The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Devilman88]

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.

Yea, that is what I was trying to say. I have talk to alot of black folks and most of them just approve of Obama because he is black.

[Devilman88]

Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.

[Devilman88]

Colorado

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 49%

Link

Nevada]

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 54%
Link

[Devilman88]

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...

[Devilman88]

BUt the SUSA got a S... what a hack...

The first state to be polled after one of those SUSA polls (Virginia) absolutely smashed the credibility of the SUSA poll. I have changed none of them before a new poll for the state was released.

The Wisconsin poll is already obsolete, and all in all it shows an average. . 

All, I hear is.. blah blah blah, I'm a hack, I'm a hack, I worship you Obama, blah, blah..

Say whatever you want, but we all know what you are..

[Devilman88]

Go away pbrower

[Devilman88]

Great Job RB!

[Devilman88]

good job!

[Devilman88]

Iowa is not in the Rust Belt. You are in the real Rust Belt, and you didn't know Iowa wasn't...

Iowa has much heavy industry.

This is the rust belt... link

[Devilman88]

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.

The best birthday present ever!

That's my birthday too! That would be a good birthday present.

[Devilman88]

If you really think that poll is anything close to the truth, then you are stupid and need to stop posting here.

[Devilman88]

You might want to consider putting an "S" on that South Carolina poll, Pbrower...

He isn't going to do that, now if it was a poll that made Obama look bad then yes he would.

[Devilman88]

First March polls (letter C). The Texas poll is EGFP, which is not to be used:

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green

Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Surprisingly good for Obama. Still a February poll.

Maine, Mississippi, Montana, and West Virginia polls would be extremely welcome.

Texas isn't a EGFP poll...

[Devilman88]

Minnesota (Rasmussen)

49% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_governor_march_10_2010

Them aren't good numbers for Obama at all.

[Devilman88]

This is the map that goes with Sam's first chart: Blue is tie, Red Disapprove and Green Approve.

[Devilman88]

I never really trusted the Rassy numbers on NC to start with.

[Devilman88]

Wow, I didn't know that NC was so close to the National avg.

[Devilman88]

So something like this for the 2012 election results?

226 - Obama
312 - Generic Rep

No, more like this:

Obama/Biden: 279 EV/ 50% PV
Romney/Thune: 259 EV: 47% PV

(I used 2012 EV numbers off of wiki)

[Devilman88]

You may as well make all the states toss up since nobody can predict the 2012 election correctly.  If it's similar to 2000, then my map would be the closest

You are right nobody can predict the 2012 election. But I can say it will not be like 2000, because states have trend on way or another.

[Devilman88]

PPP- North Carolina Poll - Link

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%

[Devilman88]

You didn't update NC

.

PPP- North Carolina Poll - Link

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%

[Devilman88]

SUSA sez Obama`s under water evrywhere, even in fkin California !. Takea look:

California: 46-49
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 34-61
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 42-53
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washinbgton: 45-53
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd

These numbers cant possibly be right.  No way Obama is as popular as he is nationwide in California.

SUSA didn't do a national poll AFAIK. Perhaps according to them Obama is the upper 30's nationwide.

Oh wow, I don't think them numbers are right.

[Devilman88]

(Not far off from the 2008 election even without any assumptions of a dynamic advantage for an incumbent President).

Should President Obama get 42% of the vote in Kentucky in 2012, then things are probably much like 2008. Should President Obama get 48% of the vote in Kentucky, then the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2012.

You fail to see that Obama is currently in big trouble in all swing states. He has negative approvals in every state there (except maybe Iowa), which is an indicator that he has a problem with Independents. Kentucky and Georgia don´t matter, the race is not won there. Obama has to improve his numbers in these states in the coming 2 years, because winning the Kerry states plus IA, NM and NV won´t be enough for 2012 due to re-alignment of the electoral college (269-269 tie). He`ll need 1 more state than in 2008 to win, like CO, OH, VA or FL.

You can't tell him that, he can't see anything besides the inside of Obama's butt.

[Devilman88]

I looked at Bush's approval ratings around the 2004 election and his approval ratings were around 50% the same percentage he won in the election...

[Devilman88]

I been working on some new maps. These map are of Rasmussen polls number because they are the only polls they do strong/somewhat polls. What I did is I took the all of the strong numbers plus half of the somewhat numbers and added them together. That would be the first map you see. The 2nd map, is a map of giving Obama 60% of the undecided numbers.

For Example:

State Josh: Obama approval rating:

Strong Approve: 24%
Somewhat Approve: 10%
Somewhat Disapprove: 20%
Strong Disapprove: 46%

46+10=56%, 24+5=29%; basic number(first map) 56% - 29% - 15% Rep State

For 2nd map: 60% of 15= 9; 29+9=38% / 40% of 15=6; 56+6=62%

So if the election was held today the state of Josh would vote 62-38 for the Republican Candidate.


Map one:

Key:

30% shade: 0-5% lead
40% shade: 6-12% lead
50% shade: 13-20% lead
80% shade: 21 and up lead

(Grey = Tie)