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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030469 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #7375 on: February 10, 2011, 02:45:36 am »

NH (WMUR/University of New Hampshire)Sad

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

(Gov. Lynch)

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

The poll of 520 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Jan. 27 through Feb. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

http://www.wmur.com/r/26810384/detail.html

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/granite-state-poll.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7376 on: February 10, 2011, 03:26:13 am »

NH (WMUR/University of New Hampshire)Sad

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

(Gov. Lynch)

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

The poll of 520 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Jan. 27 through Feb. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

http://www.wmur.com/r/26810384/detail.html

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/granite-state-poll.html

Note: no matchups were shown.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 78
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  





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J. J.
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« Reply #7377 on: February 10, 2011, 09:56:15 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, u.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7378 on: February 10, 2011, 12:29:30 pm »

Those NH numbers seem pretty weird considering the other recent numbers. Uni polls...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7379 on: February 10, 2011, 12:30:58 pm »

pbrower goes back on ignore once again.

Favoring PPP over others is biased. You know PPP is a liberal leaning polling source right? Enough of the gibberish nonsense.

Wrong. PPP was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2010 and has a slight Republican bias.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7380 on: February 11, 2011, 01:56:32 am »

FOX News apparently dumped their pollster Opinion Research and now has 2 new pollsters, 1 Democratic and 1 Republican:

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 911 registered voters, and was conducted February 7-9, 2011 in the evenings.

Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.

Results based on the full sample have a margin of error of ± 3%. Results among subgroups have larger sampling errors, including: Democrats (n = 389) ± 5%; Republicans (n = 354) ± 5%; Independents (n = 147) ± 8%.

LV = likely voters

Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021011_Obama_econ_web.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7381 on: February 11, 2011, 09:34:22 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, u.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7382 on: February 12, 2011, 01:09:03 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -2.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +2.

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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7383 on: February 12, 2011, 01:39:11 pm »

Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Approve 48% (+1)
Dissaprove 44% (--)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7384 on: February 12, 2011, 04:43:13 pm »

NH (WMUR/University of New Hampshire)Sad

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

(Gov. Lynch)

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

The poll of 520 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Jan. 27 through Feb. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

http://www.wmur.com/r/26810384/detail.html

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/granite-state-poll.html

Note: no matchups were shown.

But this new poll does show them. It comes from a Republican pollster (Magellan), and it is close enough in time to require averaging.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM185_nhjournalpoll21111.pdf

The average comes out 48-46.5.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  






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J. J.
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« Reply #7385 on: February 13, 2011, 09:53:16 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +1.

There has somewhat less polarization.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7386 on: February 14, 2011, 10:21:00 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

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Penelope
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« Reply #7387 on: February 14, 2011, 01:28:22 pm »

Gallup is 49-43 today.
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America™
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« Reply #7388 on: February 14, 2011, 07:02:02 pm »

End of month prediction: 44-56   
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7389 on: February 14, 2011, 07:11:00 pm »

I'm going to say 47-53
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Penelope
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« Reply #7390 on: February 14, 2011, 08:46:32 pm »

I'll go with 53-44.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7391 on: February 14, 2011, 08:53:29 pm »

Not really sure why you guys are expecting so much movement either way...
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Penelope
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« Reply #7392 on: February 14, 2011, 08:56:13 pm »

Not really sure why you guys are expecting so much movement either way...

Well, I don't think it'll be much of a movement, IIRC Obama's approval would only have to go up 4 points in the next 2 weeks. Besides, his approval isn't going to stay where it has been in 2010, people are going to begin making up their minds on his Presidency soon.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7393 on: February 15, 2011, 01:19:28 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7394 on: February 16, 2011, 01:29:50 am »

PPP/DailyKos:

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/2/11

Democracy Corps:

51% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor020911fq2.dcorps.pdf

CBS News:

48% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/110215_cbsnews_poll.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7395 on: February 16, 2011, 09:47:10 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.

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Dgov
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« Reply #7396 on: February 16, 2011, 11:51:08 am »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7397 on: February 16, 2011, 12:47:41 pm »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?
I was thinking about that haha
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7398 on: February 16, 2011, 01:53:13 pm »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

OMGZZZZ!!!!
Elaine Marshall's pimp!!11111
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ShamDam
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« Reply #7399 on: February 16, 2011, 08:31:55 pm »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

I think it's just the matchups that are much more friendly. roughly 47% approval could somewhat easily translate to a 2008-style victory if the opponent is weak enough, and I think that's what the state-by-state polling is showing.
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