The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206643 times)
Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #50 on: October 12, 2009, 10:15:03 PM »

The analysis by Gallup of their poll says the bump will probably be gone by next week.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #51 on: October 14, 2009, 09:10:36 PM »

Gallup

Approve 52%(-4)
Disapprove 39%(+3)

BYE BYE BOUNCE!

It never stood a chance.  Tongue

Well, if it had adequate health insurance it may have survived Tongue
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #52 on: October 27, 2009, 09:59:45 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #53 on: October 27, 2009, 10:26:39 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).

Do you disagree that Ohio has a natural Republican lean?

I think it has a 1%-2% Republican lean, but that is hardly significant statistically.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #54 on: October 27, 2009, 10:29:59 AM »

I would, but I'm too lazy. I have a map memorized in my head of what it should be. I'll go ahead and give my "prediction" though, if the election was today, with no toss-ups.

Generic Republican/Generic Republican vs. Barack Obama/Joe Biden



What makes you think Colorado goes Republican but not traditionally Republican Ohio?

Ohio, "traditionally Republican"? ...'Kay. If anything it's just a bellwether state.

I agree, though I have a hard time seeing Colorado going Republican but not Ohio (unless the GOP nominee is from the mountain west).

Do you disagree that Ohio has a natural Republican lean?

I think it has a 1%-2% Republican lean, but that is hardly significant statistically.

But to answer your point, it is definitely more republican culturally than Colorado, which tends to have a more libertarian state GOP.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #55 on: November 18, 2009, 10:58:04 AM »

Montana (Montana State University)Sad

37% Approve
53% Disapprove

In terms of his overall job performance, a majority (82.5%) of Democrats approved of the
job the president is doing, while majorities of Republicans (87.2%) and independents
(53.4%) replied “disapprove” to this question.

http://www.msubillings.edu/cas/NAMS/2009MSUBPollDay2.pdf

Figures, Democrats are losing popularity fast out west.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2009, 05:59:08 PM »


Why should anybody take CBS, ABC, or CNN polls seriously? They have proven to be inaccurate.

Interestingly, if you go to pollster.com and filter all polls conducted by TV stations, Obama's approval works out to be 49.9% Approve, 45.1% Disapprove.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #57 on: November 20, 2009, 11:48:21 PM »

As I've said elsewhere, while I personally will never support Obama and while my heart flutters a little bit when I see his popularity declining, I don't see any way at all that the Republicans can take back the White House in 2012.  The next presidential election Republicans have a chance at winning is 2016.

People predicted in 2005 that if the GOP nominated McCain he would coast to Clinton '96 style landslide.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #58 on: December 05, 2009, 01:38:49 PM »

Obama's below 50 in the RCP average with only a +4 advantage, and he is only +1 on Pollster.com's average.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #59 on: December 11, 2009, 08:40:46 PM »

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.

Yea, that is what I was trying to say. I have talk to alot of black folks and most of them just approve of Obama because he is black.

In depth discussions with both blacks you know, I'm sure.

Do you think most white people who disapprove of Obama do so because he's black?

You're kidding yourself if you think that any less than at least 1/4 of blacks don't approve of Obama solely because of his race.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #60 on: January 03, 2010, 04:30:46 PM »

Obama now has net negative approval on the pollster.com average.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #61 on: January 09, 2010, 01:46:15 PM »


Huh, looks sort of like 2004, no?
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #62 on: January 10, 2010, 08:40:03 PM »

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."

States mentioned:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

What a way to sensationalise a headline. :S

Of course Obama's Western approvals will drop if you take out Cali, one of the most Dem states in the country which also happens to be the biggest state in the country/region. That's like saying "Oh, let's look at Obama's approvals in the North-East, but let's ignore New York".

California is a given, many of the other states were thought to be trending Democrat. Besides, when you refer to the west, most people won't think of California.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2010, 09:11:38 PM »

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I suspect Minnesota or Oregon. New Mexico has a large Hispanic population, which hasn't trended away from Obama as fast as whites, so it could be, but I doubt it.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #64 on: February 18, 2010, 06:32:59 PM »

Oregon is at Rasmussen's national average?

I imagine, given the small number of undecideds, that when they pressured independents into to picking one, they chose disapprove. Also keep in mind that while parts of the state are very very liberal, there is also a large part of the state that is very conservative.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #65 on: February 27, 2010, 02:53:09 PM »

He's really losing his support in the mountain west. Just a year ago there was talk that the region would become one full of Democratic and swing states. The swings in Montana, Nevada, and New Mexido, (and Colorado to a lesser extent) were profound. While I sort of expected this, it's still a strikingly swift swing against the majority party.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #66 on: March 13, 2010, 05:18:26 PM »

I'd like to see this thing without Rasmussen.  Their polls are always more in favor of Republicans than anyone else's and no one objective thinks it's accidental.

On the other side of the token you have CBS and university polls, so it evens out.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #67 on: March 18, 2010, 02:08:50 PM »

Obama's disapprovals are higher than his approvals for the first time in his Presidency on the RCP.com average.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #68 on: March 23, 2010, 08:31:37 AM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

There's always the tension in democracy of the balance leaders must strike between following the dictates of their constituency vs. striving to lead towards immediately unpopular but necessary reforms.

From what I've seen generally polls that ask Americans if they support (insert generic description of current HCR plan) the majority clearly (albeit not overwhelmingly) support it, especially if it includes language describing a public option. If polls ask whether Americans support "the Obama/ Congress's/ Democratic/currently proposed" plan they tend to split or lean opposed. That indicates when the smoke and heat from the immediate debate subsides this is a plan most Americans will support over the status quo, thus justifying Obama's firm efforts to push this through.

Put another way, half-baked accusations of death panels and the like finding some fertile ground among the gullible and temporarily reducing poll support for HCR is no reason to abandon it.

New taxes without immediate benefits won't go over well, though.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #69 on: March 24, 2010, 01:09:46 PM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

There's always the tension in democracy of the balance leaders must strike between following the dictates of their constituency vs. striving to lead towards immediately unpopular but necessary reforms.

From what I've seen generally polls that ask Americans if they support (insert generic description of current HCR plan) the majority clearly (albeit not overwhelmingly) support it, especially if it includes language describing a public option. If polls ask whether Americans support "the Obama/ Congress's/ Democratic/currently proposed" plan they tend to split or lean opposed. That indicates when the smoke and heat from the immediate debate subsides this is a plan most Americans will support over the status quo, thus justifying Obama's firm efforts to push this through.

Put another way, half-baked accusations of death panels and the like finding some fertile ground among the gullible and temporarily reducing poll support for HCR is no reason to abandon it.

New taxes without immediate benefits won't go over well, though.

True enough, which is my biggest concern about HCR (and Obama) surviving until 2014.

Still, there are several things that help here: 1) Some popular portions of the law kick in this year, such as regulating insurance companies denying/revoking coverage; 2) The taxes effect only a tiny tiny percentage of voters (albeit a group that through their wealth has inordinate influence in politics and the media); and 3) perhaps most importantly voters and politicians are already starting to accept HCR as a done deal, which is accordingly gaining in support now that it's a reality and the world (or even the US health care system) hasn't promptly collapsed or reverted to Stalinism as predicted.

This can have negative consequences though. One the one hand, people realize the bill isn't nearly as big a deal as they thought, so those opposed to it won't really care much about it. However, supporters will also start to realize this isn't the amazing fix that would last for decades either. Honestly, I think this will be like NCLB, lots of debate when being pushed through but really not relevant when it comes to approvals and elections.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #70 on: April 17, 2010, 11:55:42 AM »

Where's RB Sad
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #71 on: May 21, 2010, 08:18:30 PM »

This looks like about the range in which military coups happen in most countries. Mercifully for President Obama, Arkansas isn't particularly representative of the United States at large, or else he might be seeking political asylum..

lol, idiot

 Grin
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #72 on: May 24, 2010, 02:52:07 PM »

WA & AL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

So this would be the map if the election were tomorrow given the approvals:

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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #73 on: May 25, 2010, 11:17:57 AM »

New Jersey (SurveyUSA, May 14-16, 600 state adults)Sad

54% Approve (+1)
42% Disapprove (-2)

(Gov. Christie)

33% Approve (nc)
62% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=011780b6-2dff-4b36-ae68-b5dcfc500cb0

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1c5092ac-bdc9-4632-a9ab-17d8fd8e08db

This is the second time they polled Obama`s approval in New Jersey, but they didn´t post the April numbers on their website.

The failure that is Chris Christie may be causing people to look at Obama a little more favorably there.

Making tough and unpopular decisions isn't failure.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
« Reply #74 on: June 28, 2010, 10:40:09 AM »


But it's Rasmussen so obviously he's really +5 there.
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