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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031434 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #7400 on: February 17, 2011, 08:27:59 am »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

PPP has yet to poll the Deep South. It may have polled about everything from New York State to Florida along the Atlantic Coast, the Rust Belt, and California.  So far --'

1. President Obama has recent statewide approval ratings much lower than the levels that he got elected by in the area between roughly Minneapolis and Philadelphia. Those approval ratings are accompanied by evidence that he would still win, but not with the monster numbers that he showed in 2008.

2. So far, all PPP matchups suggest (although some are in the margin of error) that president Obama would win everything that he won in 2008 except perhaps Indiana (which prohibits automated polling and makes it very expensive).  There is no evidence that suggests that President Obama would lose any state that he won by at least 8%.

3. The flip side is that PPP so far shows no evidence that President Obama could defeat either Mitt Romney pr Mike Huckabee anywhere that he failed to win in 2008 -- not even Missouri, Montana, Georgia, or Arizona.

4. President Obama so far has an advantage in a 50-50 split of  the popular vote in that although he remains seen favorably by comparatively small margins in slightly more than half the states he is still wildly unpopular in most of the rest. Such seems to reflect the conditions of November 2008.

Sure, PPP will release a poll on Tennessee soon, and that one may show whether the President is making gains in the non-coastal South. If I should see an approval rating for him above 45%, then I may see a portent of a 400-EV landslide against any possible Republican. Until then, the Democrats continue to face a reality that President Obama is the wrong sort of Democrat to appeal to white Southerners who might have voted for Bill Clinton.

6. This is before we have any real idea of who will be the Republican nominee for president. All that we can do is to establish who won;t be.


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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7401 on: February 17, 2011, 09:23:38 am »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

OMGZZZZ!!!!
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J. J.
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« Reply #7402 on: February 17, 2011, 10:00:46 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7403 on: February 17, 2011, 01:50:04 pm »

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac):

51% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1559

Tennessee (PPP):

42% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0217.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7404 on: February 17, 2011, 02:15:46 pm »

Tennessee, PPP, as promised. The President would be close if he contested it, but he probably wouldn't win it. Barack Obama is the wrong sort of campaigner to win this state. My gut feeling suggests that President Obama would get no more than 46% of the vote there, but my system makes sense in most cases. 

I am averaging the PPP poll with a recent poll by Nashville's Vanderbilt University.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0217.pdf

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  







(note: I am averaging the results for Sarah Palin between Vanderbilt and PPP. PPP has her tied with Obama).
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Dgov
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« Reply #7405 on: February 17, 2011, 09:55:36 pm »

Gallup Polled Obama versus "the Republican candidate" and had them tied 46-46, with Obama having basically the same voting base as he did in 2008.  The significant differences they found in their poll were that:

1) Obama did markedly worse with younger voters, winning them only 51-44 compared to 63-33 in their last pre-2008 election poll.

2) Obama won less of the Non-White Vote than in 2008 (they didn't post the non-white 2008 numbers, but in their last pre-2008 poll Obama won Blacks 92%-3% and Hispanics 74%-20%, with the latter term having a lot of variability week-to-week.  Both of these are much higher than the 63% of "non-whites" he's winning in this poll).

It's worth noting though that their last pre-2008 poll had Obama winning 52%-41% overall, so those number might have been slight overestimates of Obama's support at the time, and that both of the above totals represent lower support for him than the 2010 CNN Exit Poll Numbers for the National house races.

Here's the latest Gallup Poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146138/Nameless-Republican-Ties-Obama-2012-Election-Preferences.aspx

Here's the 2008 one:

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Key%2bIndicators.aspx
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J. J.
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« Reply #7406 on: February 18, 2011, 10:02:54 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -2.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +2.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7407 on: February 19, 2011, 08:45:08 am »

That's a weird anti-Obama sample.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7408 on: February 19, 2011, 01:51:59 pm »


Yeah, he's up at 51% in Gallup today.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7409 on: February 19, 2011, 04:05:25 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

It isn't really unusual.  The actual approval rate could be about 47-48 percent.  The numbers over the past fortnight could just be in three points of that.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #7410 on: February 19, 2011, 04:26:57 pm »

Gallup has Obama at 51% approval, 42% dissaproval.
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TXsaff
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« Reply #7411 on: February 19, 2011, 05:13:41 pm »

Rasmussen is being moody.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7412 on: February 19, 2011, 06:30:45 pm »


Scott probably just wants to show people how unpopular those socialists in Wisconsin are making their socialist president among heartland Americans.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7413 on: February 20, 2011, 09:57:09 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

This could normal wobble, a bad sample, or real movement.  We should wait until midweek.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7414 on: February 20, 2011, 12:32:41 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

This could normal wobble, a bad sample, or real movement.  We should wait until midweek.

Could it be Wisconsin?  Also, he just went way up to 51/42 in Gallup yesterday, which is interesting.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7415 on: February 20, 2011, 12:49:32 pm »

Rasmussen is looking like a bizzare outlier on the RCP average. Reminds me of the early days when everyone else had Obama in the 60s and Rasmussen had him a good ten points lower.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7416 on: February 20, 2011, 12:57:51 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

This could normal wobble, a bad sample, or real movement.  We should wait until midweek.

Could it be Wisconsin?  Also, he just went way up to 51/42 in Gallup yesterday, which is interesting.

Watch statewide polling.  If you should see polling in North Carolina or Ohio in the low 40s, then you might see a movement that suggests big trouble for the President.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #7417 on: February 20, 2011, 01:20:22 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2011, 01:31:28 pm by Icefire9 »

Rasmussen is looking like a bizzare outlier on the RCP average. Reminds me of the early days when everyone else had Obama in the 60s and Rasmussen had him a good ten points lower.
It could be another weird coincidence, only with Gallup having a good Obama sample and Rasmussen having a bad one.

Still, I don't trust Rasmussen's numbers, I normally go with Gallup.

Edit: Gallup is at 48% approve, 44% dissaprove.
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anvi
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« Reply #7418 on: February 20, 2011, 02:08:03 pm »

I would argue, based on some interesting polls released by PEW recently, that neither the current budget battle (at least not yet) nor the Wisconsin standoff are having much of an effect on Obama's numbers.

Regarding the budget fight, PEW polls confirm that Americans, though they favor spending cuts, also favor the retention of government programs.   This general indecision on the part of the American people probably cancels out trends that periodically go in one or another direction.
http://people-press.org/report/702/

At the same time, support and opposition to public and private sector unions remains relatively equally split.  I would take this to indicate that people nationwide aren't that moved one way or the other by what Obama says about the crisis, though it will effect support in the state itself.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1897/favorability-labor-unions-salary-american-worker-productivity-public-sector

I strongly suspect that Obama's approvals these days, as opposed to most of 2009 and some of 2010 when their was a big "independent flight" and more accentuated Republican disapproval, are mostly effected by downturns in liberal support as issues come across the tv screen and internet.  JMO.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #7419 on: February 20, 2011, 04:00:52 pm »

Gallup Polled Obama versus "the Republican candidate" and had them tied 46-46, with Obama having basically the same voting base as he did in 2008.  The significant differences they found in their poll were that:

1) Obama did markedly worse with younger voters, winning them only 51-44 compared to 63-33 in their last pre-2008 election poll.

2) Obama won less of the Non-White Vote than in 2008 (they didn't post the non-white 2008 numbers, but in their last pre-2008 poll Obama won Blacks 92%-3% and Hispanics 74%-20%, with the latter term having a lot of variability week-to-week.  Both of these are much higher than the 63% of "non-whites" he's winning in this poll).

It's worth noting though that their last pre-2008 poll had Obama winning 52%-41% overall, so those number might have been slight overestimates of Obama's support at the time, and that both of the above totals represent lower support for him than the 2010 CNN Exit Poll Numbers for the National house races.

Here's the latest Gallup Poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146138/Nameless-Republican-Ties-Obama-2012-Election-Preferences.aspx

Here's the 2008 one:

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Key%2bIndicators.aspx

The thing is, both of those groups are vastly more likely to support generic Republican than any of the Republicans actually likely to win the nomination.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7420 on: February 21, 2011, 10:50:56 am »
« Edited: February 21, 2011, 01:53:28 pm by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I would expect that Obama's Disapprove numbers are higher than his Approve numbers, but I would this to be a bad sample.  If so, we might see a 3-5 point drop in disapproval tomorrow or Wednesday.  If these still look like this on Wednesday, there has been erosion, perhaps dramatic.
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« Reply #7421 on: February 21, 2011, 01:03:03 pm »

Gallup is holding steady at 48% approve, 43% dissaprove (-1).  It seems to be just Rassmusen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7422 on: February 21, 2011, 01:59:59 pm »

Newsweek/Daily Beast/Penn, Schoen & Berland:

50% Approve
44% Disapprove

The Newsweek/Daily Beast Poll was conducted with a representative sample of the national population with 918 likely voters. The fieldwork took place between Saturday, February 12 and Tuesday, February 15, 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/-3.5 percent.

Douglas Schoen is a political strategist and author of Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System published by Harper, an imprint of HarperCollins. Schoen has worked on numerous campaigns, including those of Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, Evan Bayh, Tony Blair, and Ed Koch.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-21/obama-hits-50-percent-approval-rating-according-to-new-newsweekdaily-beast-poll/?cid=hp:mainpromo3
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Penelope
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« Reply #7423 on: February 22, 2011, 12:50:18 am »

It's just Rasmussen. Gallup's Dissaproval actually went down one point today. My trust in Rasmussen continues to deteriorate.
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« Reply #7424 on: February 22, 2011, 01:37:38 am »

It's just Rasmussen. Gallup's Dissaproval actually went down one point today. My trust in Rasmussen continues to deteriorate.

Well they have their own secret sauce likely voter model, which in the very GOP friendly 2010 election actually showed the GOP with even more gains, predicting even more GOP seats and senators. It almost looks like they are still using the same model even though 2012 should have a younger and less white electorate. It would be nice if Ras included their RV numbers (or do they somewhere?)
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