The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Why anyone would take a KOS poll seriously is beyond me.

Because they were accurate last year?

[Lief 🗽]

If you look at pollster, Obama clearly got quite a bump from his healthcare speech. Hopefully it translates into state polls so that map becomes less ugly.

[Lief 🗽]

North Carolina (Rasmussen)

47% Approve
52% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, September 15, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/toplines/toplines_2010_north_carolina_senate_september_15_2009

That's not that bad, considering it's North Carolina and Rasmussen's Republican house effect.

[Lief 🗽]

If the election were held today, Obama would obviously win, as a majority of Americans approve of the job he's doing.

[Lief 🗽]

New York (Rasmussen)

61% Approve
38% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/new_york_senate_gillibrand_narrowly_leads_pataki

NY still loves a black.

But hates the other one.

[Lief 🗽]

Today's trackers:
Rass - 51/48
Gallup - 50/42

Rass is higher than Gallup... is this a sign of the apocalypse or something?

Yeah, but if Gallup pushed undecideds like Rass does, they'd probably still be higher.

[Lief 🗽]

Virginia (Rasmussen)

52% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_september_29_2009

Obama is more popular in Virginia than he is nationally? er...

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's gotten a pretty clear bump for some reason: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Probably because healthcare looks like it might pass now, as opposed to August? Or Dems and Independents tuning back in?

[Lief 🗽]

Lief, Lief, Lief! Why would he get a positive bump in the polls if most polls show Americans disapproving of healthcare reform?

Er... not really. They're pretty mixed, and Americans still strongly support most of the individual parts of the reform package.

[Lief 🗽]

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)

Obama is surging.

[Lief 🗽]

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)

Obama is surging.

I'll wait until I see other, non-Gallup  polls to be sure.

Er... other non-Gallup polls are showing pretty much exactly the same numbers (except R(epublican)assmussen).

[Lief 🗽]

Tsk tsk tsk...

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10. This is the fourth straight day the Approval Index has been in negative double digits"

WHY HASN'T OBAMA RESIGNED YET

[Lief 🗽]

It better not pass, I don't want an increase in my taxes.

So you're a rich?

[Lief 🗽]

you guys are way too easily trolled by vanderblubb

[Lief 🗽]

^lol

[Lief 🗽]

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.

Even so, his floor in South Carolina based on that black support is lower than 46%.

[Lief 🗽]

Texas(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_governor_s_race_january_17_2010

Those numbers are heartening.

[Lief 🗽]

New York(Rasmussen)

Approve 56%
Disapprove 43%

Rasmussen's state approval polls seem very "flat", in that there's less deviation from the national numbers state by state than one would expect: Obama is both doing worse in Democratic strongholds (NY) than one would expect based on his national numbers and better in Republican strongholds (TX) that one would expect. No way to know, though, if this is actually happening or if it's just one of Scotty's many polling quirks.

[Lief 🗽]

North Carolina(PPP)
Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_219.pdf

Washington and Kansas updated. Oregon is not updated because the Rasmussen poll is more recent.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

VA should be a lighter shade.

[Lief 🗽]

p2, liberals always use the cell phone argument, but the fact is that in most polls, democrats outpoll their actual support/margin in elections by 3-4%.  Everyone - not just the young or hispanic has a cell phone now - a republican is just as likely as a democrat to have one.  I don't buy it.

cite?

[Lief 🗽]

p2, liberals always use the cell phone argument, but the fact is that in most polls, democrats outpoll their actual support/margin in elections by 3-4%.  Everyone - not just the young or hispanic has a cell phone now - a republican is just as likely as a democrat to have one.  I don't buy it.

cite?

Just for you Lief - though Im only doing it once, and then you're done getting a response from me on citation, as no other republican is asked on this board to do that other than me. 

Actual margin: 7.27
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9

Tester actual margin: .87
Rasmussen 11/04 - 11/04 500 LV 48% 50% Tester +2%
USA Today/Gallup 11/01 - 11/04 874 LV 41% 50% Tester +9%

Begich 1.25
Research 2000 10/28 - 10/30 600 LV 58 36 Begich +22
Rasmussen 10/28 - 10/28 500 LV 52 44 Begich +8

Udall 10.31
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 409 RV 51 36 Udall +15
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 626 LV 48 36 Udall +12
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 10/21 - 10/23 500 LV 51 38 Udall +13

Shaheen 6.34
Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 700 LV 52 44 Shaheen +8
SurveyUSA 10/29 - 10/30 682 LV 53 40 Shaheen +13
ARG 10/28 - 10/30 600 LV 53 41 Shaheen +12

Shall I Go On?

Yes, of course. Five races out of thousands doesn't prove anything.

[Lief 🗽]

Minnesota (Rasmussen)

49% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_governor_march_10_2010

Them aren't good numbers for Obama at all.

Those. Those aren't good numbers for Obama at all. Alternatively they. But not them.

[Lief 🗽]

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[Lief 🗽]

Obama has gained back his base and that is good news for the democrats in 2010. Of course it all depends on what the definition of "good news" is. I still think they will lose up to 30 seats in the house, and maybe more, but it won't be anything ridiculous like 50-60 seats. If the economy really starts booming and some good jobs numbers come out (like +150-200k jobs at the least), the democrats may be able to contain their losses to just around 20-25. This is not likely though.

32% is better than 23%.  (I actually LOLed at your post, though I agree with it.)

There are some problems, however.

That "strongly disapproved" number is still very high.  It has been lower in the last fortnight and looks solid.  Those are people that say, "I hate Obama's guts."  That is still out there, and Obamacare didn't help.  At best, this stopped liberal leakage (I think "hemorrhaging" was too strong.)

Second, there are other issues, notably the economy.  Obamacare has not helped with that, and may easily be charged with only pushing his agenda.

I was looking at 30-35 initially, but now would say a 50% that the House is captured by the GOP.

How big do you figure the Bradley Effect will be this year? 3-5%?

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

Its just going to get worse for Obama.

Oh wow, you can see the future? Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers?