The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Dgov]

Gallup: 43-50

[Dgov]

     Given that Support-Oppose is still underwater, it's a bit early for Democrats to be celebrating.

And given that this number has dropped wildly before and then immediately sprung back up, i wouldn't start partying yet.  Between Late May and Late June, support for repeal fell gradually each week from 63% to 52%, then in July shot back up to 62%

[Dgov]

Gallup 47/46

First time he's been positive in their rankings in a long time.

[Dgov]

This is not to say that minorish shifts haven't occurred since 2008. They probably have. That's just a "return to normalcy" thing.

Um, the "Return to Normalcy" campaign had the GOP winning almost 70% Majorities in the House, and picking up every single Senate seat outside of the Solid South.  It's actually a relatively good comparison

[Dgov]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, +1.

This the lowest Approve number in the last five weeks.

It is probably a strong anti-Obama sample moving through the system.  If so, it should drop out tomorrow.

That's 5 days straight of decreasing number for Obama, so if it does represent bad samples, odds are it won't drop off much tomorrow, but will drop off more Sunday or Monday.

[Dgov]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

It didn't bounce up.  This could be a move away from Obama.

I'd wait until Monday at the latest to make that assumption.  No change means that the sample entering the system is approximately equal to the one leaving, and the sample that just left was more pro-Obama than this total.

In other words, this suggests that today's poll was better for Obama's than yesterday's, it's just that the 3-day average helps kind of mask that.

Also, this would represent Obama moving back down to his August numbers rather than falling to new lows.  In other words, his September/October "Recovery" has faded out.

[Dgov]

The last 4 polls (rasmussen, gallup, fox and ipsos) give the same result: 43 %. (but with different populations: adult, RV or likely voters...)

For some weeks, Rasmussen is the reputable pollster who has given the best result for Obama.

I don't understand how it's possible that gallup gives 43 % with adults and Rasmussen 47 % with likely voters. Adults are more pro-obama that likely voters... can you explain that ? because it's more than "a bad sample".

Part of it is probably different  "Likely" voter criteria.  Part of it might also be the different numbers for "Undecideds"--Getting 43% in a Rasmussen Poll is very different than getting 43% in a Gallup poll or 44% in the CBS poll, given that Rasmussen has far less undecideds (56% Disapproval in Ras poll vs 48% in Gallup poll and 45% for CBS).  Part of it might be that Rasmussen asks for "Stongly approve and Somewhat approve" rather than just approve or disapprove, which might mike some people who were considering "undecided" say somewhat approve instead.

[Dgov]

Swing back?

Well, Obama's 4-point Gain a few days ago just screams "Really bad Obama sample replaced with really good one" so expect that one to come out and have his numbers fall back down a bit in a few days.

[Dgov]

Obama's down to 44.7% Approval this quarter according to Gallup (Poll of adults)

He's also seeing a negative favorable rating for the first time (47-50), and by 39-54 Americans say he does not deserve re-election.

I'd love  to see these number put through the Gallup likely voter screen, but either way, this is bad news for Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143921/Obama-Approval-Rating-New-Low-Recent-Quarter.aspx

[Dgov]

Gallup is crazy today:

42% Approve (-4)
50% Disapprove (+4)

Must be one of the biggest Gallup one-day swings....ever.

Yeah, that's only 1 point off his all-time lows, which is weird if you consider he was positive a few days ago.

This trend will probably continue up until election day at least (wildly varying numbers), and will probably level off once the politics cools down in the month of December.

[Dgov]

Maryland
http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Latest%20Poll.pdf

52/43 approval/disapproval

Assuming this trend holds up Nationally, his approval rating should be about 43%

[Dgov]

California

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama1010.pdf

53/42 approval/disapproval among registered voters.

And among likely voters it's 49-47. Ouch.

Edit: Although it's hard to see how you can only have 55% approval if 81% of liberals, 64% of moderates and 30% of conservatives approve of the job you are doing.

That breakdown is about 20/40/40 Liberal Moderate Conservative (which gives 54% Approval), which is about the Country's overall numbers.  Though this is California, so that does seem very odd.

[Dgov]

Gallup: 41-50

Tied for his record low on approval, but also a points less unfavorable.  It sums up the last year nicely to know that his 52-week high and 52-week low are a year and 14 points apart.

[Dgov]

Battleground poll:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101022_bg42questionnaire.html

Obama favorable/unfavorable: 46/51

Republican Party Favorables/Unfavorables: 50/41
Democratic Party Favorables/Unfavorables: 42/50
HC law: 44/53

And on a moderate-less Conservative/Liberal ranking, 62/35 Conservative over Liberal

32/34 Republican/Democrat identification, 42/41 with Leaners.

[Dgov]

FYI: obama's favorables in battleground fell by 14 points in one month.

54/45 to 46/51 favorable/unfavorable

That's kind of a big drop.  Was their first poll registered voters?

[Dgov]

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.

Judging by NJ and VA, yes it was a bad year. Democrats did well in the house special elections though and they defied expectations (but still lost) in NYC.

Well, NYC was a competition between a Liberal and a kind-of Liberal, so I don't know if that counts.  November was also when the GOP won in Nassau and Westchester, so it's not like the GOP lagged much in New York.

Anyway, Democratic turnout will probably be better than last year, but that's probably offset by Obama's roughly 7-point drop in the polls from then.

[Dgov]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, u.

Strongly Disapprove is the lowest since the second week of September, during the low week.

It could be a bad sample, but Obama's numbers have declined from two weeks ago.  If it is a bad sample, we should know by Halloween (trick or treat, everyone).

The GOP smear campaign ends on November 2, when the Orwellian ads give way to ads touting Christmas shopping. Then things can be more normal.

What are you talking about?  The EVIL GOP Smear campaign shall never stop!  MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH (*cue lighting strikes)

(It's Halloween d@mmit)

[Dgov]

I'll be honest...Nevada and Colorado seem to be trending left.

I'm not certain Reid doesn't also beat Lowden and Tark or Bennett doesn't also beat Norton.

It looks like the West in general is moving to the left while the Midwest is moving heavily to the right.

The Northeast and South are what they are but there are some bright spots in both areas for the GOP and Dems (south carolina in the south and new hampshire in the north).

Seems like this state is trending left, and for the worst IMO. It'll be a messed up state in a few decades just watch, similar like CA and the leftcoast, runned to hell. It won't matter cause I'll find another place to move.

What I'd say the midwest and the rustbelts are trending right.

Right-wing, anti-tax policies are to blame for California's predicament.

Good thing they voted out all those evil Conservative Republicans who've controlled the state government for the last 40-odd years.

[Dgov]

I bet we'll see a drop this week from deflated support on the left.

EDIT: Even before the tax cuts deal, arguably the most unpopular with thing he has done as far as the base is concerned, I think about 20% of those disapproving said they felt so because he wasn't liberal enough.  That number will shoot up this week.  He may fall below 40% approval in the wake of this.

I don't think so.  This plan is, so far anyway, relatively popular, and Obama getting some visible distance between him and Liberal Democrats will probably help his image.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145109/Americans-Support-Major-Elements-Tax-Compromise.aspx

[Dgov]

Well, here's PPP's last poll of Texas to give you a reference (taken Early November, right after elections)

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/some-good-signs-for-palin.html

For those to lazy to look it up, they had Obama down 35-59 against a Generic Republican (and even losing Texas Hispanics by 2 points to a GR).

[Dgov]

I honestly can't think of anything in particular about Obama's handling of the Egypt situation that would cause a drop in approval, one reason why I'm sceptical of these signifying something other than a blip.

It might a temporary boost fading.  He didn't really do anything significant that would have raised his numbers in the first place (despite giving a mediocre SOTU speech), so it be that he just got a moderate, temporary bump in approval after the New Year elections and it's sliding back into more "normal" territory for him.

But i agree with you that we need to wait before this can be called official movement.

[Dgov]

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

No.  His numbers are basically right back where they were on January 1st, and his current numbers are statistically identical to those ones in basically all the categories.  The only sub-group that has shown potentially significant movement is race, where his approval is up 7 points with Hispanics and down 8 with Blacks.

Probably Egypt.

Why does everyone think this?  What's far more likely is that Obama just got a temporary start-of-the-year boost that has now faded back to normalcy.  Egypt's been over the news for the past week or so, sure, but it's nothing that directly affects the US (though it has plenty of secondary effects).  Voters don't think "Oh, there's something troubling happening in the world.   I don't like the president now".  Foreign events have to actually involve the US or be very much related to the US to actually affect US politics--something like Iran taking US hostages or the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan.  And even then, unless it reflects really badly on the US president, it's unlikely to actually move his approval ratings.

If voters really thought that the US president was responsible for making sure nothing bad happened in the world, ever, we wouldn't have elected Obama (who ran on a very non-interventionist platform) in the first place.

[Dgov]

Gallup's timing seems too perfect sometimes:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146021/Obama-Approval-Rating-Deficit-Sinks-New-Low.aspx

Apparently Obama's handling of Egypt is apparently the only major issue where he has a better-than-statistically-tied approval rating (47-32 approve), is slightly above even in foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and energy policy (48-45, 47-46, and 43-42, respectively), and negative on taxes, health care, the economy and the deficit.

In fact, it looks like the Deficit is the issue hurting him the most right now, as not only does it give him the worst spread by far (27-68), but it's also the only one that Independents are really sour on him for (approval rating of 19%, while in the high 30s and low 40s for all the others).

Then again, i don't think the Republican's numbers are going to be much better on the deficit.

[Dgov]

PPP/DailyKos:

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/2/11

Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

[Dgov]

Gallup Polled Obama versus "the Republican candidate" and had them tied 46-46, with Obama having basically the same voting base as he did in 2008.  The significant differences they found in their poll were that:

1) Obama did markedly worse with younger voters, winning them only 51-44 compared to 63-33 in their last pre-2008 election poll.

2) Obama won less of the Non-White Vote than in 2008 (they didn't post the non-white 2008 numbers, but in their last pre-2008 poll Obama won Blacks 92%-3% and Hispanics 74%-20%, with the latter term having a lot of variability week-to-week.  Both of these are much higher than the 63% of "non-whites" he's winning in this poll).

It's worth noting though that their last pre-2008 poll had Obama winning 52%-41% overall, so those number might have been slight overestimates of Obama's support at the time, and that both of the above totals represent lower support for him than the 2010 CNN Exit Poll Numbers for the National house races.

Here's the latest Gallup Poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146138/Nameless-Republican-Ties-Obama-2012-Election-Preferences.aspx

Here's the 2008 one:

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Key%2bIndicators.aspx