The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[DariusNJ]

PPP gives some hints about their upcoming Arizona poll:

The big question on our Arizona poll tomorrow is whether Barack Obama is set up to win the state in 2012, and the answer as of today is no. He is winning 9-10% of the 2008 McCain vote against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin but that's not quite enough.

-Two positive points for Obama from the poll though: only 3% of his 2008 voters disapprove of the job he's doing and independents are split 45-45 on his health care plan. That's the first poll we've done where indies weren't opposed. And he certainly doesn't seem to have a base problem in Arizona.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[DariusNJ]

What is it with TX-28? It's a district that stretches from about halfway between Austin and San Antonio to the Mexican border, just skirting Laredo  and holding a small part of San Antonio and some of its eastern and southern suburbs. It is 65% Hispanic; its Cook PVI is even, which means that it on the average can vote as America does. Its Representative, Henry Cuellar, is a so-called Blue Dog Democrat.

This poll is about healthcare, and it is apparently with Obama -- not against him.   

It has been shown that areas that are poorer than average tend to, quite obviously have more people uninsured. And uninsured people are much more likely to back the health care plan.

A lot of blue dog, socially conservative areas (eg Arkansas) would probably support the health care plan even though they do not like Obama.

[DariusNJ]

Obama's approval seems to stay stable at his Election Day levels (53%). During the town hall meetings and all the outrage over healthcare, his approval dropped to 50%, but he quickly rebounded.

[DariusNJ]

I don't see how Obama could get a large bump from winning the Peace Prize. If anything, I expect that winning the prize and donating the money to charity would help his favorability ratings, not approval.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Gallup interviews all adults right? I guess its possible that among all adults, Obama's peace prize may have an effect, because some people don't follow politics closely, and they may approve of Obama now that he won the peace prize because they assume it means he's doing a good job.

I doubt the prize made much of an impact among likely voters.

[DariusNJ]

I haven't seen these posted on the last 2 pages, sorry if these already have been.

Tennessee Obama Approval (MTSU): 46% approve, 48% disapprove

Florida Nobel Prize: (Insider Advantage)
33% think he deserves it
47% think he does not

New Jersey Approval and Nobel Prize: (PPP)
46% approve, 45% disapprove
30% think he deserves the prize, 56% think he does not

Maine Approval (Pan Atlantic): 58% approve, 38% disapprove

Pennsylvania Approval (Susquehanna): 50% approve, 37% disapprove

www.pollster.com


There's good news for both Democrats and Republicans. His approval in Tennessee is surprisingly high, while in New Jersey it's surprisingly low.

[DariusNJ]

Democracy Corps Obama FAVORABLES in New Jersey : 54\31

Clarus Virginia Obama Approval: 47 % approve, 43% disapprove

[DariusNJ]

Ohio was more Republican than the national average in 2008, so it may be safe to say that it leans more culturally towards the Republican Party today than it does the Democratic Party.

Right, but in 2004, the state was on par with the election results from the nation. In fact, it might have been SLIGHTLY more Democratic IIRC.

It really depends on the candidate. If a Clinton type Democrat is running, it will probably lean Democrat by 1-2%. If there's a stong Republican running, then it will lean slightly Republican.

[DariusNJ]

Obama is still looking strong in the very blue states, it's the swing states in which it looks like his approval is below his Election Day totals.

[DariusNJ]

I wonder what kind of bounce he'll get if/when HC passes.

He'd probably get a small bump just because it would be historic, but about 45-50% of Americans right now oppose the bill, so I imagine the bump would last only 2-3 days.

[DariusNJ]

How the hell does Michelle Bachman have 51% approval in Minnesota. The state has more Democrats than Republicans, so that means if Bachmann is over 50%, there are some Democrats and a sizable number of independents who approve of her. Can someone from Minnesota explain this to me?

[DariusNJ]

Big movement in the Rasmussen and Gallup daily numbers:

Rasmussen: 50% Approve, 49% Disapprove (+3, -2)

Gallup: 54% Approve, 38% Disapprove (+2, -3)

What's the bounce for?

Fort Hood speech?

[DariusNJ]

Should Obama get 35% of the white vote in Mississippi in 2012 he wins the state. That is about what Obama got in the white electorate in neighboring Arkansas in 2008, so such is far from impossible. I don't say that he can, but in the absence of polls from Mississippi I can say nothing except some vapid generality.  He could conceivably get 35% of the white vote if he is seen as very different from the black machine politicians that white Mississippians know too well (white machine politicians are no better) and safely distant from Mississippi. Obama is of course President of the United States and not some county commissioner.

Come on, how do you expect people to take you seriously? 35% of the white vote in MS?! Obama could have 90% approvals the day before the election, he still would not get near 35% of white voters in MS.

[DariusNJ]

Posted on Pollster.com, Obama Approval in Wisconsin 60/37 (done by UW)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wi_obama_doyle_uwisc_10291120.php

According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

[DariusNJ]

Hey pbrower, I think that Zogby Florida poll should qualify as "suspect". If his approval is positive in Florida, it will be slightly positive, not by a 55\42 margin.

[DariusNJ]

Thanks for stepping up to the plate, maybe we can finally have an objective map!

[DariusNJ]

Sorry pbrower, you've been replaced.

[DariusNJ]

How is this guys?

30-39%- Dark Dark Red
40-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% but Approval is higher than Disapproval- Pink
50-54%- Light Green
55-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Let me know if you guys have any suggestions.

Pretty good.

[DariusNJ]

Looks like there is a slight bump, but still a lot of skeptical folks.

Rasmussen has him at 49\51. They say most of the bump in approval comes from Democrats. "Approval among Democrats grew from 81% before Wednesday’s speech to 90% over the past two nights."

"On the morning of the speech, 50% of Democrats Strongly Approved of the President’s performance. On the two nights following the speech, that number jumped to 65%. There was essentially no change among Republican and unaffiliated voters. "

Rasmussen polling on specific issues on the speech:

"However, just 21% of voters nationwide believe that taxes have been cut for 95% of Americans. Most (53%) say it has not happened, and 26% are not sure."

"The president also asserted that “after two years of recession, the economy is growing again.” Just 35% of voters believe that statement is true, while 50% say it is false."

"Obama claimed that steps taken by his team are responsible for putting two million people to work “who would otherwise be unemployed.” Just 27% of voters say that statement is true. Fifty-one percent (51%) say it's false. "

Now, Gallup has Obama at 48\45, up from 47\47 prior to the speech.



 

[DariusNJ]

The SOTU probably rallied the base, but it doesn't look like it moved the others.

Agreed.

[DariusNJ]

Arkansas (Rasmussen)

33% Approve
66% Disapprove

(Gov. Mike Beebe)

73% Approve
24% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arkansas was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 1, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_arkansas_senate_february_1_2010

.....

Gallup`s continued SOTU bump:

51% Approve (+1)
42% Disapprove (-2)

I predict that by 2012, Arkansas will vote similarly to Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Oklahoma.

[DariusNJ]

Rasmussen Virginia:

48% approve
51% disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/virginia/65_of_virginia_voters_approve_of_mcdonnell_so_far

McDonnell approvals in that same poll are 65\29

[DariusNJ]

We`ll also get new OK Rasmussen numbers in 1 hour ...

Oh boy, not looking forward to this...

[DariusNJ]

Oklahoma

38% Approve
62% Disapprove

An improvement over his actual vote total, for what it's worth...

Interesting, but a bit high I would think. Rasmussen has Obama at 47% nationally and then at 38% in Oklahoma? Only 9 points less?

[DariusNJ]

Gallup also has him in negative territory, first time ever I believe.

[DariusNJ]

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.