The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

That was on the cards. No justification for it, however, given the fact that the president is governing exactly from where any rationalist knew he would, the pragmatic center-left. Cannot be any worse than the last eight years of governance with all the finesse of an idiologically-driven cackhanded incompetent and a 'Great Recession', which, fairly and squarely, vindicates that

Only time will tell but he's going to be held to a higher standard than his predecessor (and I take comfort in that because it's how it should be for any president regardless of party and ideology), who abused the center-right nature of America to the point, he got a pass in 2004. If a Democrat had been that fiscally inept, they'd have been out on their arse

Yes, the economy and the deficit is all Obama's fault

[Democratic Hawk]

Virginia:

44% Approve (-15)
49% Disapprove (+13)

Who the hell did they call to get an (unrealistic) swing like that?

Or just maybe their VA poll before this one was unrealistic. Anywho, this seems close to right.

Not in a state which Obama carried by 6.3% it doesn't

Yes right now Obama's approval rating is 50-53 national, so VA would be somewhere in the 48-50 range. Like I said it is close to right, not right on the money.

I don't consider that particularly close to right. Anyway, I need to see the demographic base percentages to determine whether its plausible or not. Could be too few, or too many, of this, that and the other. I'm not buying any significant drop-off from moderates, given that the president is governing from the pragmatic center-left and isn't by any stretch of the imagination a radical, not from where I stand on the issues, at least, and I consider myself a Christian Democrat

[Democratic Hawk]

Virginia:

44% Approve (-15)
49% Disapprove (+13)

Who the hell did they call to get an (unrealistic) swing like that?

Or just maybe their VA poll before this one was unrealistic. Anywho, this seems close to right.

Not in a state which Obama carried by 6.3% it doesn't

Yes right now Obama's approval rating is 50-53 national, so VA would be somewhere in the 48-50 range. Like I said it is close to right, not right on the money.

I don't consider that particularly close to right. Anyway, I need to see the demographic base percentages to determine whether its plausible or not. Could be too few, or too many, of this, that and the other. I'm not buying any significant drop-off from moderates, given that the president is governing from the pragmatic center-left and isn't by any stretch of the imagination a radical, not from where I stand on the issues, at least, and I consider myself a Christian Democrat

Most polling firms show him with negative nation approvals with independents. It's usually around 40-60 with the 60 disapproving. Independents are ~27% of voters in Virginia. So if you have the Republican base, which is ~33%, and the Democratic base, which is ~39%, and the independents lean disapprove, then you get around the area that this poll was.

Independents only narrowly favored Obama in Virginia (48-47). Nationally, independents will ebb towards him and flow away from him depending on his performance, and the extent to which his policies are perceived, positively or negatively, and as we all know there is one bad ass bitch of a recession right now

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Little of which, to date, can be directly attributed to this president

[Democratic Hawk]

One way to explain the Virginia numbers is the drastically different composition between the June and July polls as well as the downward spiral in Obama's approval in these groups:

June:

42% Democrats (93-6 approve)
29% Republicans (27-68 disapprove)
22% Independents (44-49 disapprove)

July:

33% Democrats (83-16 approve)
32% Republicans (19-76 disapprove)
27% Independents (34-51 disapprove)

Using July's percentages with June's party I/D, for example, Democrats 42%, 83-16 approve, I get 47.85% approve; 39.98% disapprove (48-40 approve)

Using July's percentages with the 2008 exit polls, for example, Democrats 39%, 83-16 approve, I get 47.82% approve; 45.09% disapprove (48-45 approve)

Perhaps a case of June having too many Democrats and July, too few?

[Democratic Hawk]

You are talking about 15-16 year olds? They are very democratic.

Somewhat true, but a lot of teens are only democrat because Obama was running. Most teens don't know what the difference between a Republican and  a Democrat. I think the GOP needs to show teens the principles of the party

Here's how most teens figure politics:
George Bush = Bad = Republican
Obama = God = Democrat

Less of the God please. As a Christian, I take issue with any reference to the president as "God" or the "Messiah".  Good, in this context, is more appropriate

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Younger people are, actually, more rational than you give them credit for - and if their formative years have been characterized by what they perceive as being nothing short of abject incompetence and neglect culminating in failure, on the part of a conservative Republican, you can't expect them to skew either conservative or Republican. And there is no lack of maturity about it

I'm not suggesting, of course, that they will be skew either liberal or Democratic infinitum. That, of course, in no small part, is going to depend on the extent to which Democrats are successful or otherwise

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama effective? HA!

Mocking are we, Rowan? Here's my take on things.

Domestically, this president is going to have to make the kind of tough decisions on taxes and spending than his predecessor, sloth that he was didn't make much headway on. And if Obama does that, he'll be showing leadership. Any tom, dick or harry can cut taxes willy-nilly, politically, it's the easiest thing in the world to do; but raising them takes guts. The House this week passed "pay-go", which if passed by the Senate and signed into law, commits Democrats, moving forward, to fiscal responsibility . It's not inconceivable that a point will come when the 30 year old tax allergy is going to have be confronted head-on - and by woudn't that take testicular fortitude! Obama wasn't bequeathed a robust economy that had generated 23 million jobs and federal government living well within its means, far from it

Seemingly, even a pragmatic center-leftist like Obama is pushing his nation's ideological comfort zone - and that in itself is leadership. The ideological nature of America, in so far as conservatives outnumber liberals three to two, makes governing inherently more challenging for him and positive accomplishments all that more important. Not to mention the forces of restraint from within, in the form of the Blue Dogs. No such checks on Bush from the GOP given that he got just every whim and folly handed him as though Congress were some compliant wife

On the international stage, meanwhile, Obama the Apologist Restorationist, rather, is, thus far, proving dam effective at raising his nation's image; but it's going to take longer to restore the trust between the Free World and her leader (good ol' Uncle Sam)

[Democratic Hawk]

Comparing Obama in 2012 to Reagan in 1984?

Even were this president to be as "brilliant" as Reagan, there will be no rerun of 1984 - given the recalcitrant spirit of conservatism (no matter bad how we screw up, there is no alternative to us) - but if the economy has rebounded nicely, there are no unpopular foreign wars and no major scandals directly implicating the president, he wins re-election

Of course, capitalism, then and now, is more universal and, as a consequence, there are more significant global players competing with America et al.

[Democratic Hawk]

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 29% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11. That’s the first time his ratings have reached double digits in negative territory" -- Rasmussen Reports, Sunday, July 26, 2009

All that tells me is this president is being held to a very high standard. Even post-Katrina, I can only recall Bush's strongly disapprove rating hovering around 46% and pretty much staying there

While the economy remains as it is, the trajectory for this president seems likely to echo Reagan's. He, of course, was saved by robust growth, and falling unemployment, in the later period of his first term after what was a pretty nasty recession. Unfortunately, for this president, capitalism is more universal nowadays and, consequently, there are more significant players out there

Bottom-line, if people are expecting miracles seventh months into the Obama presidency, then that is wishful thinking and the challenge is for the president to prove his doubters wrong. Healthcare, for a start, would be an easier sell were the economy not as it is. And like all those faced with challenging times before him, he is going to have to be bold. FDR, of course, never had such the wide range of special interests lined up against him, while both he and LBJ had been given thumping mandates bty the electorate

It ain't easy being a Democrat considering the ideological nature of America, especially given the recalcitrant nature of the Right, for whom Bush's only folly was to spend too much

[Democratic Hawk]

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 29% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11. That’s the first time his ratings have reached double digits in negative territory" -- Rasmussen Reports, Sunday, July 26, 2009

All that tells me is this president is being held to a very high standard. Even post-Katrina, I can only recall Bush's strongly disapprove rating hovering around 46% and pretty much staying there

While the economy remains as it is, the trajectory for this president seems likely to echo Reagan's. He, of course, was saved by robust growth, and falling unemployment, in the later period of his first term after what was a pretty nasty recession. Unfortunately, for this president, capitalism is more universal nowadays and, consequently, there are more significant players out there

Bottom-line, if people are expecting miracles seventh months into the Obama presidency, then that is wishful thinking and the challenge is for the president to prove his doubters wrong. Healthcare, for a start, would be an easier sell were the economy not as it is. And like all those faced with challenging times before him, he is going to have to be bold. FDR, of course, never had such the wide range of special interests lined up against him, while both he and LBJ had been given thumping mandate

It ain't easy being a Democrat considering the ideological nature of America, especially given the recalcitrant nature of the Right, for whom Bush's only folly was to spend too much

You can't even compare Obama to Reagan or FDR or even LBJ.  And if anything, it's the left that's recalcitrant.  Or at least they were when Bush was president.  The right is only giving them a taste of their own medicine.

Can you read or not? I'm not comparing Obama to Reagan, FDR or LBJ. As for Bush, my criticism only ever centred on the man's ineptitude

This president hasn't been bequeathed a robust economy that had generated 23 million jobs or a federal government living well within its means, which means that about the only certainty is that Obama has a steep climb ahead of him, which, sooner or later, will require bold, and not necessarily popular, action - and that, in my book, is leadership. The action taken in respect of General Motors, for example, has hardly proven to be the most popular decision the president has made, now has it?

[Democratic Hawk]

Gallup 7/26/09

Approve 56% (+1)

Disapprove 37% (-2)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx

[Democratic Hawk]

Droppin' steadily...

Droppin' steadily, then rising, then droppin' steadily again - it would seem

[Democratic Hawk]

Droppin' steadily...

Droppin' steadily, then rising, then droppin' steadily again - it would seem

His approvals use to be much higher. What are you smoking?

That they did - and they'll ebb and flow, no doubt, upwards or downwards, for the duration of his presidency depend on events and how he responds to them, as well as the, overall, state of the economy. The honeymoon is over. Question is can he and congressional Democrats hold their nerve? Tough choices lie ahead - and they aren't, by any means, always going to be popular

[Democratic Hawk]

New Jersey (PPP)

53% Approve
39% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 552 New Jersey voters from July 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_729.pdf

That, believe it or not, is 1-point net approval gain on PPP's last NJ poll (July 1, 2009)

[Democratic Hawk]

Battleground Poll (The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners)

53% Approve (40% Strongly, DEM: 90-6, REP: 18-78, IND: 42-50)
42% Disapprove (37% Strongly)

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

72% Approve
20% Disapprove

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 61% Favorable, 36% Unfavorable
Biden: 49% Favorable, 38% Unfavorable
Palin: 42% Favorable, 47% Unfavorable

Composition of sample: 42% DEM, 37% REP, 19% IND, 1% OTHER, 1% REFUSED

1000 Registered "Likely" Voters, July 19-23, 2009

The George Washington University Battleground Poll is a collaborative bi-partisan survey produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.

http://www.tarrance.com/BG-37-questionnaire.pdf

http://www.tarrance.com/Battleground37GOPAnalysisCharts.pdf

This poll is encouraging re-healthcare and energy. The pollsters offered respondents a choice between the Democrat and the Republican "message" on healthcare and energy, as to which they most agreed with, and Democrats win the debate on healthcare (51-42) and energy (52-40)

Interestingly, while the Democratic Party edges out the Republican Party in terms of who is doing a good job (4.4-3.9), Republicans lead 42-43 on the generic ballot

[Democratic Hawk]

Battleground Poll (The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners)

53% Approve (40% Strongly, DEM: 90-6, REP: 18-78, IND: 42-50)
42% Disapprove (37% Strongly)

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

72% Approve
20% Disapprove

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 61% Favorable, 36% Unfavorable
Biden: 49% Favorable, 38% Unfavorable
Palin: 42% Favorable, 47% Unfavorable

Composition of sample: 42% DEM, 37% REP, 19% IND, 1% OTHER, 1% REFUSED

1000 Registered "Likely" Voters, July 19-23, 2009

The George Washington University Battleground Poll is a collaborative bi-partisan survey produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.

http://www.tarrance.com/BG-37-questionnaire.pdf

http://www.tarrance.com/Battleground37GOPAnalysisCharts.pdf

Wow, that is surprisingly... positive.

I'm pretty impressed with the high personal favorability of the president because likeability, at that level, were it to hold through his presidency, will be a huge electoral asset, especially if his Republican opponent were to have a deficit on that score

[Democratic Hawk]

There's something simplistic asking job approval.  It'd be more illuminative to ask if one's opinion of the job Obama is doing has changed, let them specify why if so and categorize the answers.  I suppose one poll shows Obama's job approval among white, working class dropped in response to Obama's comments on the Gates arrest thing.  If true, that frankly seems retarded to me.

The president would have been wise to have passed over the Gates issue when it was raised at his press conference. The Right, no doubt, will be doing its damdest to fan its flames given that they have everything to gain, politically, by doing so given the extent to which their shabby record in government is threatened by this most enlightened pragmatically moderate (center-left) of presidents. Not to mention all the scaremongering coming forth on healthcare and energy. Surprising as it may seem, it's not in this president's, or his party's, political interest to make things worse for himself/themselves, his/their country or its people. The ideological nature of America obviously affords Republicans more of a pass

The House in passing pay-go, recently, has, at least, committed itself moving forward to fiscal responsibility which is more than can be said for the other lot, who should never be forgiven their whims and follies which, radically, altered the trajectory of the fiscal health, that of budget surplus, of the nation -  for the worst. That would have come in useful to combat this bad ass mother of an economic downturn. It's clearly now a matter for the Senate to pass.  At the end of the day, it all needs to paid for. The only Republican, of late, who understood that was Bush 41 - and he was effectively crucified by many on the Right. I've no beef with pragmatic conservatives, but those beholden to dogma really need incarcerating in their Ivory Towers, where they can do no harm. And they can take them "Tea-Baggers" with them

If this president succeeds it will be a triumph of rationalism

[Democratic Hawk]

Pew Research

Approve 54%
Disapprove 34%

http://people-press.org/report/532/obamas-ratings-slide

Holy cow, 38% approval on the economy? Even I'm shocked....

Probably due to the deficit spending and the over optimism when he sold the stimulus package.

One minute the president was being damned for being pessimistic, the next he's dammed for being optimistic. When it comes to deficits, the Republicans cannot take the high ground. Certainly not when you consider that Bush was bequeathed a robust economy that had created 23 million jobs along with a trajectory that projected a growing surplus only to bequeath the 'Great Recession' and an economy losing jobs at a rate not since that of 1981/82

Any rationalist understands that deficit reduction isn't a short-term option. It is something that will, of course, inevitability have to be confronted

Capitalism needs to be as much premised on security as it is liberty. The role of government is to, effectively, enhance positive, but restrain negative, freedom

I dread to think of the consequences of the major financial institutions being allowed to collapse even if bailing-out errant behaviour does look like rewarding said behaviour. But doing nothing isn't an option. Not when there are millions of livelihoods and families; indeed, communities, at risk. And when I hear the likes of Palin championing the freedom to fail, it doesn't inspire confidence in Republicans if they are of that mindset

[Democratic Hawk]

I would again like to point out that Americans have historically always answered that they're concerned about the deficit, even when other answers contradict that one. As I said before, even under FDR, the public said they wanted to balance the budget, despite the fact that they largely supported FDR's big spending New Deal programs.

Yeah let's spend more to get out of debt....  that makes perfect sense.

If we tried to cut spending right now it would crash the economy again.  The only reason why we are not in another Great Depression IS government spending. 

Exactly

[Democratic Hawk]

PPP: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_805513.pdf

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you're not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not Sure.......................................................... 7%

That poll tells me more about the appalling mindset of many Virginia Republicans and conservatives given the findings on that whole "Birther" nonsense

The center is holding nicely in favor of the president. Moderates approve by 61-31

Compare and contrast the party and ideological base of this poll with the 2008 exit polls:

Party identification PPP [2008 exits]

Democrat 32 [39]; Republican 35 [33]; Independent 33 [27]

In this poll, Democrats approve 92/4; Republicans 3/92; Independents 34/54. Applying the 2008 exit poll base:

Approval rating: Dem 35.88 + Rep 0.99 + Ind 9.18 = 46.05%

Disapproval rating: Dem 1.56 + Rep 30.36 + Ind 14.58 = 46.50%

Ideology PPP [2008 exits]

Liberal 14 [19]; Moderate 41 [46]; Conservative 45 [33]

In this poll, Liberals approve 87/7; Moderates 61/31; Conservatives 10/84. Applying the 2008 exit poll base:

Approval rating: Liberal 16.53 + Moderate 28.06 + Conservative 3.80 = 48.39%

Disapproval rating: Liberal 1.33 + Moderate 13.02 + Conservative 31.92 = 46.27%

[Democratic Hawk]

PPP: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_805513.pdf

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you're not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not Sure.......................................................... 7%

That poll tells me more about the appalling mindset of many Virginia Republicans and conservatives given the findings on that whole "Birther" nonsense

The center is holding nicely in favor of the president. Moderates approve by 61-31

Compare and contrast the party and ideological base of this poll with the 2008 exit polls:

Party identification PPP [2008 exits]

Democrat 32 [39]; Republican 35 [33]; Independent 33 [27]

In this poll, Democrats approve 92/4; Republicans 3/92; Independents 34/54. Applying the 2008 exit poll base:

Approval rating: Dem 35.88 + Rep 0.99 + Ind 9.18 = 46.05%

Disapproval rating: Dem 1.56 + Rep 30.36 + Ind 14.58 = 46.50%

Ideology PPP [2008 exits]

Liberal 14 [19]; Moderate 41 [46]; Conservative 45 [33]

In this poll, Liberals approve 87/7; Moderates 61/31; Conservatives 10/84. Applying the 2008 exit poll base:

Approval rating: Liberal 16.53 + Moderate 28.06 + Conservative 3.80 = 48.39%

Disapproval rating: Liberal 1.33 + Moderate 13.02 + Conservative 31.92 = 46.27%

I know Republicans disapprove, but 3% approval still seems way to low.

That's among those likely to vote in this year's gubernatorial election. In 2008, according to the exit poll, 8% of Virginia Republicans cast ballots for Obama

According to Gallup's most recent weekly data, 20% of Republicans, nationally, approve of Obama (33% among liberal/moderate Republicans but only 12% among conservative Republicans)

So, yes, I'm minded to agree that 3% is too low

[Democratic Hawk]

What a disturbing piece of work the Right wingers have made, I'm sure that's going to get them In the White House!

The right wingers clearly know jack sh**t about socialism; indeed, Michael Lind, a progressive populist in the 'New Deal' tradition, argues that Obama is prisoner to the cult of neoliberalism

[Democratic Hawk]

His numbers are currently right where they were when he was elected, right? I would think this is all to be expected. He is pushing the agenda he promised, so this is just all those Republicans that were drawn to Obama's personality, rather than his policy, returning where they really stand.

Approval seems to declined among moderate Republicans pretty heavily but, for now, the center holds

[Democratic Hawk]

Support for congressional health care reform is pretty bad:

42% Support
53% Oppose

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/august_2009/support_for_congressional_health_care_reform_falls_to_new_low

That doesn't surprise me for two reasons:

1) Democrats seem either unable - or worse still, unable - get their act together and reach a 'consensus', in private, about how best to move forward. It only sends a message of disarray

2) I've never been one to underestimate the effectiveness of the fear and smear machine operated by the Rabid Reactionary Right against Democrats

[Democratic Hawk]

I trust the embracement of enlightened Democratic pragmatism taken by VA, NC, FL and NV, in 2008, wasn't a temporary blip. Still, they are holding Obama to a higher standard, at this point, than they ever did Bush, which can only bode well for good government

Bush abused the ideological nature of America, Obama cannot do that

[Democratic Hawk]

I trust the embracement of enlightened Democratic pragmatism taken by VA, NC, FL and NV, in 2008, wasn't a temporary blip. Still, they are holding Obama to a higher standard, at this point, than they ever did Bush, which can only bode well for good government

Bush abused the ideological nature of America, Obama cannot do that

Enlightened Democratic pragmatism. I think NC has had enough of that BS after the Mike Easley Administration, Meg Scott Phipps, State House Speaker Jim Black, and State Rep. Tom Wright.

Maybe I'm just down on all that governance with all the finesse of an idiologically-driven cackhanded incompetent on the part of George W Bush, aided and abetted by a most servile - and yes, you can take in the most derogatory sense of the word - Republican Party in Congress

Bush might be gone but the party is still singing from the same hymn book in their slavish dogmatic adherence to 1) a fiscal policy skewed in favor of the wealthiest and 2) deregulation

Ever occurred to you that had they been not so downright incompetent and neglectful, there wouldn't have been much of a red flag for me to charge at? Competence is my litmus. Bush abused the ideological nature of America (center-right in so far as conservatives outnumber liberals) and that enabled him to get a pass for as long as he did - and with near catastrophic consequences

Believe it or not, it was not until August 2004 when I emerged from the shadows to become a critic. And all that should tell you is that I was more than willing to give the man some grace, especially in the wake of 9/11. Doesn't this president deserve the same given the challenges he is having to face?

As long as the Rabid Reactionary Right continues to perpetuate falsehoods against him and his policies, I've no intention of sitting silent