm »

As it stands now, according to polling alone, a Palin loss would look something like this:

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America™
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« Reply #7467 on: March 01, 2011, 09:48:36 pm »

Nah, a Palin loss resembles this:




It would be one of the biggest landslides of all time. Hands down.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #7468 on: March 01, 2011, 10:52:12 pm »

South Carolina, a toss-up State?  Seriously?  This is one of the few States in which we already knew the eventual outcome for 2012, even back in December 2008.  The only real question is whether Obama can duplicate his wonderful performance from 2008 in 2012 or not.

The problem with your assumptions pbrower, is that when it comes to South Carolina, we have a very small fraction of the electorate at present that is truly independent, especially with respect to the national parties. Unless there is a real stinker of a candidate, there is only about 15% of the vote in play, with the GOP having a 45-40 advantage.  Even with a real stinker, a lot of that core is likelier to flip to a third party than to the other major party if a choice is available.  That's why despite running against a total joke, DeMint only got 61% of the vote compared to 28% for Greene and 9% for Clements, the only other name on the ballot.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7469 on: March 02, 2011, 09:50:53 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -3.

Disapprove 53%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +2.

This very well could be a bad sampling.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7470 on: March 02, 2011, 11:16:20 am »

PPP, Virginia. No magnifying glass necessary here.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_03021118.pdf



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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 75
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7471 on: March 02, 2011, 01:50:56 pm »

SurveyUSA's end-of-February polls are out:

California: 53-44

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 38-59

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 42-51

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washington: 46-48

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7472 on: March 02, 2011, 02:09:03 pm »


The only two with any credibility are those for California (changes nothing if accepted) and Kansas (probably right). The other two are hoots.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7473 on: March 02, 2011, 02:15:29 pm »

Washington could be right, but probably not.

Oregon is definitely off.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7474 on: March 02, 2011, 02:32:21 pm »

Tennessee (Middle Tennessee State University):

39% Approve
52% Disapprove

Poll interviews were conducted by telephone Feb. 14 – 26, 2011 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 589 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups.

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Spring2011report1.pdf
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