The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

... Survey USA is a GOP-leaning poll.

How so ?

Electoralvote.com recognized it (with PPP  on the other side) as a partisan poll.

That said, the 2012 election is far enough away that people can be objective even if they have their biases. 

[pbrower2a]

Obama Is doing well In the states he won.Here In Missouri people are seeing he Is not the carticure Palin and others were saying.Remember Mccain only won by 4 thousand votes.
Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip In 2012.I am surprised by Kentuckey.Perhapes
White Democrats are coming around.Remember Bill Clinton won It In both 92 and 96.I would be very Intrested In poll out of West Virginia.I am also surprised by him only slightly more disapproved In Alamaba than Approve.I thought It would be higher disapproval.

I disagree with you on Missouri only with one qualification: Arizona seems more likely to flip. Although John McCain carried his home state by 8%, that is decidedly less than the usual effect (about 10-15%) of the Favorite Son effect.  To be sure, Obama did almost as well in 2008 in Massachusetts as did Kerry in 2004 -- Massachusetts wasn't going to vote for any Republican for President in either year, and probably won't for the next twenty. Obama did "only" a little better (7%)  in Illinois than did Kerry in 2004 -- but then, Obama did little campaigning in Illinois.  He did far more campaigning in Indiana, and Indiana responded as if he were a Favorite Son.

Bush won Texas by about 11% more in 2004 than did McCain in 2008.  To be sure, demographic trends (larger Hispanic electorate, more urbanization) might push Texas more toward Obama next time, the Favorite Son effect is significant.  It was enough to get South Dakota to give 45% of its vote for George McGovern in 1972 (one of his best performances in a dreadful result) in contrast to the 35% that he got in North Dakota and the 30% that he got in Nebraska.

Demographics -- Arizona has a fast-growing and young Hispanic electorate and is one of the most urban states in America (greater Phoenix and greater Tucson probably have more than 80% of the state's population) -- suggest that Arizona would have been a tough state for any Republican other than McCain to carry.  I think that Obama could lose Indiana and gain Arizona. The Republicans will not take Indiana for granted next time.

Missouri? With an effective Presidency, Obama wins Missouri -- no question.  

[pbrower2a]

snip

pbrower, this site usually uses red for disapproval/no votes, just fyi.

Does anyone want to vote on it? I find green and yellow an adequate contrast, and non-partisan. Red and green are opposites, so they are more glaring.   Green and yellow are only 60 degrees away so they have adequate contrast without glare.

I will comply with the result of a vote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That was a problem in 2008 for SUSA. But I accept it for now in view of a paucity of polls.

[pbrower2a]

Latest update:

Indiana, anyone? Louisiana? Mississippi? Montana?

First, the bad news for Obama/good news for the GOP:

One new net-negative: Oklahoma, and it is extremely close in one of the most right-wing states in America.

Now the good news for Obama: Oklahoma is one of the most right-wing states in America, and it is perhaps the only state that will vote for every imaginable GOP nominee in 2012.

Louisiana suggests a positive trend in a raft of states in the WV-LA crescent that voted strongly against Obama but voted for Clinton. Recent approval polls suggest that Obama could win such against any Republican except perhaps Huckabee (and I recognize the significance of cultural geography in voting).

[pbrower2a]

Latest update:

Indiana in! Correction made! Georgia gets cut down a bit.

[pbrower2a]

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

Lugar ran unopposed in a bad year for the Republican Party (2006) because no Democrat thought himself able to beat him.

[pbrower2a]

This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. As a rule, businesses do not hire to stimulate economic activity; they hire only after they can no longer speed up production lines and push Herculean efforts onto workers. The Darwinian cull of the workforce continues until it is unsustainable.

The current recession/depression will not end with a new speculative boom; any recovery will need a new basis -- at the least, replacement of the threadbare, wrecked, and obsolete consumer goods. New technologies and new ways of doing business will have to create economic growth that is not so much a boom as a recovery.

Many people will have to do what they did in the 1930s: establish businesses -- unglamorous start-up enterprises that can undercut cartels and trusts. But let's remember: there is no better time than a depression for starting a business. Good help is easy to find; real estate is cheap; capital is cheap; plenty of used equipment (from businesses that went under) is available; inventories are cheap.  Sweat equity builds capital without bloated bureaucracies.
 

[pbrower2a]

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.

FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?

I didn't realize that Obama was within 4 points of winning Georgia -- and the difference is slightly more than 4%.

You are right, and I make a subtle correction for the Dakotas --

Nebraska and West Virginia get very close.

[pbrower2a]

Very Important Polls (VIP's) today:

Maricopa County: 51% Excellent/Good, 44% Fair Poor

http://www.brcpolls.com/09/RMP%202009-II-01.pdf

Delaware:

62% Approve

http://www.ledgerdelaware.com/articles/2009/05/04/news/doc49ffa1c1afca0453799066.txt

Maricopa County is the political base of John McCain. In 2008 that was relevant. In 2012 that isn't.

[pbrower2a]

Latest update:

[pbrower2a]

Latest update:

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

[pbrower2a]

Latest update:

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.

Sometimes it depends upon who took the last poll. I rounded a 65% to 70% for North Carolina, and Rhode Island hasn't been polled for a long time.

[pbrower2a]

Maryland is now the largest state in electoral votes still unpolled -- not that anyone expects any surprises.

More interesting? Mississippi and Nebraska. Maybe Nevada.

[pbrower2a]

Perhaps, but the Phoenix metropolitan area is more conservative than say Denver or Las Vegas. Also, could there be some bitterness among Republican and Independent Arizonans over their favorite son's loss in the election?

That could be.

But one interesting poll is out, and even though it applies to only one congressional district, that district actually has one meaningful electoral vote: NE-02, or Greater Omaha. That was the shakiest single electoral vote for Obama, and it can be discussed:

... even if it doesn't show.

NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than Omaha (largest city: Lincoln) could be interesting. Nebraska will likely split its electoral votes again in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

This map, unlike previous ones, WILL show results for Nebraska and Maine, states that by law can split their electoral votes. Except in an utter disaster for Obama, Maine will not split its electoral votes; Nebraska barely did in 2008. Now that someone has polled NE-02, Obama's shakiest win in 2008, this map supersedes earlier ones: 

Obama's positive approval rating in Greater Omaha (NE-02) is stronger than his bare margin of  November 2008. It looks as if an election were to be held today between Obama and a generic GOP nominee (which could in theory still be John McCain), then Obama would win handily. He would win everything that he won in 2008 (I assume that he would win the District of Columbia, Maryland, Maine, Vermont, Hawaii, and Nevada, all of which were far beyond question after the 2008 election). 

I have rounded the results for North Carolina down (65% as "6" instead of "7").

[pbrower2a]

Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 

Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 

[pbrower2a]

Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

Absolutely not. 55%, tops. An approval rating does not translate smoothly into voting.

[pbrower2a]

I know my limitations, as shown in that map. I look at the approval rating, which I consider more significant than how Obama did in 2008. In relatively few States, the most recent poll suggests that Obama has popularity in the 50-60% range. That stands to be more relevant in 2012 than what Obama did in 2008. In 2008 Obama won or lost on his promises; in 2012 he runs on his record because he will have no chance to run from his record.  If Obama has an approval rating of 55% in Kentucky, then unless the GOP has strong ties to the area, Obama wins, and getting crushed there in 2008 won't matter in 2012. 

I look at the current positive rating for Obama, and if it is below 50% I give a marked edge to the Republican nominee, but it won't be large enough to suggest that Obama will get creamed there as he was in 2008. If Obama has an approval rating below 45% in a state and it is negative, then the state will go into "Strong Republican". Not even Oklahoma fits that category yet (and any state that as right-wing in its leanings as Oklahoma will not likely be close in 2012) .  I have good cause to believe that Obama will win Arizona, but right now the technique assigns Arizona to the Republicans, just as it now assigns Tennessee to Obama. A switch in those two will hardly surprise me. Perhaps many Arizonans have the hope that John McCain will be the GOP nominee in 2012.

Obama has very slight positive ratings in Utah, Georgia, and South Carolina -- but I have no cause to believe that Obama will win any of them should nothing change.  I assign them as "slight Republican", suggesting that the Republican will win those states by minuscule margins.  Obama can win Utah under some freakish circumstances, but it's too early for me to predict any freakish circumstances.

OK -- so how can I project Obama victories in Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky for now?  The positive ratings are significant, and I choose to consider them more significant than the 2008 election. Arkansas would be in the same group -- except that Huckabee could be the GOP nominee for VP, and that makes Arkansas too difficult to predict... for now.

South Dakota? The current strong positive is more powerful than the 2008 result. Such is the rule.

Now, as for states not yet polled....

Does anyone now think that if Obama does well in New Hampshire, that he won't do exceedingly well in Maine and Vermont in 2012 as in 2008? Does anyone expect Obama to not do well in Maryland or Dee Cee? Neighboring states that are politically analogous suggest that nothing will change.  Hawaii has no neighboring state, so I use its 2008 results.  The same is true of Alaska, so I must assume that it will vote in 2012 as in 2008 until I see indications to the contrary. Idaho? Wyoming? They are more analogous to each other than to any other states -- even Utah. If polls in either state suggest that they give Obama about the same level of support as Utah, then I reduce them.

Montana and especially North Dakota have a good analogue in South Dakota, and my model calls them toss-ups until I see otherwise. I haven't shown as much certitude on Nevada; even though it voted for Obama by a double-digit margin, that was a shock on November 4, 2008; I attribute that to the mortgage meltdown which won't be repeated. I can easily put Nevada into the "Strong Obama" category with any poll that shows an approval rating above 55%.

Now -- swing states of 2008. Colorado is in the weak Obama category because of a very thin positive poll and its 2008 performance. An earlier poll was more positive, but I go with the more recent one.  Such is the rule. An average of 2008 performance and the most recent polls put Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri (which Obama lost -- barely), and Indiana   into the "Weak Obama" category. Ohio goes into the strong zone, as do Iowa and New Hampshire. Swing states of 2008 will be very interesting for a very long time in 2012.

Finally -- Nebraska. NE-02 (Greater Omaha) barely barely voted for Obama, but support for Obama in that district is about ten points higher. NE-01 is more  GOP-leaning, but not that much more, so I could just as easily color it "Barely Republican" as "Barely Democratic". Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa. As you will see I couldn't call it a tossup in my map because I colored the toss-ups white, and that would make NE-01 disappear.

Nebraska is politically between Kansas (my scheme shows it "Barely Republican" and South Dakota "Barely Obama"). That suggests a toss-up. NE-03 of course is one of the most right-wing districts in America; it would vote for a liberal Democrat only against a madman, commie, fascist, or KKK member.

Nobody knows who the Republican nominee will be, and that will decide to no small extent which states Obama will win and which ones he will lose. If it's Huckabee, then Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and likely Georgia are off limits to Obama; political culture matters greatly.  Positive ratings for Obama just won't be enough for him to win those states. If it's Romney, then Obama likely wins all of those states -- and Arkansas. 

Not the big qualification I give: if nothing really changes before 2012. That is a huge assumption, as all sorts of weird events can transpire. One thing is certain: nobody knows who the GOP nominee will be.  I can imagine Obama picking off Utah against Huckabee and losing it by a 75-25 margin to Romney. I can still imagine one of the GOP candidates dropping out early and running on the Reform ticket, which really messes things up.

Above all else, Obama could still fail as President. There's plenty of time for that. There's plenty of time for a nutty leader in Iran or North Korea to do something incredibly stupid and cruel. The Big Three automakers could go bankrupt, and subsidized banks could fail. It is conceivable that some natural disaster could catch Obama off guard and overtax his abilities as Hurricane Katrina showed how incompetent Dubya was. The Stock Market could conceivably go to 2000. It's also possible that America could undergo a new Religious Revival that causes Americans to support a strident anti-abortion, pro-business, anti-environmentalist, anti-union candidate who rides such a tide.  All of those are possible, and I can imagine many Americans seeking to renew their passports if such happens. Likely? Probably not. It's also possible that Usama bin Laden ends up in US custody -- or that we get to see his cadaver somewhere.

Some of my choices are arbitrary -- and they are on the margin. Look at Utah.  They show the limitations of my knowledge -- limitations that everyone has. My assumption that on the net nothing happens to change things is an average of the possibilities is itself a whopper of an assumption.   



 
 

[pbrower2a]

Updated map:

66% Minnesota, 55% Nevada... eleven states outstanding.

Mississippi anyone? North Dakota? Montana?

Colorado or Arizona again?

[pbrower2a]

(snip)

Colorado or Arizona again?

Very interesting. I wonder if Colorado and Arizona are outliers, or if the mountain west libertarianism is starting to show itself. I really didn't expect him to have low approvals out here this early, but if these polls aren't outliers, I can see why.

Possible explanation. I would have never expected Colorado to be a near-tossup with Obama holding a 60% nationwide approval. Coloradans and Arizonans might vote differently from that pattern in 2012 if the GOP nominee is not a libertarian. I can't see any potential GOP nominee (that of course excludes Ron Paul, who would do very well in the Mountain West if he were nominated) as a libertarian.

Who runs will matter greatly. The only question about Obama as the nominee for the Democratic Party has an actuarial answer.

[pbrower2a]

I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...

If as the bromide goes, a conservative is a liberal who was just mugged...

a libertarian stranded in a traffic jam begins to think of the government as a possible solution.

[pbrower2a]

NC should be 50%

Most of them should be lighter, he has this weird rounding thing he's doing to make Obama look more popular.

I did round up the 56% disapproval in Oklahoma.

Translation:

Disapproval greater than approval:

darkest "yellow" -- 56-65% (Oklahoma)
darkened  yellow -- 50-55%
pale yellow -- under 50% but larger than approval

Exact equality -- probably white, but none show.

palest green -- under 50%, but more than disapproval
medium green --   50-55%
darkened green -- 56-65%
dark green -- 66-75%
very dark green --76-85%

[pbrower2a]

Updated map:

Alabama looks like an outlier, but I follow the rule of using the latest poll. Oklahoma makes more sense (56% disapproval, and I round that up). Oklahoma could go 60-40 for the GOP in an Obama landslide in 2012.  Virginia is also at 56% approval, and that's hardly surprising, considering how it voted.

[pbrower2a]

Oklahoma. lol.

Two Senators best described as border-line fascists. Few states have even one.