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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031437 times)
Zarn
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« Reply #7425 on: February 22, 2011, 07:08:50 am »

It's just Rasmussen. Gallup's Dissaproval actually went down one point today. My trust in Rasmussen continues to deteriorate.

Gallup is usually much worse...
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J. J.
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« Reply #7426 on: February 22, 2011, 10:05:20 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

The strongly approved number is the lowest ever.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7427 on: February 23, 2011, 01:58:49 am »

Texas (University of Texas / Texas Tribune):

36% Approve
55% Disapprove

Field dates: February 11-17, 2011
N=800 registered voters; margin of error = +/-3.46 unless otherwise noted
Note: due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100

http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-SummaryDoc-day2.pdf
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7428 on: February 23, 2011, 02:21:08 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

The strongly approved number is the lowest ever.

Lol... I'm having a really hard time believing these numbers
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7429 on: February 23, 2011, 06:36:10 am »

NY (Quinnipiac):

53-41

From February 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,457 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1560
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J. J.
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« Reply #7430 on: February 23, 2011, 09:37:36 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +2.

Disapprove 53%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

A bad sample has dropped out, but Obama's numbers are still down.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7431 on: February 23, 2011, 10:34:44 am »

University of Texas, Texas; Q in New York. Texas polling is erratic in the extreme, except that President Obama is unlikely to win the state.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
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Zarn
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« Reply #7432 on: February 23, 2011, 12:45:13 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

The strongly approved number is the lowest ever.

Lol... I'm having a really hard time believing these numbers

They were even lower than that at other points. It's not surprising at all.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7433 on: February 23, 2011, 02:43:13 pm »

Gallup has Obama at 47% (+1) approve to 45% (u) dissaprove.

Obama's numbers are lower than during the Tuscon bounce, but are still better than before the bounce.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7434 on: February 23, 2011, 02:51:12 pm »

This may be evidence of some slipping in the polls.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 44%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 9%


Note: because Obama would  lose a match with Huckabee in North Carolina, I must show him losing the state. New rule, but it isn't to the advantage of the President, so it is statistically conservative:




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 18
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

A new dark green category shows that the President would win against one of Huckabee and Romney, but not both. 




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 65
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7435 on: February 23, 2011, 02:52:48 pm »

Gallup has Obama at 47% (+1) approve to 45% (u) dissaprove.

Obama's numbers are lower than during the Tuscon bounce, but are still better than before the bounce.

Maybe voters dislike volatility (Libya, Wisconsin, oil prices).

Anything has to be better than Qaddafi in Libya, right?
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Penelope
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« Reply #7436 on: February 23, 2011, 11:05:28 pm »

We're reading too much into them, most likely.
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memphis
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« Reply #7437 on: February 23, 2011, 11:19:20 pm »

Gallup has a 2010 approval number for each state. Obviously not current, but still interesting. MS seems strangely high and NH seems strangely low, but maybe there is some MoE.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146294/Hawaii-Approving-Obama-States-Decline.aspx
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J. J.
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« Reply #7438 on: February 24, 2011, 09:40:09 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

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Badlands17
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« Reply #7439 on: February 24, 2011, 06:54:37 pm »
« Edited: February 24, 2011, 06:56:55 pm by Badlands17 »

Gallup has a 2010 approval number for each state. Obviously not current, but still interesting. MS seems strangely high and NH seems strangely low, but maybe there is some MoE.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146294/Hawaii-Approving-Obama-States-Decline.aspx

I would imagine a lot of the disapproval brewing in VT (where he lost approval compared to '09 more than any other state) is coming from the left, but it's probably experiencing an effect like NH and ME have to a lesser extent, with above-average movement toward the Reps. The libertarianish history of these states likely clashed with Obama's big government policies.

I find it interesting that MS is the state where Obama's approval deteriorated the least; I'd imagine this is because he is a love-hate figure among the electorate there and there weren't many people he could turn off his administration. You can see where states like CO, TX, and NM are likely trending Dem. Interestingly, WI had below average depreciation in Obama's approval but was almost in the top 5 states in terms of change in party ID.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7440 on: February 25, 2011, 09:42:54 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
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« Reply #7441 on: February 25, 2011, 10:52:16 am »

VT approval at 53% makes no sense.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7442 on: February 25, 2011, 12:43:44 pm »
« Edited: February 25, 2011, 01:40:57 pm by pbrower2a »

Des Moines Register, Selzer:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110225/NEWS09/102250348/Obama-s-Iowa-rating-ticks-upward-do-2012-political-challenges

Quote
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Selzer does few polls, but does them well.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   92
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 78
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   92
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 76
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7443 on: February 25, 2011, 01:44:37 pm »


Obama's standing among Iowa 2012 Likely Voters is slightly worse:

"Iowa's likely voters are somewhat more critical of the president than Iowans in general. More poll respondents who say they plan to definitely vote in 2012 disapprove of Obama's performance than approve, 49 percent to 46 percent. But among all Iowans, the percentage who are satisfied with Obama has inched slightly higher than those who are not for the first time since the Register's November 2009 poll."

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110225/NEWS09/102250348/Obama-s-Iowa-rating-ticks-upward-as-do-2012-political-challenges
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TXsaff
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« Reply #7444 on: February 25, 2011, 02:13:09 pm »

No matchup polls? That would have been interesting to see.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7445 on: February 25, 2011, 02:20:46 pm »

No matchup polls? That would have been interesting to see.

Maybe in the coming days ...
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J. J.
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« Reply #7446 on: February 26, 2011, 09:33:08 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7447 on: February 27, 2011, 01:21:39 am »

Btw, Gallup is 50-42 (+2, -2) now.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7448 on: February 27, 2011, 08:19:47 am »

Wait, no page 500 celebration?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7449 on: February 27, 2011, 08:30:48 am »


Now that you mention it, let's party:

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