The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5575 on: August 05, 2010, 02:07:47 PM »

NC needs to be red in your map and MN needs to be completely white.
Thanks, didn't notice NC, and for MN, the only time the map deals with the disapproval number is when its approval is under 50% but still higher than disapproval, so all the map is noting is that approval is at 44%. Had disapproval been any higher, it would be yellow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5576 on: August 05, 2010, 02:11:35 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.


Strongly Approve is at the upper end of range.  Keep an eye on it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5577 on: August 05, 2010, 02:12:23 PM »

NC needs to be red in your map and MN needs to be completely white.
Thanks, didn't notice NC, and for MN, the only time the map deals with the disapproval number is when its approval is under 50% but still higher than disapproval, so all the map is noting is that approval is at 44%. Had disapproval been any higher, it would be yellow.

Yeah, but a tie should be white. Pbrower is also not using it ... Your maps assume Obama´s in negative territory in MN, yet the undecideds could easily put him above 50% or at least into positive territory. *grrml*
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5578 on: August 05, 2010, 02:27:47 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2010, 12:14:35 AM by SE Gov. JBrase »

MI ,NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #5579 on: August 05, 2010, 07:09:23 PM »

http://www.examiner.com/x-47431-Chicago-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m8d3-Obama-Approval-Rating-As-different-as-Black-and-White

A recent Gallup poll shows that President Barack Obama’s approval rating definitely follows race lines. While 88% of American Blacks rate the President well, only 38% of Whites do the same.

Approve of President Obama

Blacks: 88%
Whites: 38%

That's a 50% gap. Astounding.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5580 on: August 06, 2010, 12:01:40 AM »

NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Thx Smiley

Maybe pbrower will now also see that a tie needs its own colour.

BTW:

Michigan (Rasmussen): 54-46
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5581 on: August 06, 2010, 12:14:06 AM »

NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Thx Smiley

Maybe pbrower will now also see that a tie needs its own colour.

BTW:

Michigan (Rasmussen): 54-46
you got them backwards, its 46-54. no color change, but I do need to put an 8 on there now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5582 on: August 06, 2010, 12:15:28 AM »

NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Thx Smiley

Maybe pbrower will now also see that a tie needs its own colour.

BTW:

Michigan (Rasmussen): 54-46
you got them backwards, its 46-54. no color change, but I do need to put an 8 on there now.

Ah sry, of course its 46-54 ...
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5583 on: August 06, 2010, 12:26:18 AM »

NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Thx Smiley

Maybe pbrower will now also see that a tie needs its own colour.

BTW:

Michigan (Rasmussen): 54-46
you got them backwards, its 46-54. no color change, but I do need to put an 8 on there now.

Ah sry, of course its 46-54 ...
I was just looking over that poll, I want to know who are the 5% in Michigan who rate their economy as excellent Huh
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5584 on: August 06, 2010, 12:32:21 AM »

NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Thx Smiley

Maybe pbrower will now also see that a tie needs its own colour.

BTW:

Michigan (Rasmussen): 54-46
you got them backwards, its 46-54. no color change, but I do need to put an 8 on there now.

Ah sry, of course its 46-54 ...
I was just looking over that poll, I want to know who are the 5% in Michigan who rate their economy as excellent Huh

Wealthy folks. As long as they have the money, it doesn´t matter to them what the overall economy is like. They only care for themselves.
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Zarn
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« Reply #5585 on: August 06, 2010, 06:36:37 AM »

NC, KS, CA, OH & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Thx Smiley

Maybe pbrower will now also see that a tie needs its own colour.

BTW:

Michigan (Rasmussen): 54-46
you got them backwards, its 46-54. no color change, but I do need to put an 8 on there now.

Ah sry, of course its 46-54 ...
I was just looking over that poll, I want to know who are the 5% in Michigan who rate their economy as excellent Huh

Wealthy folks. As long as they have the money, it doesn´t matter to them what the overall economy is like. They only care for themselves.

"Wealthy folks" also tend to lose money. Also, they aren't stupid.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5586 on: August 06, 2010, 09:01:13 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.


Strongly Approve is now the highest it has been in a month.  If it holds or improves through Monday (even above 29%), Obama has improved slightly.  If there is a big drop, it is merely a bad sample.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5587 on: August 06, 2010, 09:28:57 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2010, 09:57:53 AM by pbrower2a »

North Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure



PPP had 46%; Rasmussen has 42%. Within two days by reputable and different pollsters, so an average.

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove

I do not average polls by the same pollster; the latter one takes precedence.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5588 on: August 06, 2010, 12:24:45 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.


Strongly Approve is now the highest it has been in a month.  If it holds or improves through Monday (even above 29%), Obama has improved slightly.  If there is a big drop, it is merely a bad sample.

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Possible explanation:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good news, or at least the absence of bad news (even if the bad news is the result of things for which the President is in no way culpable for, like the undersea oil spill resulting from Deepwater Horizon) is good for the President's approval rating.   
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #5589 on: August 06, 2010, 12:27:21 PM »

North Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure



PPP had 46%; Rasmussen has 42%. Within two days by reputable and different pollsters, so an average.

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove

I do not average polls by the same pollster; the latter one takes precedence.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




Why is NC white on your map?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5590 on: August 06, 2010, 12:51:41 PM »

SD (Rasmussen): 41-58
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5591 on: August 06, 2010, 01:20:54 PM »


I averaged a Rasmussen and a PPP poll a couple days apart.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5592 on: August 06, 2010, 06:00:27 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2010, 10:03:52 PM by pbrower2a »

Delaware State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 5, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

40% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
38% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

South Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  
    20% Strongly approve
    21% Somewhat approve
    11% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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J. J.
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« Reply #5593 on: August 06, 2010, 06:02:08 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.


Strongly Approve is now the highest it has been in a month.  If it holds or improves through Monday (even above 29%), Obama has improved slightly.  If there is a big drop, it is merely a bad sample.

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Possible explanation:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good news, or at least the absence of bad news (even if the bad news is the result of things for which the President is in no way culpable for, like the undersea oil spill resulting from Deepwater Horizon) is good for the President's approval rating.   

I think the positive coverage has tended to be higher.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #5594 on: August 06, 2010, 09:54:52 PM »

Gallup: 45/49

It's fair to say that Rasmussen is no longer an outlier in terms of obama's approval ratings.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5595 on: August 07, 2010, 08:59:20 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Tomorrow or Monday should show if this is a bad sample or movement toward obama.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5596 on: August 07, 2010, 12:07:32 PM »

Gallup: 46-47 (+1, -2)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5597 on: August 08, 2010, 08:02:56 AM »

Rasmussen (08/08/2010)Sad

48% Approve (nc)
51% Disapprove (nc)

31% Strongly Approve (+1)
41% Strongly Disapprove (nc)
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change08
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« Reply #5598 on: August 08, 2010, 08:22:15 AM »

Rasmussen (08/08/2010)Sad

48% Approve (nc)
51% Disapprove (nc)

31% Strongly Approve (+1)
41% Strongly Disapprove (nc)

So, movement towards Obama?
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J. J.
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« Reply #5599 on: August 08, 2010, 08:54:29 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Three good days for Obama, and Thursday's number was at the upper edge of the normal range.  We should know tomorrow if this is a bad sample or if this is movement towards Obama.
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