The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1275281 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6950 on: December 23, 2010, 09:37:01 AM »




Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +4.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

There still might be a pro-Obama daily in there.  It might drop out tomorrow.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6951 on: December 23, 2010, 04:21:12 PM »


No change here:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  66
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 52
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  66
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 29
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  47
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6952 on: December 24, 2010, 10:32:54 AM »

New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

50% Approve
45% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1545

Virginia (Roanoke College):

36% Approve
52% Disapprove
12% "Mixed"

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/harrywilson/Dec2010Freqs4.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #6953 on: December 24, 2010, 10:33:51 AM »



Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

A pro-Obama sample dropped.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6954 on: December 24, 2010, 10:36:04 AM »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.


Or a pro-Obama sample dropped.

Now, long term, Obama is up from his lows.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6955 on: December 24, 2010, 03:32:06 PM »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.


Or a pro-Obama sample dropped.

Now, long term, Obama is up from his lows.

Exactly my point.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6956 on: December 24, 2010, 03:36:11 PM »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.


Or a pro-Obama sample dropped.

Now, long term, Obama is up from his lows.

Exactly my point.


Which I noted a month or two ago.  These changes over 2-4 days have more to do with samples than a long term trend.  Don't confuse the difference over a week with long term trends.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6957 on: December 24, 2010, 04:25:03 PM »

I think this was not posted yet:

SurveyUSA's approval ratings in some states for December (conducted Dec. 13).

California: 51-41

Kansas: 31-66

Oregon: 40-57 (LOL)

Washington: 49-47
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6958 on: December 24, 2010, 06:08:11 PM »

SurveyUSA must get its act together or they will become a laughingstock like ARG.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6959 on: December 24, 2010, 08:43:53 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2010, 08:52:17 PM by pbrower2a »

NJ update. Q is reliable enough. The one from Roanoke College for Virginia has a severe fault in the distribution of statewide population. Northern Virginia is far more populous than the very rural Shenandoah Valley, and any Virginia poll that skews rural will skew heavily Republican.  


SurveyUSA seems about right on Kansas,  is a joke on Oregon (misprint?) , and says nothing that nobody else doesn't say about the others.

 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 52
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 51
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  
6



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  47
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  
6


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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #6960 on: December 25, 2010, 12:21:49 AM »

Doubt it's a misprint, if it were then it would of been corrected.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6961 on: December 25, 2010, 03:25:18 AM »

Itīs not a misprint, rather a huge outlier. Just look at 18-34 year olds:

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J. J.
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« Reply #6962 on: December 25, 2010, 09:52:57 AM »

Probably nothing from Rasmussen over the holiday.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6963 on: December 25, 2010, 11:00:43 AM »

So far, what isn't shown? I acknowledge that Vermont, Maryland, Utah, and Oklahoma are foregone conclusions.

The closest states of 2008 not yet shown were Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, both Dakotas, and South Carolina.   NE-01 and NE-02 are in this category (although NE-03 would be among the last electoral votes that Obama could ever win, and it is R enough that it makes Nebraska about as R as Kansas.

I'd like to see South Dakota, if only to see how well John Thune would do there -- and Indiana, which has Mitch Daniels (better known in Indiana than elsewhere). Texas is its own political world. Any Republican who can't win Texas against President Obama would set up an Obama landslide if nominated. Just by adding Texas to the electoral votes that Obama won in 2008 pushes the President near 400 electoral votes (393), and I can't see Obama winning Texas without picking up Missouri and Georgia and making some Southern states and Arizona very close. 

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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #6964 on: December 25, 2010, 11:18:15 AM »

::facepalm::  I would suggest changing Oregon to a midshade of blue (temporarily)
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6965 on: December 25, 2010, 11:42:31 AM »

I agree!  Obama surely could win Kansas, but Republicans could never win Oregon!
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6966 on: December 26, 2010, 05:45:52 PM »

it's hilarious that some people here think SurveyUSA is a joke.

These guys kicked PPP's ass two election cyles in a row.  I guess the Democrat Party folks here are going to argue that surveyusa changes its results at the very end to fit reality.   PPP did the same thing.  Some people here forget that PPP showed Perry and Paul in toss-ups in the summer.

As for the Roanoke poll, since when did college pollsters become conservative-leaning?  That poll is of residents, meaning that it should be favorable to Obama.  There's no reason to believe PPP over Roanoke. They both may be at the extremes but I would posit that if you are willing to disbelieve the Roanoke poll, I would disbelieve the PPP one as well considering that it's unlikely for Obama to be at 50% in Virginia based on where he is nationally.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #6967 on: December 26, 2010, 06:50:04 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2010, 06:51:46 PM by MagneticFree »

I'll just throw those Survey USA polls in this map for fun, it would look somewhat like this for 2012

Generic Rep - 284
Obama - 254
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #6968 on: December 26, 2010, 06:57:34 PM »

This is a Democrat's dream for Obama's 2012 reelection

Obama - 405
Reactionist - 133
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change08
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« Reply #6969 on: December 26, 2010, 07:03:47 PM »

This is a Democrat's dream for Obama's 2012 reelection

Obama - 405
Reactionist - 133


+Texas and the Dakotas.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6970 on: December 27, 2010, 11:51:42 AM »


Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6971 on: December 28, 2010, 01:53:25 AM »

I think this was not posted yet:

SurveyUSA's approval ratings in some states for December (conducted Dec. 13).

California: 51-41

Kansas: 31-66

Oregon: 40-57 (LOL)

Washington: 49-47

I forgot Ohio:

40% Approve
57% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8746f46b-86d3-45cc-80d7-676b06263d0e
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6972 on: December 28, 2010, 01:55:50 AM »

SurveyUSA suggests that a lot of white liberals/moderates are unhappy with Obama.

However, SurveyUSA's actually crosstabs are extremely favorable to Obama and the Democrat Party.  SUSA shows that conservatives only have a 31/24 lead over liberals in the state or that there are 13% more Democrats than Republicans.

So SUSA isn't really finding overly conservative samples.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6973 on: December 28, 2010, 01:57:56 AM »

SurveyUSA suggests that a lot of white liberals/moderates are unhappy with Obama.

However, SurveyUSA's actually crosstabs are extremely favorable to Obama and the Democrat Party.  SUSA shows that conservatives only have a 31/24 lead over liberals in the state or that there are 13% more Democrats than Republicans.

So SUSA isn't really finding overly conservative samples.

Their approval polls have always been trash, their general election polls are OK.

Thereīs absolutely no way Obama is at 40% in Oregon, when he's at 48% nationally (Rasmussen).
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6974 on: December 28, 2010, 02:00:35 AM »

Ok Tender, I'll play along.

There is no way Obama is at 46% nationally in Gallup and then for PPP to show Obama at 46% approval in North Carolina or 50% in Virginia or 45% in Florida.

I'm just utilizing your logic.
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